Thailand's unpredictable election

TRI VAN (Synthesis)

More than 52 million Thais will go to the polls on May 14 to elect a new House of Representatives. If no party wins a majority to form a government, they will have to work with other parties to form a coalition government. Accordingly, the coalition government must win at least 251 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the candidate for prime minister is the most interesting and unpredictable issue.

Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat is currently the most promising candidate, receiving 35.44% of the vote in a NIDA opinion poll on May 3. Photo: Nikkei Asia

To be elected prime minister, a candidate must win at least 376 out of 750 votes from the parliament (including the Senate and the House of Representatives). In addition, only candidates representing a political party that wins at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives can be considered for the role of prime minister.

Most notably, the race for Thailand's prime minister this year also includes young candidates, including Pita Limjaroenrat. The 43-year-old leader of the Forward Party studied at Harvard University (USA) before entering politics , then became a businessman and CEO of Thailand's Grab service. In 2019, Mr. Pita was first elected as a member of parliament. He made an impression with his speech on agricultural policy. Some analysts say Mr. Pita has led the Forward Party to a more moderate stance. This is the only party that has pledged to push for reform of Thailand's lese majeste law, one of the harshest in the world, with up to 15 years in prison for insulting, defaming, or criticizing the king or members of the royal family. Mr. Pita has vowed to demilitarize politics, end compulsory military service, and tackle monopolies that dominate the Thai economy. In a poll by Thailand's National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) on May 3, he emerged as the most popular prime ministerial candidate, with 35.44% of the vote.

Besides Mr. Pita, Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36 years old, is also a potential candidate. She is the youngest child of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Ms. Paetongtarn campaigned mainly in rural areas. At an event in March, Ms. Paetongtarn outlined a number of policies, including improving working conditions, pledging to nearly double the daily minimum wage to 600 baht ($17.61), reduce pollution and turn Thailand into a financial technology hub. She is currently the director of a real estate company and a major shareholder in another. In a March poll, Ms. Paetongtarn had the highest support among the candidates for prime minister at 32.1%. However, in a May 3 NIDA poll, she came in second, with 29.2%. However, her Pheu Thai Party has been leading in recent polls.

According to the Guardian, Ms. Paetongtarn studied in the UK and then worked in her family's business empire before recently entering politics. On May 1, Ms. Paetongtarn gave birth to her second child but just two days later returned to the campaign trail. However, there are concerns that a victory for the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin, Thailand's most divisive figure, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and lived in exile for more than a decade to avoid prosecution for abuse of power, could plunge the country back into a familiar cycle of protests and military intervention.

Meanwhile, incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is also a formidable opponent. Prayuth came to power in a 2014 military coup and was officially elected prime minister in the 2019 election. He is running for re-election as a representative of the United Thai Party (UTN). Prayuth's supporters say he has brought stability to Thailand and have praised his efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, recent opinion polls show he is lacking support, receiving only 14.84% of the vote in the NIDA poll on May 3. He is strongly opposed by young pro-democracy voters, who accuse him of holding back Thailand's development.

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