Increase beyond forecast, waiting to surpass Singapore According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam's GDP in 2024 officially increased by 7.09% compared to the previous year, exceeding the target of 6-6.5% set by the National Assembly, thereby bringing the GDP scale at current prices in 2024 to an estimated over 11.5 million billion VND, equivalent to 476.3 billion USD. This figure far exceeds the estimated 450 billion USD of the independent Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis CEBR (UK) released in the last week of 2024. CEBR believes that the GDP scale in 2024 will reach 450 billion USD, up one place compared to the previous year to 34th in the world and will surpass Singapore in 2029. In 2029, Vietnam's GDP is forecast to reach 676 billion USD, while Singapore is 656 billion USD.
With the actual GDP scale in 2024 announced by the Vietnamese Government on January 6 being more than 26 billion USD higher than CEBR's estimate, along with the expectation that economic growth in 2025 will break out, reaching 8% or even "double digits", Vietnam's GDP is likely to surpass Singapore's sooner than the forecast in 2029 given by the British organization. In the report, CEBR said that Vietnam's economy will achieve an expected average growth rate of 5.8%/year in the next 5 years. This figure is much lower than the target and expectations of the Vietnamese Government. According to the GSO representative, the strong GDP growth rate in 2024 is an important premise for 2025 to accelerate and reach the finish line. Vietnam's economy continues its clear recovery trend, with growth gradually improving month by month, quarter by quarter... When will people's income be in the upper middle income group in the world? Also according to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's GDP per capita in 2024 is estimated to reach 114 million VND/person, equivalent to 4,700 USD, an increase of 377 USD compared to 2023. This is an impressive figure compared to 2023 and can help Vietnamese people soon enter the upper middle income group in the world. According to the World Bank (WB), with the latest classification applied for 2023-2024, Vietnam has not yet entered the group of countries with upper-middle income. Currently, the WB classifies people's income in the world based on average gross national income (GNI) per capita. According to the new classification, from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the average income per capita (GNI) of countries will be in the upper-middle-income group if it is around 4,516-14,005 USD/person. There is currently no data on Vietnam's average GNI in 2024, so it is not known whether it has entered the upper-middle-income group or not. In 2023, according to the WB, Vietnam's average GNI is 4,180 USD/person. Previously, in 2022 it was 4,020 USD and in 2021 it was 3,590. Assuming the GNI growth rate also reaches 7%, the average GNI will increase by 292 USD to 4,472 USD/person. And so, Vietnam is not in the upper-middle-income group. Vietnam is likely to enter the upper middle-income group by 2025.
According to CEBR's calculations released at the end of 2024, Vietnam's GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2024 will reach 16,193 USD and will be classified as a lower middle-income country. In terms of GDP/capita, according to CEBR, Vietnam is still ranked quite low compared to the region. Vietnam's GDP per capita in 2023 will rank 6th in Southeast Asia, after Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. In 2024, the ranking will not change. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2026, Vietnam will rise to 4th place in the ASEAN-6 group in terms of GDP per capita, reaching 6,140 USD/person, behind Singapore (97,316 USD/person), Malaysia (17,121 USD/person), Thailand (9,480 USD/person) and surpassing Indonesia (6,125 USD/person), Philippines (4,801 USD/person). Many people expect GDP to grow rapidly in the coming years thanks to the wave of investment in the technology sector. Vietnamese people's income will also increase rapidly and will soon enter the upper middle-income group.

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