China's exports forecast to hit record high

Economists forecast China's exports to hit a record high in 2024 as customers rush to place orders.

The threat of new tariffs is prompting U.S. companies to ramp up imports from China, where economists predict China’s exports will hit an all-time high this year.

China’s exports are expected to grow 7% in the final three months of the year from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg, up from 5% in October, before the US election, and will push total exports this year to more than $3.5 trillion, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.

During his campaign, Donald Trump proposed raising tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 60%, a level economists said would have a significant impact on trade between the world’s two largest economies. During his first term, Donald Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on more than $300 billion of Chinese goods – prompting retaliation from Beijing – and President Joe Biden has largely kept those tariffs in place.

The prospect of a widening trade war after Donald Trump returns to the White House is raising expectations of more stimulus next year as China prepares for a new era of protectionism. In contrast to booming exports, import growth has flatlined as the domestic economy struggles to recover, sparking a global backlash from countries concerned about a flood of cheap Chinese goods.

China's gross domestic product is expected to grow 4.9% in the fourth quarter, up from a forecast of 4.8% last month.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect China to free up money for banks to lend by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25 percentage point in the fourth quarter, while keeping key policy rates, such as the seven-day reverse repo rate, unchanged until next year. Those predictions are similar to those in the October survey.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC, the central bank) last cut the RRR in September, shortly after Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a series of drastic measures to stem China’s economic slowdown. Last month, Pan reiterated that the PBoC could cut the rate by another 0.25-0.5 percentage points by the end of the year depending on market liquidity conditions.

According to PV/VTV

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/kim-ngach-xuat-khau-cua-trung-quoc-du-bao-dat-ky-luc/20241125073815354