USD exchange rate today (June 16): USD likely to continue to decrease

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against six major currencies, stood at 98.14.

Forecast of USD trend this week

Weak demand for dollar-denominated assets will keep the greenback falling this week, amid growing concerns about the US budget deficit and federal debt burden.

US President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies, coupled with the House's recent passage of a tax cut and spending bill - expected to add $3.3 trillion to the US's already massive $36.2 trillion debt - have left many investors worried.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

Long-term government bond yields have surged as the term premium – the risk premium investors demand for holding long-term debt – has spurred a wave of capital outflows from US assets and sent the DXY index down nearly 10% against a basket of major currencies since mid-January.

The traditional correlation between the US dollar and 10-year US bond yields is also breaking down.

“There is clearly a wave of ‘selling’ of US assets, and the extent to which demand for the dollar will decline will depend on how much US economic growth is affected by the current policies of the administration,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London. “If the market continues to believe that the growth outlook will be eroded, the medium-term trend is for a further decline in the dollar.”

This week, the EUR is expected to maintain its strength thanks to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s policy of cutting interest rates, positive capital flows into Europe and the weakening of the USD. Analysts assess the trading level around 1.155 - 1.165, with the general trend leaning towards a slight increase if there is no policy or geopolitical shock.

“We expect the risk of the US term premium to increase as fiscal concerns and labor market data start to weaken. That is a very unfavorable combination for the USD,” said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi. “Our previous target for EUR/USD was 1.15, but we now believe it could go to 1.20, and that could happen sooner than expected if the aforementioned drivers play out.”

Illustration photo: vtv.vn

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on June 16, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at 24,975 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office for buying and selling is kept at: 23,777 VND - 26,173 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: