Gold price is expected to soon reach 100 million VND/tael

In his report “Global Commodities Outlook 2024”, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that as macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, gold prices will likely hit new highs in 2024 and may even reach $3,000. At this level, SJC gold is equivalent to VND100 million/tael.

Mike McGlone listed the factors that will impact the global recession, which in turn will determine the trend of precious metals. These are interest rates, energy,...

The world gold price is forecast to soon reach 3,000 USD/ounce. At this level, the price of SJC gold is equivalent to 100 million VND/tael. Illustrative photo

On interest rates, Mike McGlone warned that the impact of coordinated central bank rate hikes in 2023 may not be fully felt until 3Q24, adding that “US equities may need to maintain their resilience otherwise deflation could be the dominant theme a year from now.”

“Most central banks tightened in Q3, which could mean the full impact won’t be felt until Q3/24, with bullish implications for gold,” McGlone added.

“Debt typically increases relative to GDP and precious metals outperform industrials during a US recession. Gold’s rise relative to most commodities in 2023 could be a sign of what to expect as the impact of a sharp rate hike in 2022-23 kicks in,” McGlone added.

“Another signal of a global recession is that energy is at the bottom of our annual commodity performance scorecard and precious metals are at the top,” said McGlone.

The main factor that could accelerate this trend, according to McGlone, is a typical recession-induced decline in US stock markets. If that can be avoided and Europe and China recover from their growth slumps – after the most aggressive period of global central bank tightening on record, which may not end until Q3 – commodity prices could stabilize by 2024.

Another trend that could accelerate in 2024 is lower energy prices relative to rising gold prices.

“Gold’s rise and oil’s fall could tilt the market in 2024,” he said. “A price per ounce of the metal at less than half the S&P 500 is a historic low, especially if the economy is in recession.”

Another sign that gold is gearing up for another positive year in 2024 is that outflows from gold ETFs in Q4 were lower than in previous years.

“Gold ETFs typically see outflows in the fourth quarter, but 2023 could be a reversal of the trend, with implications for prices,” he said.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/gia-vang-duoc-du-bao-som-dat-100-trieu-dong-luong-post279998.html