Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan: The 2025 Population Law will decide the future of the country in the next 50 and 100 years.

Delegate Nguyen Thien Nhan (Ho Chi Minh City Delegation) said that the 2025 Population Law will decide the future of the country in the next 50 and 100 years.

Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan speaks (Photo: Quang Vinh)

On November 10, the National Assembly discussed in the hall: the Population Law Project; the Disease Prevention Law Project.   Professor, delegate Nguyen Thien Nhan ( Ho Chi Minh City Delegation) gave   2 comments.   Accordingly, the first conclusion is from the reality and lessons of Japan's 50 years of development.   in the phase   1975-2025, the biggest challenge to Vietnam's development in the period 2026-2045 and in the 21st century is that the labor force will decrease after 2035 due to the birth rate being below the replacement level for 80 years.  

Grandfather   Analysis:   50 years of Japan's development from   year   1975-2025 has 2 opposite periods, 20 years 1975-1995 Japan achieved 4 achievements and witnessed 1 decline .   The four achievements are: GDP growth averaged more than 12%/year, GDP per capita increased averagely 11.8%/year, population increased 12.5% ​​and labor increased 14.9%. One decline was the birth rate decreased from 1.9 to 1.42. In the 30 years from 1975 to 2025, Japan witnessed five declines: GDP decreased 27%, GDP/person decreased 26%, labor decreased 16% and population decreased 3%, birth rate decreased from 1.42 to 1.15, the lowest in history. In 1999, Japan predicted that the population in 2100 would be about 60 million people, a decrease of 53%; in 2200 it would be 10 million people, a decrease of 92% and in 2300 it would be 3 million people, a decrease of 98%; in 3000 it would be 500 people. In 2006, Japan predicted that by the year 3000 there would be 62 people left.

According to   Mr. Nhan in   20 years ,   from   year   1975-1995, Japan had 4 achievements, 4 growths but only 1 limitation, one decrease was the decrease in birth rate, but this single decrease 30 years later pulled back the 4 growth achievements of the previous 20 years and created 5 decreases: GDP decrease, GDP per capita, labor decrease, population and birth rate decrease. If the decline below the replacement level is not restored to the replacement level, after 300 years ,   The country of 128 million people will lose 98% of its population, leaving just 3 million people. The only direct cause of this process is that fertility has fallen below replacement level for 50 years from 1974 to 2024 and will continue to fall until the end of the century.  

Vietnam's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level since   2022. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, USA, has forecasted the fertility rate of 200 countries and territories around the world from 2022 to 2100, in which Vietnam's fertility rate in 2050 is forecast to be 1.63 and 2100 to be 1.38. That is, Vietnam's 21st century will be the century in which the fertility rate will fall below the replacement level for nearly 80 years, longer than Japan's 50 years. Thus, basically, if there is no breakthrough in human policy, we will follow Japan's path, but slower because Vietnam's fertility rate below replacement is 50 years behind Japan's.  

However, according to   Mr. Nhan,   20 years   from year   Vietnam's 2025-2045 has a disadvantage compared to Japan. In the period 1975-1995, Japan's labor force increased by 14.9%, meaning that economic growth exceeded 20 years based on productivity growth and labor force growth. In Vietnam's 20 years from 2025 to 2045, it is predicted that labor will only increase for 10 years until 2035, then decrease. Thus, in the 10 years from 2025 to 2035, Vietnam's economic growth has two driving forces: increased productivity and increased labor. After the next 10 years, there will only be one driving force of increased productivity, no more driving force of increased labor, even decreased labor will put pressure on economic growth. The abundant increase in labor force during the 50 years from 1975 to 2025 is a great competitive advantage and development of Vietnam, but after 2035 the decrease in labor force will lead to labor shortage, hindering economic growth for the next 65 years. This is the biggest challenge to Vietnam's socio-economic development in the 21st century.  

“ If there is no breakthrough in Vietnam's human resources policy, which begins with this Population Law , and the predicted decrease in birth rate, it is predicted that Vietnam's population will decrease from 110 million people in 2050 to 88 million in 2050.   46 million in 2100   year 2200, 23 million   enter   year 2300 ,   and no more than 200,000 people   enter   The Japanese forecast is that there will be 62 people left by the year 3000, and South Korea will have no one left by the year 2750 ,” said Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan.

Second comment,   according to Mr. Nhan,   The proposed solutions in the draft Population Law 2025 are not enough to ensure a stable replacement level of fertility in Vietnam. As Resolution 21 of 2017 of the Central Committee on population work in the new situation has required that the fertility rate will continue to decrease. There are 11 direct causes and 5 root causes of the Japanese phenomenon as well as the fact that all 40 high-income countries in the world, with a population of over 1 million people, have experienced 40 years of low fertility and the current average fertility rate is 1.45. There are 2 most important causes, governments, business owners   Enterprises do not consider maintaining replacement fertility as a particularly important premise for the country and enterprises to develop sustainably, but consider high economic growth and maximum profits of enterprises as the most important.

Second, a simple truth that governments and unions have not spoken about is that wage policy must change. The minimum wage must be enough to support workers and to provide a child with a proper education until the age of 18, so that one child can be born, or two parents working together can raise two children. If this requirement is not met, the country's birth rate will never reach and maintain a stable replacement level. In Japan, the average minimum wage in Tokyo is 168,000 yen, equivalent to $1,120 a month .   This salary only ensures the life of the worker, that is, the daily expenditure for a worker is 37.3 USD. To raise a child from birth to 18 years old, Japan needs to spend 21.7 million yen, 1.2 million yen a year, 100,000 yen a month, equivalent to 700 USD/month, the daily cost is 23.3 USD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Government supports a child on average no more than 5 USD/day, only 22% of the child-rearing needs. Obviously, many Japanese women cannot give birth to another child just because of the 5 USD/day support, while their salary is only equal to the minimum wage or not higher than 50% of the minimum wage.  

In the policy impact assessment report of the draft law, the Ministry of Health proposed four measures to firmly maintain the replacement fertility level .   The four measures include: the mother gets an additional month of maternity leave and receives 62 million VND. The father gets 5 more days off and receives 695,000 VND. Giving birth to a second child before the age of 35 gets 2 million VND. Giving birth in areas with low birth rates gets 2 million VND in support and ethnic minority women giving birth get 2 million VND in support. In total, a woman giving birth gets 9-13 million VND/time. With the four support regulations mentioned above, the Ministry of Health believes that this solution creates a synchronous legal corridor to firmly maintain the replacement birth rate.  

Song   Mr. Nhan assessed that this assessment has no practical basis. The current average regional minimum wage in the country is 4.17 million VND, enough to sustain the life of a worker. To raise a child, a worker needs at least 4.17 million VND/month. 1 year needs 50 million, 3 years needs 150 million and 18 years needs 900 million. The one-time support level when giving birth as proposed by the Ministry of Health, 9.3 million is only 1-1.5% of the cost of raising a child. The Japanese government has supported 22% of the cost of raising a child but they have failed, if we support 1-1.5% and consider it successful, maintaining a stable birth rate like that is far from reality.  

Viet Thang - Trung Hieu

Source: https://daidoanket.vn/giao-su-nguyen-thien-nhan-luat-dan-so-2025-se-quyet-dinh-tuong-lai-cua-dat-nuoc-50-nam-va-100-nam-toi.html