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Liverpool have a big advantage to win the Premier League. |
Liverpool fans will never forget the moment Steven Gerrard slipped in May 2014. They will always remember the two times their beloved team finished just one point behind Manchester City in the Premier League title race. In a league as crazy and competitive as the Premier League, anything can happen.
ESPN 's analysis shows that Liverpool have a 99.71% chance of winning the 2024/25 Premier League. Out of 10,000 possible scenarios between now and the end of the season, simulated by supercomputers, Liverpool will win the Premier League in 9,971 cases. That means there are only 29 cases where "The Kop" will lose the championship, corresponding to a 0.29% chance.
In those 29 simulations, the distribution of points between the top two teams was as follows: 8 times Arsenal finished the season with 81 points, Liverpool with 80 points. 7 times Arsenal and Liverpool both finished the season with 79 points (Arsenal won on goal difference). 6 times Arsenal and Liverpool both finished the season with 81 points (Arsenal won on goal difference).
There were 4 occasions when Arsenal finished the season with 81 points, Liverpool had 78. The case of Arsenal having 81 points, Liverpool having 79 appeared 3 times.
The scenario of Arsenal and Liverpool both ending the season with 77 points (Arsenal won the championship thanks to goal difference) appeared once.
Since the most common of the six scoring scenarios is Arsenal finishing with 81 points and Liverpool with 80 points, let's analyze a specific simulation for that scenario to happen.
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Arsenal have very little chance of winning the English championship this season. |
Liverpool currently have 76 points after 32 rounds (+43 goal difference), while Arsenal have 63 points (+30 goal difference), so they can only earn 4 more points in the last 6 rounds. The most likely scenario is that Liverpool wins against Leicester City in round 33, then draws with Tottenham in round 34.
In the last 4 rounds, "The Kop" lost to Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Crystal Palace. These are all tough opponents for coach Slot and his students.
As for Arsenal, they must also win all six of their last six matches against Ipswich Town, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Newcastle, Southampton, and accumulate enough goal difference to surpass "The Kop" (a difference of up to 13 goals).
This is obviously very unlikely. Liverpool have never lost four consecutive Premier League games in the 21st century. Meanwhile, Arsenal have only won six consecutive Premier League games three times in the last half-decade. The odds of both happening at the same time are extremely low.
Source: https://znews.vn/kich-ban-dien-ro-giup-arsenal-vo-dich-premier-league-post1547101.html
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