Research on building a set of models and technological processes to forecast coastal flooding caused by storm surges and waves

On November 29, 2025, the Ministry of Science and Technology held a meeting of the Council for evaluation and acceptance of the national science and technology task: "Research on building a set of models and technological processes to forecast coastal flooding due to storm surges and waves", code DTĐL.CN-46/22

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy, on behalf of the research team, presented a summary of the research content and results of the task.

Coastal flooding is a type of natural disaster that often occurs during storms and causes significant damage to people, property and the environment in coastal areas.

Around the world , history has recorded many storms that flooded and devastated coastal areas such as Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Helene (September 2024) in the US, Hurricane Sidr (2007), Hurricane Haiyan in the Philippines and Hurricane Amphan (2020) in India and Bangladesh.

In Vietnam, many coastal floods caused by storm surges have been witnessed, such as storms Damrey (2005), Xangsane (2006), Doksuri (2017), especially in 2025, there were 02 storms causing large surges that flooded many areas of Kajiki (August 2025) and Bualoi (September 2025).

In recent years, coastal flooding research has made great progress thanks to the increasing understanding of the causes and mechanisms of flooding as well as advances in theory and computational capacity. However, the results of research on coastal flooding due to storm surges still have limitations for practical application. Specific causes include: Incomplete understanding of the mechanisms and interactions between factors causing storm surges and coastal flooding; many processes are assumed to be simplified; computational capacity does not allow for detailed spatial simulations.

On that basis, the Ministry of Science and Technology has ordered the task of "Researching and building a set of models and technological processes to forecast coastal flooding caused by storm surges and waves" under the Program for basic science development in the field of marine science (Program 562). Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy is the head; the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is the implementing agency with 3 main objectives:

Built an integrated model to forecast coastal flooding due to storm surges and waves;

Test application for 02 coastal areas (with and without dikes);

Proposed technological process and plan to forecast coastal flooding due to storm surge and waves.

After 3 years of implementation, the Mission has achieved the following remarkable results:

Assess the impact of tidal, wave and storm surge interactions on surge height and wave height in the Northern coastal region;

Assess the impact of tides, waves, river flows and sea dykes on the combined water level and coastal flooding in Thanh Hoa province;

Identifying the risk of coastal flooding in Thanh Hoa due to storm surges in the context of climate change;

A set of coastal flood risk maps for Thanh Hoa has been built;

The process, forecasting plan and flood forecasting test for Thanh Hoa in the 2025 storm season have been built.

International publication: 02 scientific works published in international journals in the SCI/SCIE/SCOPUS category;

Published 07 works at international conferences or domestic specialized journals.

Participated in supporting the training of 02 PhDs and training of 01 Master; of which 01 PhD successfully defended his thesis at the basic level and 01 Master graduated.

National Acceptance Assessment Council.

The members of the Acceptance Council highly appreciated the contributions of the Chairman and the Presiding Agency; the summary report and the summary report had a reasonable structure, in accordance with the requirements of a scientific report; the quantity, volume, progress and quality of the products all met the requirements of the task.

With the results achieved, the Council unanimously accepted the project as "Passed". At the same time, the research team was required to absorb the content and make appropriate edits, complete the dossier and submit it to the Ministry of Science and Technology for a decision to recognize the results of the task.

Department of Social Sciences, Humanities and Natural Sciences

Source: https://mst.gov.vn/nghien-cuu-xay-dung-bo-mo-hinh-va-quy-trinh-cong-nghe-du-bao-ngap-lut-vung-ven-bien-do-nuoc-dang-va-song-trong-bao-197251201203909635.htm