Domestic gold price "overthrew" the old peak, world gold found new momentum, continuing to break out this week?

Gold prices today, March 4, 2024, both domestically and internationally are anchored quite firmly at an unprecedented high. SJC gold bar prices, after reaching a new peak, are now falling close to the threshold of 80 million VND/tael. World gold prices have found new momentum, increasing sharply in the weekend session. What do experts predict about the domestic and world markets this week?

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 3/4 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 3/4

1. SJC - Updated: 03/02/2024 15:28 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell out
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG	77,800	80,300
SJC 5c	77,800	80,320
SJC 2c, 1C, 5 phan	77,800	80,330
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi	65,300	66,500
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.3 chi, 0.5 chi	65,300	66,600
99.99% Jewelry	65,200	66,100
99% Jewelry	63,946	65,446
Jewelry 68%	43,102	45,102
Jewelry 41.7%	25,716	27,716

Domestic gold prices have just gone through a volatile week, with "shocking increases" and then "rapid declines".

However, the main point of the domestic market was that at the end of last week's session, both SJC gold bars and gold rings and jewelry prices all stood firmly at their highest levels in history.

The price of SJC gold bars is currently approaching the threshold of 80 million VND/tael. But in the previous session, the price reached a record of 81 million VND/tael, "breaking" the old peak of 80 million VND recorded on December 26, 2023.

The closing price of SJC gold bars for the week (March 1) at Saigon Jewelry Company was 77.75 - 79.75 million VND/tael (buy - sell). The difference between buying and selling is 2 million VND.

Currently, if converted according to the USD exchange rate at commercial banks (excluding taxes and fees), the difference between domestic and world gold prices is about 17.5 million VND/tael.

Thus, after less than two weeks since the God of Wealth's day, the price of SJC gold bars has increased sharply by 3.5 million VND per tael, rising from the price of 77.5 million VND. Not only gold bars, the price of gold rings has also continuously reached new peaks. Up to now, the price of gold rings and jewelry gold has been listed by Saigon Jewelry Company at 65.3-66.5 million VND/tael, an increase of about 900,000 VND compared to the end of the previous day.

At Bao Tin Minh Chau Company, the price of Thang Long Dragon Gold ring gold is currently listed at 66.78 - 67.98 million VND/tael for buying and selling. The price of 9999 jewelry gold of Thang Long Dragon Gold brand is traded at 66.30 - 67.60 million VND/tael. The difference between buying and selling prices fluctuates around 1.3 million VND/tael.

World gold prices closed last weekend's trading session (March 1) at a record high.

According to the World & Vietnam Newspaper at the end of the trading session on March 1 , the world gold price was listed at a very high level of 2,082.30 - 2,083.30 USD/ounce, up 38.9 USD/ounce compared to the previous trading session. This is the highest level in two months with the driving force coming from the falling USD.

Thus, at the end of the week, the price of gold for April delivery increased by 41 USD, and for the whole week, the price of gold increased sharply by 2.3%. Currently, the weakening of US economic data has contributed to the decline of the USD and government bond yields, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold.

The US dollar ended the week weaker, with the USDX index falling sharply to 103.88. The yield on the 10-year US government bond fell from 4.644% in the previous session to 4.2%.

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Gold price today March 4, 2024: Domestic gold price 'overthrew' the old peak, world gold found new momentum, continuing to break out this week? (Source: CNBC)

Summary of SJC gold bar prices traded at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last week, March 1, 2024:

Doji Group currently lists the price of SJC gold bars at: 77.75 - 79.75 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed the price of SJC gold bars at: 77.90 - 79.75 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed gold bar price at: 77.60 - 79.50 million VND/tael.

SJC gold bar price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 78.10 - 79.75 million VND/tael.

Forecast of domestic gold price and world gold price?

Domestically , forecasting the price of SJC gold bars, experts give two scenarios, in which intervention from the management agency is quite important.

Firstly, if the State Bank has not yet had a policy to intervene in the gold market, gold prices are forecast to have room to increase due to expectations of a weakening USD when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates.

Second, if the State Bank decides to increase the supply of gold bars, the price will reverse and decrease depending on the amount supplied to the market. Or, if the monopoly of SJC gold bars is stopped, the price of this type of gold will also decrease sharply, but this is a difficult problem with the policy of preventing the goldization of the economy as well as the priority of controlling and stabilizing the exchange rate.

While the world gold market is finding new momentum, domestic gold prices may continue to increase this week because up to now, domestic gold prices have often moved in the same direction as world gold prices. However, when looking at the developments of the gold market last week, it is not impossible that domestic gold prices will enter a correction period after a series of strong increases in recent days.

Regarding the world market, market analyst Frank Watson at Kinesis Money Company said that signs of a weaker-than-expected economy will support gold because they put more pressure on central banks to cut interest rates.

Before the market turned its attention to US inflation data, world gold had three rather quiet trading sessions earlier this week. Recent comments from Fed officials showed that the US central bank will not conduct any interest rate cuts before June 2024. A higher interest rate environment usually reduces the attractiveness of gold. Then, world gold prices found upward momentum in the session on February 29 when US government bond yields fell.

Disappointing US economic data has put pressure on the USD and created an opportunity for gold to quickly rise. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, gold has successfully broken through the resistance level of $2,050/ounce, the next major resistance level for investors to watch is $2,088/ounce.

However, not all analysts are optimistic that gold will continue its breakout momentum next week, even as the precious metal ends the week with significant momentum.

In a recent note, MKS PAMP metals strategist Nicky Shiels said the latest inflation data was not telling. She said there was not enough data to declare the end of disinflation and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates.

According to this expert, the technical rally may last but it is not a catalyst to attract the interest of new investors.

The gold market typically sees a sell-off whenever the precious metal tests new resistance levels, and when prices test deep support levels, investors return to the market and initiate new buying orders once again. This has kept gold prices in a wide range, mostly above $2,000 an ounce, said market analysts at CPM Group.

According to analysts, the market seems to be looking for reasons to buy gold and take profits as technical resistance levels are tested. Gold has risen sharply and is testing the $2,100/ounce level after breaking above $2,050/ounce and a profit-taking period is likely to take place in the coming time. Profit-taking could push gold back to $2,075/ounce, CPM Group forecasts.

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