Coffee prices fluctuate due to supply shortage concerns

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) report shows that in the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to the end of September 2023), global green coffee exports will be 123 million bags, down 5.6% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year.

It is worth noting that while overall green coffee exports have declined, global Robusta exports have increased, as many consumers around the world have switched from higher priced Arabica to cheaper Robusta, as shown by ICO figures.

In the 2022-2023 crop year, global Arabica coffee exports will reach only 67.05 million bags, down 10.1% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. In contrast, Robusta coffee exports will reach 43.76 million bags, up 2.6%.

11 months, Vietnam's coffee exports are still growing

Consumers have shifted strongly from Arabica to Robusta coffee, causing the price of Robusta coffee in the world to increase sharply, thereby greatly affecting the export price of coffee from Vietnam - the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee.

Due to the high export price of coffee, the domestic price of green coffee beans has also reached historical milestones, at times reaching 70,000 VND/kg, an unprecedented level. It can be said that the price of green coffee beans in 2023 was beyond the expectations of everyone in the coffee industry, from farmers to buyers and exporters. Therefore, when the price rose above 60,000 VND/kg, farmers almost did not enjoy this price because they had sold all their coffee when the price was just over 50,000 VND/kg - a level at which farmers saw good profits.

By the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year (starting from October 2023), the price of green coffee beans will remain high, above 60,000 VND/kg. Mr. Do Ha Nam , Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group, said that in all previous coffee crops, there has never been a crop year where the price of green coffee beans was so high at the beginning of the crop year.

According to the latest report of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), in November 2023, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee decreased after continuously increasing in previous months, reaching 2,990 USD/ton, down 17% compared to October 2023, but still up 26.2% compared to November 2022.

In the first 11 months of 2023, the average export price of coffee in our country reached 2,573 USD/ton, an increase of 12% over the same period last year.

In November 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports to markets such as Italy, the United States, Japan, Spain, Belgium, etc. decreased compared to the same period last year. On the contrary, Vietnam's coffee exports to some markets grew positively, including Germany, Russia, Algeria, South Korea, the Philippines, etc. In general, in the first 11 months of 2023, coffee exports to most traditional and potential markets decreased, except for Algeria and South Korea, etc.

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