Will interest rates enter a new trend?

Since the beginning of July, some banks have started to increase deposit interest rates, while most have kept the old level or adjusted it slightly downward. This development puts...

Since early July, some banks have started to increase deposit interest rates, while most have kept the old level or slightly adjusted it down. This development raises the question of whether the market is entering a new interest rate trend for both deposits and loans in the near future.

Mixed developments in the interest rate market

Since the beginning of July 2025, the interest rate market has witnessed fluctuations in both directions. According to the Vietnam Banking Association, a number of commercial banks have adjusted their deposit interest rates for terms of 1-36 months up by 0.1-0.2% per year. However, according to the latest update from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), during the same period, a number of banks continued to slightly reduce deposit interest rates.

Specifically, information from the State Bank of Vietnam on July 22 shows that since the beginning of the year, deposit interest rates have generally been stable, but some banks have taken action to lower interest rates.

From the beginning of July, BacABank reduced 0.1 percentage points for all terms and deposit forms; VIB reduced 0.1%/year for 36-month term at the counter with deposits from 1 to under 5 billion VND; BaoViet Bank reduced 0.15 - 0.2%/year for terms from 6 to 13 months.

Previously, LPBank also adjusted down 0.2%/year for online deposits with terms from 18 to 60 months, while NCB reduced 0.1%/year depending on the term.

On the other hand, market research shows that VCBNeo, a digital bank, has increased its interest rates by 0.2% per year for terms from 1 to 7 months. VPBank has increased its interest rates by 0.1% per year for terms from 1 to 36 months, while Techcombank has adjusted its interest rates by 0.1 - 0.2% per year for similar terms.

Some banks have also launched promotional programs to give additional interest rates, bringing the highest mobilization rate close to the 6%/year mark. Currently, the average interest rate for 12-month terms fluctuates from 4.6 - 6%/year. In particular, some banks list interest rates up to 9.65%/year, but only apply to deposits worth thousands of billions of VND.

According to the macro update report of VNDirect Securities Company, as of July 11, 2025, the average 12-month deposit interest rate of commercial banks increased slightly to 4.78%/year - an increase of 0.01 percentage point compared to the end of June but still 0.08 percentage point lower than the beginning of the year.

VNDirect commented that the upward trend in interest rates at some private banks showed that liquidity pressure increased at the end of June, when credit grew strongly (reaching 9.9% compared to the beginning of the year, the highest since 2022). Economic recovery and the return of large orders made businesses need capital, leading to increased demand for loans, forcing banks to raise deposit interest rates to ensure medium and long-term capital sources.

It is forecasted that in the second half of 2025, credit will continue to accelerate in line with economic recovery. Driving factors include: increased import turnover, a sign of export prospects; a thriving real estate market; and a strong recovery in domestic consumption. These factors will all contribute to boosting credit demand and putting pressure on interest rates.

Although deposit interest rates remain low compared to many years ago, savings are still attractive to people. According to the Vietnam Banking Association, residential deposits have increased continuously for 15 months and officially surpassed the 15 million billion VND mark in April 2025. Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a banking and finance expert, analyzed that in the context of other investment channels such as stocks, gold, real estate, and cryptocurrencies that have many potential risks, savings are still the priority choice thanks to their safety and stability.

With increasing pressure on capital mobilization, many experts believe that in the coming time, interest rates may continue to be adjusted upward at some banks to meet capital needs for production and business.

Since the beginning of July, some banks have started to increase deposit interest rates, while most have kept the old level or slightly adjusted it down.

Downtrend continues, growth support expected

Along with the downward trend of deposit interest rates, lending interest rates have also continued to decrease since the beginning of the year. According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the average lending interest rate is currently only about 6.23%/year, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. This move is expected to contribute positively to promoting business production activities of enterprises as well as supporting people to expand consumption and investment.

According to experts, the reason lending interest rates remain low is mainly due to the stable mobilization market. MB Securities Company (MBS) assessed that although deposit interest rates have shown signs of slowing down, they have not yet hit bottom, so there is still room for further reduction in the third quarter of this year.

However, in the fourth quarter, deposit interest rates may increase slightly as credit tends to accelerate at the end of the year. MBS forecasts that 12-month term interest rates at major commercial banks will fluctuate around 4.7% throughout 2025.

At the macro level, Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC) believes that the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to pursue a controlled loose monetary policy. In the coming time, the regulatory agency plans to continue to provide liquidity through the open market, while expanding the scale of refinancing loans to banks in the process of restructuring, especially weak banks that have been acquired at zero dong. It is not excluded that the credit ceiling will also be considered for removal.

In addition, the State Bank will promote credit orientation by encouraging credit institutions to implement preferential loan packages, focusing on priority areas in development policies.

At the online conference between the Government and localities on July 16 on the growth scenario for 2025, SBV Governor Nguyen Thi Hong affirmed that the SBV will continue to maintain low operating interest rates to create room for further reduction in lending rates. The goal is to remove difficulties for the business community and people, increasing access to capital at more reasonable costs.

Along with that, the State Bank also requires credit institutions to reduce operating costs, promote digital transformation, apply information technology and deploy other support solutions to create conditions for further reduction of lending interest rates in the coming time.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/lai-suat-se-buoc-vao-mot-xu-huong-moi-383392.html