Cocoa prices hit a new all-time high.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, cocoa prices surged nearly 7%, setting a new all-time high.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the global raw materials market showed mixed performance in yesterday's trading session (December 18). Notably, industrial raw materials led the overall market increase, with cocoa prices soaring by nearly 7%, setting a new historical high. In addition, the energy sector also performed well, with 4 out of 5 commodities experiencing price increases. At closing, buying pressure prevailed, pushing the MXV-Index up slightly by 0.06% to 2,202 points.

MXV-Index

Selling pressure dominated the industrial raw materials market.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, red dominated the industrial raw materials price chart. Contrary to the general trend, attention shifted to cocoa, with prices surging nearly 7%, setting a new historical high. The main reason for the continued high cocoa prices is the unfavorable weather conditions and supply shortages faced by West Africa, the region that produces and supplies about three-quarters of the world's cocoa. In addition, increased speculative buying at the end of the year further exacerbated the situation.

Industrial raw material price list

In Ivory Coast, farmers in most cocoa-growing regions are concerned that a lack of rain and hot weather have hampered the development of the main crop season (October to March). This year, the dry season started earlier than usual, beginning in November, intensifying concerns about drought reducing yields.

Previously, cooperatives, buyers, and purchasing agents all indicated that the majority of the main harvest had been completed by November, and shortages were expected to continue into February or March. Meanwhile, multinational exporters are concerned about the risk of contract breaches as they estimate that supply from farmers will not meet demand, and may even decrease in the coming months due to crop failures.

Regarding export volume, consulting firm StoneX estimates that cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast during the 2024-2025 season have increased by more than 30% compared to the same period of the previous season, but decreased by 10% to 28% compared to the same period of the four preceding seasons. This, along with poor production in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, in recent seasons, has driven inventories at the ICE-US exchange down to just over 1.4 million bags, the lowest level ever.

Coffee prices diverged as they reacted to conflicting fundamental information. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 2.37% while Robusta coffee prices decreased by 0.56% compared to the benchmark.

Concerns about a lack of rain in Brazil are driving prices up. The Somar Meteorological Agency reported that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica coffee-producing state, reached only 35.2 mm last week, 65% of the historical average. This means Brazil's main coffee-growing region has consistently recorded low rainfall since April. This negatively impacts the development of coffee plants for the 2025-2026 crop year, leading to a less favorable supply outlook.

Energy markets reacted mixedly to the Fed's decision.

Crude oil prices fluctuated yesterday, as the market reacted mixedly to the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment decision and US crude oil inventory data.

Energy price list

WTI crude oil prices rose 0.71% to $70.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices increased 0.27% to $73.39 per barrel.

In this week's Oil and Gas report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said commercial crude oil inventories in the country fell by 934,000 barrels compared to the previous week, to nearly 421 million barrels. The EIA's reported decrease was lower than the 4.7 million barrel drop reported by the American Petroleum Institute the day before, as well as analysts' expectations of a 1.6 million barrel decrease. Nevertheless, this information had a bullish impact on oil prices yesterday.

In addition, Kazakhstan's delay in increasing production also contributed to supporting oil prices. Specifically, Kazakhstan stated that it would adhere to the quotas set by OPEC+ and postpone plans to increase oil production by an additional 190,000 barrels per day in 2025.

At its December policy meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to around 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. However, the Fed also signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, following relatively stable US unemployment and little recent improvement in inflation. Fed policymakers forecast only two 25-basis-point rate cuts next year. The Fed's decision pushed the US dollar sharply higher to its highest level since late 2022, making crude oil more expensive for international buyers and hindering further price increases.

Prices of some other goods

Agricultural product price list

Metal price list

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-hom-nay-1912-gia-ca-cao-lap-dinh-lich-su-moi-365020.html