Gold prices lack clear direction, market sentiment is divided, is there any reason to be optimistic?

Gold prices today, August 14, 2023, started the new week with a divided sentiment on the market trend of Wall Street analysts, while retail investors remained quite optimistic about its prospects. Gold prices fell more than 1.5% over the past week.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 8/14 and EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 8/14

1. PNJ - Updated: August 14, 2023 02:30 - Time of website supply - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell
HCMC - PNJ	56,000	57,000
HCMC - SJC	66,750	67,300
Hanoi - PNJ	56,000	57,000
Hanoi - SJC	66,750	67,300
Da Nang - PNJ	56,000	57,000
Da Nang - SJC	66,750	67,300
Western Region - PNJ	56,000	57,000
Western Region - SJC	66,750	67,300
Jewelry gold price - PNJ rings (24K)	56,000	56,950
Jewelry Gold Price - 24K Jewelry	55,900	56,700
Jewelry Gold Price - 18K Jewelry	41,280	42,680
Jewelry Gold Price - 14K Jewelry	31,920	33,320
Jewelry Gold Price - 10K Jewelry	22,340	23,740

World gold prices edged up slightly again in the last trading session of the week, after consecutive declines due to the latest news from the US economy .

Gold prices recorded the deepest weekly decline in 7 weeks, due to the strong US dollar and rising bond yields after traders received the latest inflation data. At the end of the trading session last week (August 11), the world gold price listed on Kitco floor was at 1,913.1 - 1,914.1 USD/ounce, only slightly adjusted by 1.3 USD/ounce compared to the previous trading session. The price of gold for December delivery reached 1,945.85 USD.

Retail investors remained bullish on gold this week, while Wall Street analysts were divided on the direction of the precious metals market.

Gold has been on a downward trend, down 1% in the past week, as US economic data released CPI and PPI showed inflationary pressures persist. The precious metal has been limited in its price action as the price trend lacks clear direction, as market participants remain divided on whether the US Federal Reserve’s peak interest rates have been reached, or if more rate hikes are still in store.

Gold price today August 14, 2023: Gold price lacks direction, market sentiment is divided, is there any reason to be optimistic? (Source: Kitco News)

Retail investors expect gold prices to post solid gains in the week ending August 18, according to the latest Kitco News weekly gold survey. Meanwhile, market analysts remain cautious as they await definitive direction from economic indicators and technical trends.

The domestic gold price on the morning of August 12 suddenly increased sharply, with an increase of 200,000 VND/tael. Along with that, the difference between buying and selling prices was narrowed by businesses to 500,000 - 600,000 VND/tael, the lowest level in the past 3 years. According to experts, businesses narrowed the difference between buying and selling prices due to a shortage of supply. This is to "attract" gold from the people.

This week, 13 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Both bullish and bearish votes were received by 4 (31%). Meanwhile, 5 analysts (38%) were neutral on gold prices for the week.

Meanwhile, of the 573 votes cast in online polls, 320 people (56%) predicted gold prices to rise this week; another 155 (27%) predicted lower; while the remaining 98 (17%) were neutral.

Gold prices have increased throughout the week. Currently, the ceiling price for buying SJC gold bars is 66.8 million VND/tael and the ceiling price for selling SJC gold bars is 67.52 million VND/tael. Jewelry gold prices remained flat in both buying and selling directions during the weekend session.

Vietnamese gold consumption has decreased for two consecutive quarters, bringing purchasing power in the first 6 months of the year to more than 68% compared to the same period last year and over 71% compared to before the pandemic. According to the World Gold Council's report, Vietnam's gold demand in the second quarter reached 12.7 tons, down 9% compared to the same period in 2022. Demand for gold bars and gold coins decreased by 5%. The same thing happened to jewelry gold when demand decreased from 4.5 tons in the second quarter of 2022 to 3.7 tons in the previous quarter, equivalent to a decrease of 18%.

Previously, gold consumption in the first quarter also decreased by 12% compared to the same period in 2022. With two consecutive quarters of decline, the total gold consumption of Vietnamese people in the first half of the year was only 22.9 tons, down nearly 32% compared to the same period last year (33.6 tons). Compared to the year before the pandemic (2019), purchasing power also decreased by nearly 29%.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last weekend's trading session (August 11):

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 66.90 - 67.52 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists the price of SJC gold at: 66.80 - 67.50 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.75 - 67.30 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.92 - 67.48 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 56.16 - 57.01 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.50 - 56.70 million VND/tael.

Gold price forecast?

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management , believes gold will make some gains this week. "There is a tug of war between negative forces -- primarily tightening, including the possibility of rate hikes -- and positive forces, notably the end of rate hikes, especially in the U.S., before inflation is tamed."

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, sees gold continuing its recent downtrend. “I expect gold to fall next week,” Cieszynski said. “The 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, creating a headwind for the USD. The next big event is the Jackson Hole meeting in two weeks. Until then, gold will just trade inversely to the USD and not much else will happen.”

The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $1,974 an ounce this week.

The big events this week for precious metals are the July U.S. retail sales and the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The latest information will help the market understand how consumers are feeling and how the Fed feels about the economy.

Darin Newsom, senior market strategist at Barchart.com , is sticking with his bullish forecast for the yellow metal.

Kitco expert Jim Wyckoff sees the slow downtrend continuing this week. Steady lower as the downtrend plays out on the daily volume chart.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, is neutral on gold in the short term. “There is no urgency to get into the gold market,” Hansen said. “We don’t see any triggers for higher prices anytime soon.”

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA , also sees gold trading sideways next week. “The long-term interest in gold is there but it’s going to be a difficult environment,” Moya said. “Gold will struggle until we see a market risk event.”

Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, sees gold bottoming before rising next week. “I had expected gold to rally after the US CPI and US returns, but alas, the US dollar and US interest rates proved more dovish and gold reached close to $1,910 before the weekend.” “The bearish bias is holding back and I think the risk-reward ahead of the 200-day moving average around $1,900 still favors bottom picking.” “A close above the $1,920 area would help solidify the market bottom.”

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