Two forks in the road before a new horizon

The traditional US-UK relationship may be about to change, as the upcoming election opens up two different scenarios for this close relationship.

The traditional US-UK relationship may change after the upcoming presidential election. (Source: Getty Images)

That is the assessment in the latest report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - an independent policy research institute based in Washington - on the future of the two close allies, the US and the UK, after the race for the seat of power on November 5.

Test of transatlantic friendship

According to CSIS, the US-UK relationship has always been strong and solid regardless of who occupies the White House or 10 Downing Street. The UK is both a leading power with strategic vision and America's closest ally. Establishing a common agenda with London should be a priority in the first 100 days of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

The outcome of the US election could have a significant impact on the US-UK special relationship. London is not only a close ally of Washington, but also a member of the UN Security Council and the G7, holds nuclear weapons, has a powerful military , advanced internet systems and science.

He is a key member of the AUKUS initiative. (Source: APA)

According to CSIS research, since 2014, the UK has trained thousands of soldiers for Ukraine. In particular, since Russia launched its special military campaign, the UK has always been the European leader in aid to Ukraine, including providing main battle tanks and long-range missiles to Kiev. In addition, London also coordinated with the US to respond to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, participated in the AUKUS initiative, provided nuclear submarines to Australia and developed many advanced technologies.

The CSIS report points out that the traditional US-UK relationship remains strong regardless of who is in power, as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair maintained good relations with both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. However, the outcome of the upcoming election could open up two very different directions for this close relationship.

If former President Donald Trump wins, the US and UK will have leaders from opposite political poles. This would result in a very different situation from Trump’s first term, when the UK had conservative leaders who supported Brexit, something the former US President strongly endorsed. In addition, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his populist political style have helped London maintain closer ties with Washington than many of its European allies.

CSIS also affirmed that under the leadership of new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Britain will face many pressures from within and outside the country. On the one hand, London's foreign policy must always maintain a special relationship with the US. New British Foreign Secretary David Lammy affirmed that London "cannot forget that the US is always the most important ally, no matter who is in power in the White House". However, Mr. Trump is still not widely popular in the UK, especially among Labour supporters.

Britain is facing a lot of pressure from home and abroad under Prime Minister Keir Starmer. (Source: Reuters)

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the special relationship will have a chance to be re-established. Post-Brexit, Washington no longer values ​​the US-UK relationship as highly, especially as London’s influence in Europe wanes. But with Starmer and Harris sharing the same political background, the two countries may have a chance to restore the role and closeness of this relationship.

Britain's foreign policy under Labour, such as Britain Reconnected and Progressive Realism , seems to fit in with the Harris administration. Labour is also working to restore relations with the European Union (EU), which Harris strongly supports.

Reconstruction or rupture?

According to CSIS, the new occupant of the White House, regardless of party, should support a stronger relationship between the UK and Europe. This move would further strengthen US foreign policy in competing with China, as well as promote a unified European stance on Beijing.

A UK-EU security pact would also deepen security and defence industry cooperation, creating a “European pillar” within NATO to counter Russia and reduce Europe’s military dependence on the US. In addition, Washington has lost its traditional bridge to Europe after Brexit, so Prime Minister Starmer’s restoration of good relations with Europe from outside the EU would be an advantage for both presidential candidates.

White House occupants, regardless of party, have generally supported the relationship between Britain and Europe. (Source: AP)

In addition, the UK made little progress in negotiating a new free trade agreement during former President Donald Trump’s first term, and the current President Joe Biden’s administration has made no effort to negotiate a new trade agreement, with both the government and Congress skeptical of trade agreements with London.

It is unclear whether the Harris administration will take a similar approach, but a new Labour government could be the ideal partner to negotiate a new trade deal focused on the green economy. If the US cannot reach a trade deal with the UK, Washington will find it difficult to reach a deal with any other country.

In addition, in the field of climate and green energy, the agendas of the two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have significant differences. CSIS believes that Ms. Harris should at least “recruit” the UK as a key ally in the green transition, because London’s Clean Energy Alliance would provide Washington with new forms to pursue advanced climate diplomacy.

The US-UK relationship has long been a strong pillar in the foreign policies of both countries. (Source: ABC)

The US-UK relationship may be strong enough to weather any storm. However, a Harris administration could usher in much smoother journeys for this special relationship than the Trump administration.

Ultimately, no matter who occupies the White House, the US-UK relationship will remain a strong pillar of both countries’ foreign policy. But this time, the two leaders’ different political orientations could lead to separate paths. The Harris administration is expected to rebuild closer ties, not just with London but with the rest of Europe, thereby forging a stronger Western alliance in the face of global challenges, especially from China and Russia.

On the contrary, a second term under Mr. Trump could set the relationship between Washington and London on a new path, focusing on bilateral issues rather than multilateral relations. Either way, these two close allies will need flexibility and creativity to adjust and promote the strength of their traditional relationship, continuing to become mutually trustworthy strategic partners in the context of an ever-changing world.

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