The election in Thailand is unpredictable.

Báo Cần Thơ•12/05/2023

TRI VAN (Compiled)

Over 52 million Thai voters will cast their ballots on May 14th for the new House of Representatives election. If no single party wins a majority to form a government, they will have to cooperate with other parties to form a coalition government. This coalition government must win at least 251 out of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the candidate for prime minister remains the most interesting and unpredictable issue.

Pita Limjaroenrat is currently the leading candidate, receiving 35.44% of the vote in a NIDA opinion poll conducted on May 3rd. (Photo: Nikkei Asia)

To be chosen as prime minister, a candidate needs to win at least 376 out of 750 votes from parliament (including the Senate and the House of Representatives). Additionally, only candidates representing a political party that wins at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives will be considered for the prime ministership.

Most notably, this year's race for the Thai prime ministership also features young candidates, including Pita Limjaroenrat. The 43-year-old leader of the Forward March party studied at Harvard University before entering politics , later becoming an entrepreneur and CEO of Grab, a Thai ride-hailing service. In 2019, Pita was first elected as a member of parliament. He impressed with his speeches on agricultural policy. Some analysts believe Pita has steered the Forward March towards a more moderate stance. This is the only party committed to reforming Thailand's lèse-majesté law, one of the world's harshest laws, which carries up to 15 years in prison for insulting, defaming, or criticizing the king or members of the royal family. Pita has declared his intention to demilitarize politics, end compulsory military service, and crack down on monopolies that dominate the Thai economy. In a public opinion poll conducted by Thailand's National Institute for Development Administration (NIDA) on May 3rd, he emerged as the most popular prime ministerial candidate, with 35.44% of the vote.

Besides Mr. Pita, Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36 years old, is also a strong candidate. She is the youngest daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Ms. Paetongtarn campaigned primarily in rural areas. At an event in March, she outlined several policies, including improving working conditions, pledging to nearly double the daily minimum wage to 600 baht (US$17.61), reducing pollution, and transforming Thailand into a fintech hub. She is currently the director of a real estate company and a major shareholder in another business. In a March poll, 32.1% of respondents supported her as prime minister, the highest among the candidates. However, in a NIDA poll on May 3rd, she ranked second with 29.2% of the vote. Nevertheless, her Pheu Thai party is leading in recent polls.

According to The Guardian, Paetongtarn studied in the UK and then worked in her family's business empire before recently entering politics. On May 1st, she gave birth to her second child, but just two days later she returned to the campaign trail. However, there are growing concerns that a victory for the youngest daughter of Thaksin, Thailand's most divisive figure, who was overthrown in a military coup in 2006 and lived in exile for over a decade to avoid prosecution for abuse of power, could plunge the country back into its familiar cycle of protests and military intervention.

Meanwhile, incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is also a formidable opponent. Prayuth came to power in 2014 after a military coup and was officially elected Prime Minister in the 2019 election. He is campaigning for re-election as the representative of the United Thai National Party (UTN). His supporters say he has brought stability to Thailand and have praised his efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, recent opinion polls show he is lacking support, receiving only 14.84% of the vote in a NIDA poll on May 3rd. He faces strong opposition from young, pro-democracy voters who accuse him of hindering Thailand's development.

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