The economy recovered positively, exceeding the growth scenario, but we cannot be subjective.

Although the economy is still recovering positively, with GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 estimated at 6.93%; in the first 6 months estimated at 6.42%, exceeding forecasts and even the proposed economic growth scenario, the difficulties ahead are still very great.

This requires continuing to resolutely implement the proposed solutions to resolve challenges and bring the economy to its growth target of 6.5% this year.

There are many macroeconomic indicators showing that the economy is under a lot of pressure, both in terms of growth and inflation, of which inflation is perhaps the most obvious. On average, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.08% over the same period last year in the first 6 months, higher than the lower limit of the annual target of 4-4.5%. More importantly, the CPI is showing an upward trend every month.

The problem is that inflation may continue to increase due to fluctuations in supply, fluctuations in prices on the world market, demand for electricity and services such as transportation and tourism during the peak summer season, wages that will increase from July 1, and the expected adjustment of some items whose prices are controlled by the State, such as electricity prices, health care services,education , etc.

This shows that the pressure on management to stabilize the macro economy in the coming months is very high. Special attention and close monitoring are needed to have solutions to manage prices strictly, cautiously, appropriately and promptly.

The pressure to manage to achieve growth targets is the same, although many forecasts and expectations suggest that the economy will continue its positive recovery trend, with GDP growth being higher in the second half of the year.

Many figures can be cited, of which industrial production is one example.

Although the added value of the entire industrial sector in the first 6 months of 2024 increased by 7.54% over the same period last year and although the processing and manufacturing industry continued to affirm its position as the growth driver of the entire economy, while 56 localities had an increase in the Industrial Production Index, 7 localities still had a decrease.

Even domestic consumption has not met expectations. The evidence is that in 6 months, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (after excluding price factors) increased by only 5.7%, significantly lower than expected.

And although trade in goods is growing positively, the difficulties are not likely to pass soon, the recovery momentum of trade in goods is not strong. The reason is that the global economy is still difficult, although the economies of the US, South Korea, and even Europe and China are all showing signs of improvement; many uncertain factors still exist, especially when global geopolitical fluctuations are still tense.

Meanwhile, domestically, public investment disbursement tends to stagnate, not increasing sharply, even though the total public investment resources this year are lower than last year. In particular, there are still some ministries and sectors that disburse 0%, or even have not allocated planned capital...

In that context, it is difficult to expect positive growth in the business sector. In the past 6 months, although 119,600 businesses were newly established and returned to operation, up 5.3% over the same period, 110,300 businesses left the market, up 18.4%. In addition, the average registered capital of newly established businesses also tended to decrease.

Obviously, the challenges and difficulties ahead are not small. We cannot be too happy with the growth rate of 6.93% in the second quarter or 6.42% in the first 6 months. Moreover, what worries Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung is how to make the economy recover and grow faster to keep up with the world and the region.

Perhaps, with the positive figures of the first 6 months, there is no need to worry too much about whether this year's economic growth target will be achieved or not. However, the current context requires drastic and effective implementation of solutions to remove difficulties for production and business, unblock credit flows, accelerate public investment disbursement, etc. to promote economic growth. Along with that, it is necessary to promote investment attraction and put into operation projects in emerging industrial sectors. In addition, focusing on implementing the target of controlling inflation is also something that needs to be taken into account.

The first half of the year was positive, the second half needs more effort so that the economy can accelerate and reach the finish line.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/kinh-te-phuc-hoi-tich-cuc-vuot-kich-ban-tang-truong-nhung-khong-the-chu-quan-d218909.html