Syria's situation is still full of turmoil

Yesterday (December 9), Russian news agencies such as RIA Novosti and TASS quoted Kremlin sources as saying that Mr. al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and were granted asylum for humanitarian reasons. Although Mr. al-Assad himself and the Kremlin have not officially spoken out, his regime in Syria has officially collapsed.

Fear of power struggle

Responding to Thanh Nien last night (December 9), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster commented: “The collapse of the al-Assad regime opens the door to a new situation in Syria. But how that situation turns out will largely depend on the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly the Nusra Front) and other rebel groups.” Among the opposition military groups, HTS is currently playing a pioneering role in the campaign to overthrow al-Assad’s regime.

Syria's capital Damascus may still experience many storms.

In the short term, Mr. Schuster predicted: “In the next 2-3 weeks, HTS and the remaining al-Assad regime will cooperate to restore order in the cities that both control, but there will also be political and military moves behind the scenes. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has promised a peaceful and fair transfer of power. But given what al-Julani has done in the past, it is difficult to gain the trust of factions and countries. This is also the period when Iran evaluates to consider measures to maintain its influence in Syria.”

“The real challenge will come next year as the militias begin to seek their interests and compete for power. Meanwhile, Iran will also have to decide how to deal with the new Syrian regime. It is likely that we will see a chaotic civil war in Syria, as we saw in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011,” Schuster said.

Besides, he raised the question: “If al-Julani tries to restrain the hardliners, they will start a civil war. If he fails to restrain them, the Alawites, Shiites and non-Muslim minorities will revolt. That is the risk of re-igniting civil war.”

Competition from outside influences

Despite its failure to protect the al-Assad regime, Iran remains a regional power with influence over the situation in Syria. Moreover, if it does not find a way to maintain some influence in Syria – which is a strategic belt for Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon – Tehran will become even weaker in the region.

“Tehran is at odds with Sunni Muslim governments. HTS is a Sunni Muslim movement,” said former colonel Schuster, predicting that Iran would likely support the opposition to HTS.

Meanwhile, Russia is also facing a major challenge regarding the future of the military bases that Moscow has established in Syria over the years. Not only do these bases support the al-Assad regime, but they are also strategically located and play an important role in Moscow maintaining its presence and influence in the region.

Another important player is Türkiye, which is competing with Iran for influence in the region. Turkey has long supported an opposition force, the Syrian National Army (SNA). For many years, Ankara has had to deal with Kurdish forces that are fighting to establish their own state, including Turkish territory. Therefore, the SNA has also clashed with another opposition force in Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Front, which is backed by the United States.

Therefore, the calculations between the powers both inside and outside the region certainly have a significant impact on the chaotic situation in Syria.

Israel to destroy Syria's heavy weapons depots

Last night (December 9), Reuters quoted Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz as saying that Israel would attack and destroy Syria's heavy strategic weapons depots. These depots contain weapons such as surface-to-air missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range missiles and coastal missiles.

Although Israel and the al-Assad regime are enemies, the fall of the al-Assad regime is not necessarily favorable for Tel Aviv. Because many groups in the Syrian military opposition have ideological roots in al-Qaeda with anti-Israel political views. Therefore, in recent days, Tel Aviv has been closely following developments in Syria and has mobilized regular forces in the border area between the two sides.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/the-cuoc-syria-van-day-roi-ren-185241209224351094.htm