Revealing the huge costs the EU must bear when opening the door for Ukraine to join

Enlargement has become one of the most pressing topics for the European Union (EU), with a formal announcement on opening accession talks with Ukraine expected in December.

The huge cost of the expansion was revealed ahead of a meeting of 51 European leaders in the European Political Community (EPC) on 6 October in Granada, Spain. This will be the third EPC meeting, following a summit in Moldova in June this year and a summit in the Czech Republic last October.

According to an internal European Council memo seen by the media, expanding the EU to include nine new countries, including Ukraine, would cost existing member states more than €256 billion.

The document, first reported by the Financial Times on October 4, is the first official look at what future enlargement will mean for the EU budget.

The note cites opportunities, such as a larger internal market and greater political influence on the global stage. But it also warns of “significant challenges” on issues ranging from the budget, to seats in the European Parliament, the future of the common agricultural policy, and the bloc’s decision-making capacity.

Future enlargement would mean that all current EU members “would have to contribute more and receive less” from the EU budget. That means many countries that currently enjoy net financial benefits would become net contributors.

World - Revealing the huge costs the EU had to bear when opening the door for Ukraine to join — A residential area in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, damaged by missile strikes, August 8, 2023. According to World Bank estimates, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine will be around 400 billion euros. Photo: El Pais

The note estimates that the EU budget would increase by 21% to €1.47 trillion if Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans all joined. It would involve a significant increase in contributions from Germany, France and the Netherlands, with transition periods required to scale up funding.

According to the Financial Times, Ukraine – the largest of the nine countries accepted as potential candidates – would benefit from 186 billion euros over the EU’s seven-year budget cycle if Kiev becomes a member. This amount is on top of the World Bank’s estimate of the cost of rebuilding Ukraine, which is estimated at around 400 billion euros.

The note does not go so far as to calculate the costs for individual European countries, but focuses on the expected impact on EU agricultural policy and the EU cohesion fund. When it comes to EU agricultural subsidies, Ukraine will be the main beneficiary, receiving €96.5 billion over seven years.

As for cohesion funding – which finances infrastructure in less developed member states – after the EU enlargement, countries such as the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta will no longer be eligible for this fund.

However, all these calculations are only extrapolations based on current budget rules, but there is no denying that changes to the EU budget “are certainly necessary and far-reaching” .

Minh Duc (According to Politico EU, The Guardian)

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