Mixed information on weakening USD, export coffee prices fluctuate

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading session on March 11, the prices of two coffee products decreased by 0.11% for Arabica and 0.35% for Robusta, respectively. Conflicting fundamental information due to the weakening of the USD/BRL exchange rate and positive signals from the supply source caused coffee prices to fluctuate during the session.

The prices of two coffee products decreased by 0.11% for Arabica and 0.35% for Robusta respectively.

On the one hand, the stronger domestic Brazilian Real has pulled the USD/BRL exchange rate down by 0.02%. The falling exchange rate differential has caused Brazilian farmers to limit their coffee sales.

On the other hand, in addition to the large export data in Brazil, the increasing Arabica inventory has put pressure on prices. At the end of the session on March 8, the total volume of certified Arabica on the ICE increased by 13,875 bags, reaching 424,752 bags, the highest level in the past 4 months.

Concerns about Robusta supply shortages have been somewhat eased by forecasts of rains returning to Vietnam’s main coffee growing regions. In addition, Robusta inventories on the ICE closed on March 7 with an additional 290 tonnes, bringing the total amount of coffee stored there to 24,320 tonnes.

Coffee prices in the domestic markets of Vietnam and Indonesia reached new records last week, due to low inventories and still very high demand. The price difference was pushed up to a very high level, at 500-550 USD/ton for Robusta grade II, 5% black broken coffee and 750-800 USD/ton for Sumatra grade 4, 80 defective beans.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development analyzed that the main reason for the increase in Robusta coffee export prices is due to concerns about supply shortages. The hot weather in key coffee growing areas has made many importers worry about the prospect of a difficult new crop of Robusta coffee supply, because Vietnam is the world's largest Robusta exporter.

Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to fall 10% to 1.656 million tonnes, a four-year low, due to drought. Meanwhile, global Robusta coffee inventories remain volatile, causing market sentiment to remain concerned about supply shortages.

According to the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade , in February 2024, Robusta coffee prices in the domestic market increased sharply compared to the end of January 2024 due to high demand. It is estimated that in February 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 200,000 tons, worth 655 million USD, down 16.1% in volume and 9.8% in value compared to January 2024, compared to February 2023, down 0.2% in volume but up 50.3% in value.

In the first two months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated at 438,000 tons, worth 1.38 billion USD, up 27.9% in volume and 85% in value over the same period in 2023. In February 2024, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee is estimated at 3,276 USD/ton, up 7.4% over January 2024 and up 50.6% over February 2023. In the first two months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee is estimated at 3,153 USD/ton, up 44.7% over the same period in 2023.

In February 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee is estimated at 3,276 USD/ton.

In terms of export types, in January 2024, Vietnam increased exports of Robusta and Arabica coffee compared to December 2023, but decreased exports of Excelsa and processed coffee. Compared to January 2023, Vietnam increased exports of most coffee types, except Arabica coffee.

According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in January 2024, Vietnam exported approximately 216.38 thousand tons of Robusta coffee, worth 613.57 million USD, up 15.4% in volume and 25.7% in value compared to December 2023, and up 68% in volume and 155.7% in value compared to January 2023.

In particular, Vietnam has boosted Robusta coffee exports to many markets, such as Italy, Spain, Russia, Indonesia, Belgium, China, Philippines... On the contrary, Robusta coffee exports to some traditional markets have decreased, such as Germany, Japan, the US...

In January 2024, Arabica coffee exports reached 5.25 thousand tons, worth 20.15 million USD, up 78.5% in volume and 83.1% in value compared to December 2023, but down 27.1% in volume and 25.7% in value compared to January 2023.

Of which, Arabica coffee exports to many markets recorded high growth compared to December 2023 and January 2023, such as: the US, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thong-tin-trai-chieu-truoc-su-suy-yeu-cua-dong-usd-gia-ca-phe-xuat-khau-giang-co-308126.html