Immediately after his overwhelming victory in the November 6 election, US President-elect Donald Trump immediately began implementing his commitment to end the war in Ukraine 'within 24 hours'.
Polytechnic University students look out of the broken glass windows of their dormitory in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on November 11, after a Russian airstrike. Photo: REUTERS
Trump's three "cards"
Possessing a number of influential "cards" that are large enough for both Ukraine and Russia to feel the need to consider narrowing the gap at the negotiating table, it seems that Mr. Trump is gradually shaping a potential "silver bullet" for the Ukraine issue. The first card is the "new awareness" of both Russia and Ukraine about the long-term damage from a war of attrition that is gradually exhausting all sides. The announcement of readiness to resume dialogue on prisoner exchange with Russia from November 3, the abandonment of a critical stance to switch to accepting the China-Brazil peace initiative, and the supportive speech from President Zelensky himself for Mr. Trump's "peace through strength" policy are strengthening the premises for de-escalation. Not only that, the Russian side is also making moves to express its desire to temporarily stop escalation at a stage that is assessed to have many "game-changing" advantages on the battlefield. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on November 9 expressed his willingness to listen to Trump's proposals, which means acknowledging the prospect of the United States becoming an official mediator for both Russia and Ukraine. Trump's second card is related to the "last connections" between Russia and Ukraine that billionaire Elon Musk has worked hard to maintain up to this point. According to exclusive reports by the Wall Street Journal about the secret process of keeping regular contact with President Putin since the outbreak of the war, combined with President Zelensky's sympathy for SpaceX's Starlink satellite Internet network, the "Musk factor" has become the last key connection between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, Musk's participation in President-elect Donald Trump's call with Ukraine's top leader on November 6, and possibly in the upcoming phone call with Putin, will fully promote the effectiveness of this "last connection". And Mr. Trump's third card lies in the value of the "last gifts" that the US government and Western partners can send to Ukraine. The most typical is the "last minute" aid package worth 6 billion USD that the current US President Joe Biden's administration pledged to disburse to Ukraine, along with the 50 billion USD Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) mechanism that the G-7 developed economies provided to Ukraine based on the interest from 330 billion USD of Russian assets frozen by the West. While the World Bank (WB) and other organizations have estimated the cost of recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine at about 500 billion USD and is increasing, the above support is only enough to maintain aid for Ukraine for another 6 months. Mr. Trump's "non-commitment" stance on increasing aid will therefore effectively put pressure on the ability to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, as well as pressure on Russia in case Mr. Putin refuses to de-escalate the war, causing Trump to consider maintaining the flow of aid money again.Optimistic perspectives
Leveraging all three of the above "cards", Mr. Trump's peace plan is being identified through three steps being implemented synchronously through unofficial announcements of "pilot" efforts to peel off each layer of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to many sources, one of the first steps that Mr. Trump is aiming for is to establish a demilitarized "buffer zone" along the current front line between Russia and Ukraine, more than 1,200km long and secured by British and European Union (EU) peacekeeping forces. The above step will create the foundation for subsequent deployments to resolve difficult conditions into more feasible proposals on both sides of the war. In particular, Mr. Trump can replace financial resources used for weapons aid with the establishment of a civil recovery aid fund for Ukraine or delay the roadmap to join NATO but support accelerating the process of joining the EU of Ukraine. In addition, Trump could also leverage the new common interests between Russia and Ukraine, with his support for digital currencies becoming a pillar of his campaign agenda. This is especially important given that both Russia and Ukraine are important centers for digital currency trading and have benefited from the record price increase of Bitcoin following Trump’s victory on November 6. All in all, with the prospect of ending the fighting in Ukraine estimated to end the potential financial losses of around $100 billion for the United States and nearly $200 billion for Europe, a new stage is being formed that suits Trump’s trump cards and negotiating leverage. Both Russia and Ukraine are making bolder decisions on the battlefield before Trump takes office in January 2025. While Russia deployed North Korean troops on both its rear and front lines at the same time as a large number of Belarusian troops have been approaching the northern border with Ukraine since early November, the Zelensky administration also conducted its largest-ever drone airstrike on the Russian capital Moscow on the evening of November 9.Tuoitre.vn
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/thuong-vu-hoa-binh-cua-ong-trump-o-ukraine-20241111225504926.htm
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