"Hot" growth of real estate credit: Optimism in anxiety?

VTV.vn - Real estate credit increased sharply in the first 10 months of 2025, creating abundant capital flow but low liquidity, many experts warn about the sustainability of the market.

Although real estate credit is accelerating, the reality is not creating the expected movement.

Real estate credit increased sharply in the first 10 months of 2025, creating abundant capital but low liquidity. Many experts warn that this reality not only affects the economy but also raises many questions about the sustainability of the market.

Credit growth in anxiety

In the first 10 months of 2025, real estate credit has grown strongly, becoming one of the main driving factors in the development of the economy. According to Mr. Pham Chi Quang, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), credit in the entire banking system has achieved a growth rate of 13.4%, of which real estate credit accounts for a significant proportion. This reflects a very clear trend: real estate continues to be an attractive destination for credit flows. However, this increase is creating a serious consequence, which is an imbalance in the market.

Buying and selling, "surfing" without real value in terms of cash flow or rental income has pushed real estate values ​​too high, making liquidity poor.

Financial reports for the third quarter of 2025 from major banks show that although real estate credit is accelerating, the reality is not creating the expected movement. At VPBank , real estate business activities account for 22.97% of total outstanding loans, while at MB, this rate is 10.42%. This clearly shows that credit capital flows into real estate are dominating the overall economy. However, in some areas such as Ho Chi Minh City, although the market is bustling with the number of newly opened apartments, the number of transactions is not commensurate with the increase in supply.

Sharing at the 2026 Investment Forum recently held in Ho Chi Minh City, economic expert Dinh The Hien said that the main reason for this imbalance is that the real estate market has been in a state of "buy high, sell high" since the beginning of the year. If this trend continues, the market is at risk of a bubble. This is a warning that cannot be ignored when the real estate market is increasingly dependent on short-term speculation. Buying and selling, "surfing" without real value in terms of cash flow or rental income has pushed real estate values ​​too high, causing poor liquidity.

Despite the strong growth in real estate credit, the market has not been able to create a sustainable cycle as desired. According to Property Guru, real estate prices in major areas such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have increased sharply, with an impressive increase of 112% in Hanoi within 5 years. However, this price increase is not commensurate with people's income and the market's absorption capacity. Market liquidity has therefore also weakened, and this is one of the main reasons leading to "vacancy" in many real estate projects.

Warning that the market is out of balance

The situation of real estate speculation beyond the threshold is becoming a major threat to both the market and the economy. When housing prices are pushed too high, many people, especially the middle and low income class, cannot access housing. This not only reduces liquidity but also makes the economy unbalanced, when the abundant cash flow is not used for sustainable development purposes, but mainly serves speculative purposes.

Currently, the inventory of real estate businesses has exceeded 570,000 billion VND, showing the imbalance between project development and actual consumption capacity in the market.

Real estate, although attracting large capital flows from the banking system, has not created a clear transition between credit and actual transactions. Up to now, the inventory of listed enterprises has exceeded 570,000 billion VND, showing the imbalance between project development and actual consumption capacity in the market. This is the weakness of the current real estate market, when cash flow cannot be converted into liquidity.

One of the solutions proposed by experts is to control the flow of credit into real estate, especially loans for speculative purposes. Expert Dinh The Hien warned: "The 'buy high, sell high' mentality helps a group of investors benefit in the short term, but creates a cycle of overheating, which risks causing a market crash." This is the core problem of the unsustainability of the real estate market. Maintaining real estate prices that are too high without commensurate with actual income and profitability will only lead to instability and difficulty in sustainable development.

Another feasible solution proposed by Mr. Vu Thanh Le, a member of the Board of Directors of Phat Dat Company, is to apply tax tools such as taxing second homes, abandoned land and deducting interest on first-time home loans. This is a strategy that has been successfully applied in many countries when real estate credit is booming. Strictly controlling speculative cash flow will help stabilize the market and create real estate products that meet the real needs of the people.

Capital flows "strongly" into real estate

Index	Scale	Growth
Total outstanding real estate debt (August 31, 2025)	> 4 million billion VND	+19% year-on-year
Account for total outstanding debt of the economy	23.68%	(highest in recent history)
Real estate business loans	1.79 million billion VND	+24% (hottest)
Consumer/self-use loans	2.28 million billion VND	+12%

Source: State Bank

Experts also believe that, for the real estate market to develop sustainably; projects must be legally transparent, serve real housing needs and have a long-term vision. At this time, the real estate market will no longer be dominated by erratic cycles of increase and decrease but will develop stably, creating real value for the economy and the people.

Although the strong flow of credit into real estate can help economic growth in the short term, if not strictly controlled, it will lead to serious consequences in terms of liquidity and market sustainability. Management agencies need to take drastic measures to curb speculation, thereby promoting the substantial and sustainable development of the Vietnamese real estate market in the future.

Source: https://vtv.vn/tang-truong-nong-tin-dung-bat-dong-san-lac-quan-trong-au-lo-100251107154255857.htm