The situation in Syria remains chaotic.

Yesterday (December 9), Russian news agencies such as RIA Novosti and TASS, citing sources from the Kremlin, reported that al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum for humanitarian reasons. Although al-Assad himself and the Kremlin have not yet made an official statement, his regime in Syria is considered to have officially collapsed.

Concerns about power struggles.

Speaking to Thanh Nien newspaper last night (December 9), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster stated: “The collapse of the al-Assad regime opens the door to a new situation in Syria. But what that situation will be like will largely depend on the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly the Nusra Front) and other rebel groups.” Among the opposition military groups, HTS currently plays a leading role in the campaign to overthrow al-Assad's regime.

The Syrian capital, Damascus, is likely to face many more challenges ahead.

In the short term, Schuster predicted: “In the next two to three weeks, HTS and the remaining members of the al-Assad regime will cooperate to restore order in the cities they both control, but there will also be political and military maneuvers behind the scenes. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has promised a peaceful and fair transfer of power. But given al-Julani's past actions, it will be difficult to gain the trust of the factions and countries. This is also a period where Iran is assessing and considering measures to maintain its influence in Syria.”

“In the coming year, the real challenge will come as military groups begin to seek interests and compete for power. Meanwhile, Iran will also make decisions on how to deal with the new Syrian regime. It is highly likely we will witness another chaotic internal conflict in Syria, similar to what we saw in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011,” expert Schuster assessed.

Furthermore, he raised the issue: “If al-Julani tries to restrain hardliners, they will launch a civil war. If he fails to restrain them, Alawites, Shiites, and non-Muslim minorities will revolt. That is the risk of a renewed civil war.”

Competition from external influences

Despite failing to protect al-Assad's regime, Iran remains a regional power with significant influence over the situation in Syria. Furthermore, if it fails to maintain a certain level of influence in Syria – a strategic buffer zone for Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon – Tehran will become even weaker in the region.

"Tehran is at odds with Sunni Muslim governments . Meanwhile, HTS is a Sunni Muslim movement," former Colonel Schuster remarked, predicting that Iran might support the opposition to HTS.

Meanwhile, Russia is also facing a major challenge regarding the future of the military bases that Moscow has established in Syria over the years. These bases not only support the al-Assad regime but also hold strategic importance, playing a crucial role in Moscow's ability to maintain its presence and influence in the region.

Another important power is Türkiye, which is competing with Iran for influence in the region. For a long time, Turkey has supported the Syrian National Army (SNA), an opposition force. For many years, Ankara has had to contend with Kurdish forces fighting to establish their own state, which includes parts of Turkish territory. Therefore, the SNA has also clashed with another opposition force in Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Front, which is backed by the United States.

Therefore, the calculations between major powers both within and outside the region will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the chaotic situation in Syria.

Israel will destroy Syria's heavy weapons depots.

Last night (December 9), Reuters quoted Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz as saying that Israel would attack and destroy Syria's strategic heavy weapons depots. These depots contain weapons such as surface-to-air missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range missiles, and coastal missiles.

Although Israel and al-Assad's regime are hostile to each other, the collapse of al-Assad's government is not necessarily advantageous for Tel Aviv. This is because many groups within the Syrian opposition military forces have ideological origins in al-Qaeda and hold anti-Israel political views. Therefore, in recent days, Tel Aviv has been closely monitoring developments in Syria and deploying permanent forces in the border region between the two sides.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/the-cuoc-syria-van-day-roi-ren-185241209224351094.htm