The coffee market in 2025 is forecast to be dynamic, full of risks and opportunities. Factors such as weather, currency fluctuations and global supply and demand will continue to play an important role in determining price trends in the coming time. It is forecasted that coffee may continue to be one of the prominent commodities in the global commodity market.
Coffee price today 17/1/2025
World coffee prices fell simultaneously on both London and New York exchanges. Arabica coffee prices reversed course after a very strong increase.
Domestic coffee prices have increased sharply following the influence of the world market, currently fluctuating between 115,600 - 116,300 VND/kg.
Coffee prices on both exchanges are under pressure from rising inventories. In addition, traders say Brazil’s robusta crop is in good condition and Brazil could even surpass Vietnam as the world’s largest robusta producer this year.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year will recover thanks to increased output in Vietnam and Indonesia. In addition, the market still expects that Brazil's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year can recover when rainfall in the main coffee growing regions improves.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that more than 70% of the coffee area has been harvested and will reach about 90% of the area before Tet. Compared to many years, this year's harvest is much later. In terms of output, initial forecasts estimated a decrease of 10-15%, but at this point we can be optimistic that the output will only decrease slightly by about 5% compared to the same period last year.
Rabobank researchers say that these commodities are trading at a significant premium to their production costs, so production will increase and demand will fall this year. In addition, the EU’s temporary suspension of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to bring stability to markets.
Meanwhile, global coffee consumption in 2025 is expected to increase by 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million bags, with most of the increase coming from the European Union (EU), the United States and China.
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| Domestic coffee prices on January 16 increased sharply by 1,500 - 1,800 in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Freepik) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on January 16, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 23 USD, trading at 4,889 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 10 USD, trading at 4,846 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the March 2025 delivery term down 3.15 cents, trading at 327.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term fell 3.7 cents, trading at 323.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
Domestic coffee prices on January 16 increased sharply by 1,500 - 1,800 in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that according to preliminary statistics, Vietnam's coffee exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 are estimated at 208.4 thousand tons, worth 1.16 billion USD, down 43.7% in volume, but up 3.9% in value compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
In 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated to reach 1.32 million tons, worth 5.48 billion USD, down 18.8% in volume but up 29.1% in value compared to 2023.
In 2024, world coffee prices will continue to set new records, mainly due to concerns about supply shortages from major exporting countries such as Vietnam and Brazil due to unfavorable weather. Along with that, the increase in buying by hedge funds and the increase in tensions in the Red Sea, which have increased shipping costs, are also factors that have caused coffee prices to increase sharply. In addition, coffee prices are also supported by countries increasing their stockpiles due to concerns that Europe will implement the EUDR after December 30, 2024.
However, 2024 is also a special year for the coffee industry and for the first time, Vietnamese coffee prices are the highest in the world. Robusta coffee export prices are higher than Arabica coffee prices, which has never happened before. In December 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee is estimated at 5,450 USD/ton, down slightly by 2.3% compared to November 2024, but up sharply by 88.8% compared to December 2023. Overall, in 2024, the average export price of coffee is estimated at 4,158 USD/ton, up 59.1% compared to 2023.
It is forecasted that in 2025, Vietnam's coffee exports will continue to grow as supply increases and consumer demand from countries around the world increases.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1712025-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-quay-xe-tang-manh-yen-tam-ve-san-luong-nam-thanh-cong-cua-ca-phe-viet-301144.html
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