Nvidia before G-hour: The $260 billion game that determines the AI ​​era

(Dan Tri) - Wall Street is holding its breath as Nvidia announces its second quarter results, with volatility potentially reaching $260 billion in a single day. This is not just a financial report, but also a test for the future of the AI ​​era.

Few companies in modern finance have the clout of Nvidia, whose stock moves have the potential to shake the S&P 500, where it makes up nearly 8% of the index.

So when the chip giant prepares to unveil its latest financial report, it is no longer a story about a single business but a signal, a barometer for the health of the entire technology industry and the psychology of global investors.

Nvidia has had an extraordinary two years, rising from a graphics chip maker to the most valuable company on the planet, with a market cap that has surpassed $4 trillion. Chips like the Blackwell B200 have become the indispensable backbone that powers the AI ​​superpowers of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. But all parties must come to an end.

This second-quarter report is expected to be the first chapter of a new era: an era of "excellent" growth, rather than "utopia."

The Financial Picture: When "Blitzscaling" Growth Begins to Slow

According to Bloomberg, Nvidia will report numbers that any company would dream of: revenue of $46.2 billion (up 53% year-over-year) and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01 (up 49%). The data center segment, the heart of the AI ​​revolution, is expected to contribute $41.2 billion.

These are certainly impressive results. But for Wall Street, context is more important than numbers. Between 2023 and 2024, Nvidia had five consecutive quarters of triple-digit revenue growth—a nearly unprecedented feat. Now, growth is down to double digits.

This slowdown, while inevitable, raises the core question that has haunted investors for months: How long can this miraculous run of success last?

Attention will be focused on the small but important details: the progress of the GB200 superchip shipments, the plans for the next generation of Blackwell Ultra chips, and most importantly, management's forecast for the next quarter. A forecast that is even slightly below expectations could wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization.

Despite the “policy shocks,” Nvidia’s stock is up 35% year-to-date and nearly 44% over the past 12 months. In July, the company became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion (Photo: Getty).

Geopolitical "Headache": The $8 Billion Chessboard in China

If slowing growth is a gray cloud, geopolitical tensions with China are a storm. This report will for the first time fully reflect the impact of the Trump administration's volatile "tariff war."

The chain of events surrounding Nvidia has been dramatic. In April, Washington unexpectedly banned the company from selling its H20 chip line exclusively to China. By July, the ban was lifted, and it seemed like the door had been opened. But just a month later, a new agreement forced Nvidia to give 15% of its H20 revenue to China to the US government .

Nvidia had predicted that the charge could knock as much as $8 billion off its second-quarter earnings. That would be a huge blow, a direct “tariff” on the company’s money-making machine. Analysts at KeyBanc warned that if Nvidia completely excluded direct revenue from China from its third-quarter forecast, the figure would likely be significantly lower than market expectations.

The game is further complicated by Beijing’s recent warnings to domestic companies about the security risks posed by Nvidia chips. While the US giant has denied the allegations, pressure is coming from both sides. In the meantime, Nvidia is reportedly developing a new chip for China based on the Blackwell architecture, but its launch will require a nod from Washington.

Clearly, Nvidia's business path in the billion-people market is becoming bumpier than ever.

Behind the Numbers: Fears of an “AI Bubble” and the Lessons of the “Nifty Fifty”

Despite the challenges, Nvidia’s stock is up 35% year to date. Wall Street’s optimism seems limitless. But this euphoria is raising a larger, systemic concern: Are we in an AI bubble?

Even one of the pioneers of this revolution, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, admits. “Are we at a stage where investors are getting too excited about AI? I think so,” he says.

Some more seasoned analysts have even compared the current mania to the collapse of the “Nifty Fifty” in the 1970s. This was a group of 50 leading American companies at the time (such as Xerox, IBM) that were considered “buy and hold forever” investments. They were priced at absurd levels until the bubble burst in the 1973-1974 crisis, causing the value of the group to plummet by more than 50%.

Arun Sai, senior strategist at Pictet Asset Management, offered a sharp warning, drawing on that historical lesson: "You can be a great company, but not necessarily a great stock if the price is wrong."

Five decades later, the same question is being asked of the “Magnificent Seven.” Are their trillion-dollar valuations overblown by the AI ​​wave?

The AI ​​Arms Race and the Big Question of Profit

The AI ​​craze has created what Arun Sai calls a “hyper-concentrated pocket of growth.” In a slowing US economy, AI has become a rare bright spot, a major driver of GDP growth. That has sparked a massive spending arms race. Amazon plans to spend $85 billion on AI next year, while Microsoft is banking on spending as much as $100 billion.

But sooner or later, this cash-burning race will have to face a harsh reality: profitability. A recent MIT survey poured cold water on the general excitement when it revealed that 95% of businesses surveyed have yet to see a return on their AI investments, despite the huge sums spent.

The pressure to prove effectiveness is growing, especially as upstarts like China’s DeepSeek challenge the market with cheaper but still powerful products. The AI ​​game is entering a phase where return on investment (ROI) will become the most important metric, not just the potential of the technology.

Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report is about more than just one company. It’s about the intersection of disruptive technology, power politics, and the immutable laws of financial markets. Nvidia is on a high, but it’s also walking a delicate line between booming demand and macro risks, between record valuations and fears of a down cycle.

The results, which will be announced soon, will be a key indicator. Not only will it determine the fortunes of millions of investors, but it could also be a prophecy about the direction of the AI ​​era: whether it will continue to be a sustainable revolution, or just a brilliant but short-lived gold rush.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/nvidia-truoc-gio-g-cuoc-choi-260-ty-usd-dinh-doat-thoi-dai-ai-20250827225450058.htm