Stock market new week: VN-Index towards 1,500 point mark, increasing fluctuations

The domestic stock market continued to have an impressive week (July 14-18), bringing the VN-Index close to the 1,500-point mark. This is the fifth consecutive week of increase for the index. Abundant liquidity and positive sentiment are the two main factors supporting the market's increase.

Illustration photo.

If the cash flow is maintained, the VN-Index will likely maintain its upward momentum; however, the market may experience more fluctuations around the 1,500 point mark.

Strong cash flow, positive sentiment

Global stock markets also had a very good trading week, with many markets gaining positive points. US stocks rose well with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes increasing by +0.6% and +1.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones ended the trading week with a slight decrease of -0.1%. The market continued to set new records thanks to a positive start to the semi-annual financial reporting season on Wall Street.

In Asia, except for the Philippines down -2.4%, India and Malaysia down slightly -0.7%, other markets all saw green points last week, of which the strongest was Thailand with an increase of +7.6%, Indonesia +3.8%, Hong Kong +2.8%...

The Vietnamese stock market was no exception with a week of positive trading. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,497.28 points, up +39.52 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.71% compared to the previous week, marking the 5th consecutive week of increase, at one point reaching a peak of 1,501.2 points. Midcap and Smallcap stocks increased by +3.52% and +3.11% respectively, alongside the Bluechips group, with the VN30 hitting a new peak and increasing by +3.13%.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also had positive developments. Of which, the HNX-Index increased by +8.96 points for the week, closing the week at 247.77 points, equivalent to an increase of +3.75% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the UPCoM-Index increased by +2.02 points to close at 104.74 points.

Statistics for the week show that some groups of stocks have increased more strongly than the market such as: Real Estate (+9.38%), Vingroup (+9.20%), Securities (+5.87%), Retail (+4.12%)... On the contrary, groups of stocks that go against the market such as: Logistics (-1.30%), Insurance (-1.27%), Viettel (-1.08%)...

Market breadth this week shows that cash flow has a more positive spread than the previous week. Capital concentration and increased performance in the index are concentrated in stock groups such as: Securities, Real Estate, Retail, Vingroup, Electricity Production and Distribution, Public Investment, Oil and Gas, etc.

Cash flow continued to create highlights for the stock market last week. Accordingly, the average trading value of the entire market last week reached VND38,726 billion, up +13.3% compared to the previous week, in which the order matching liquidity also increased +11.4% to VND34,425 billion.

Cash flow this week was supported by domestic money sources, while foreign money flow somewhat slowed down after many weeks of good net buying.

Specifically, during the week, foreign investors net bought +1,291 billion VND, marking the third consecutive week of net buying. Since the session of returning to net buying (July 2), foreign investors have net bought a total of nearly 13,230 billion VND. Accumulated from the beginning of the year across the entire market, foreign investors' net selling has decreased significantly, to -30,651 billion VND.

Last week, foreign investors net bought VPB (+654 billion VND), SSI (+582 billion VND), MSN (+354 billion VND), DXG (+347 billion VND), while net selling VCB (-397 billion VND), GMD (-366 billion VND)...

The market's current P/E (ttm) is at 15.2x, no longer cheap as it is approaching the 5-year average (15.5x). However, the current valuation is still lower than when the VN-Index was at 1,500 points in 2021, when the P/E ratio was in the 20-21x range.

VN-Index will surpass 1,500 points, accompanied by fluctuations?

The domestic stock market is showing the strongest increase in many years. If only counting from the beginning of April 2025 until now, the VN-Index has increased by about 40%, equivalent to nearly 430 points. More specifically, the market has shown a clear impression in the past 2-3 weeks. Not only the score but also the cash flow is more remarkable. Both domestic and foreign cash flows have increased significantly.

While foreign net buying returned quite well, with a sharp decrease in net buying value from the beginning of the year to the end of June, foreign investors showed a breakthrough. According to statistics, average liquidity per session since the beginning of July increased by +75.2% over the same period and +44.6% over June, reaching VND33,931 billion/session. Since the beginning of the year, although liquidity has decreased slightly over the same period, the average liquidity per session of the whole market reached VND22,920 billion/session, up +8.72% over the average level in 2024.

In fact, the market has seen some fluctuations as the VN-Index journeys towards the 1,500-point mark. This may continue this week, but the opportunity for the VN-Index to surpass the 1,500-point mark is still very high. Domestic cash flow still shows its strength to lead the market when foreign cash flow seems to be weak last week.

This "dream" cash flow combined with positive sentiment and business results of many enterprises will be factors that help VN-Index overcome resistance to reach a new peak. The liquidity level of 38,726 billion VND/session last week was only after the record liquidity zone of 40,000-43,000 VND at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 - the period when cash flow was sucked into the stock market because of Covid-19.

Some forecasts suggest that the market is likely to surpass the 1,500-point peak this week, but there will be more fluctuations. Liquidity continues to increase and cash flow is strong in small and medium-sized stocks, while pillar stocks or Bluechips play a role in maintaining or regulating the general index. Technically, the main resistance zone for the market is in the VN-Index area of 1,520-1,540 points.

In the context of a prolonged uptrend but strong cash flow, protecting results should be the top priority. This context can easily cause many investors to have a "fomo" mentality, so they should be sober in selecting stocks, instead of following the general upward trend of the index. Prioritizing directing cash flow to stocks with good business results and positive medium-term prospects should be given priority.

LONG AN

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-vn-index-huong-toi-moc-1500-diem-rung-lac-gia-tang-post895148.html