Robusta coffee prices rise again, US inflation cools down; what are the market forecasts for 2025?

Rabobank researchers say that coffee is trading well above its production costs, so production will increase and demand will fall this year. In addition, the EU’s temporary suspension of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to bring stability to markets.

Coffee price today 16/1/2025

World coffee prices rose again on both London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices rose again after many consecutive declines since the beginning of the week. Arabica coffee prices increased very strongly.

Domestic coffee prices range from 115,000 to 115,500 VND/kg. Up to now, domestic coffee prices are still around 120,000 VND/kg, up nearly 80% compared to the beginning of last year and 2.5-3 times higher than previous years.

The news of a slowdown in US inflation announced on January 15 helped the two coffee exchanges rise again, even though the USD remained high. The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, higher than the 0.3% forecast by experts. Compared to the same period last year, the CPI increased by 2.9%, matching expectations. The financial markets reacted positively to these figures.

In addition, industry experts say that freight rates are one of the reasons for the increase in global coffee prices. In late 2023, the conflict through the Red Sea - a vital route for coffee supply from Asia to North America and Europe - escalated sharply, forcing shipping lines to change routes, increasing shipping times by 10-14 days and increasing costs by about 60%.

Brazilian government data shows that the country exported 200,000 tonnes of coffee in December 2024, down 17.1% from the same period in 2023. Industry experts have warned that coffee exports in Brazil are being disrupted due to logistical difficulties at export ports.

The coffee market is currently focused on the progress of the harvest in Vietnam and the size of the upcoming crop in top producer Brazil, which is expected to depend on the extent of damage caused by drought last year. Good yields and high coffee prices in the domestic market have helped coffee farmers earn good incomes. Farmers have finished harvesting but are in no hurry to sell, so there are many goods but transactions are quiet. This has caused Vietnam's coffee export output in the fourth quarter of 2024 to decrease by more than 40% compared to the same period in 2023.

Compared to many years, this year, Vietnam's harvest is much later. In terms of output, initial forecasts estimated a decrease of 10 - 15%, but up to this point, according to information from the Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), we can be optimistic that output will only decrease slightly by about 5% compared to the same period last year.

Domestic coffee prices on January 15 continued to decrease by 700 - 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Giacaphe)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on January 15, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased by 49 USD, trading at 4,912 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 60 USD, trading at 4,856 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the March 2025 delivery term increasing by 8.50 cents, trading at 330.45 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased by 8.05 cents, trading at 326.05 cents/lb. The average trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on January 15 continued to decrease by 700 - 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,164	- 9
DAK LAK	114,500	- 700
LAM DONG	114,000	- 700
GIA LAI	114,000	- 800
DAK NONG	114,500	- 1,000

(Source: giacaphe.com)

2024 was a particularly difficult year for the coffee industry, with adverse weather conditions leading to supply challenges in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the European Anti-Deforestation Regulation and other factors pushing coffee futures prices to record highs.

For the whole year of 2024, the average export price of coffee is estimated at 4,158 USD/ton, an increase of 59.1% compared to 2023.

This increase has put a lot of pressure on the green coffee supply chain, according to analysts. The next 12 months will be challenging for the coffee industry, and consumers will certainly continue to pay high prices for coffee, while ongoing economic restrictions around the world are likely to impact consumption.

Meanwhile, according to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in 2025, world coffee prices are likely to decrease due to supply recovery. Global coffee production is expected to recover in the 2024-2025 crop year, mainly due to increased output in Vietnam and Indonesia. In addition, the market still expects Brazil's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year to recover when rainfall in major growing regions improves. European countries' demand for coffee imports will also temporarily subside when the EUDR regulation is postponed to the end of 2025.

Global coffee exports in 2025 are projected to increase modestly as increased shipments from Vietnam and Indonesia offset an expected decline in exports from Brazil. Specifically, Vietnam’s coffee exports are projected to increase by 1.8 million bags in 2025 to 24.4 million bags due to improved supplies. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption in 2025 is projected to increase by 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million bags.

Meanwhile, Rabobank researchers say that coffee is trading at a significant premium to its production costs, so production will increase and demand will fall this year. In addition, the EU’s temporary suspension of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to bring stability to markets.

The coffee market in 2025 is forecast to remain vibrant, with a mix of risks and opportunities. Factors such as weather, currency fluctuations, and global supply and demand will determine the direction of coffee prices in the coming year. With many potential uncertainties, coffee is likely to continue to be one of the most notable commodities in the global commodity market.

According to the USDA, Vietnam's coffee exports are forecast to continue to grow by 2025 as supply increases and consumer demand from countries around the world increases.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1612025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-tro-lai-lam-phat-my-ha-nhiet-cac-du-bao-ve-thi-truong-nam-2025-the-nao-301046.html