USD exchange rate today (June 23): USD will maintain the trend...

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against six major currencies, stood at 98.77.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose about 0.6% last week. The recovery was largely driven by the flight to safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

However, the medium-term trend of DXY remains unclear. The market will continue to closely monitor developments from the Middle East, as well as a series of US economic data such as inflation, employment and statements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). If geopolitical pressure continues and money flows continue to flow into the USD, the DXY index may continue to inch up. However, the upside momentum will be limited if there is no clear breakout from the resistance zone above 99.4. Therefore, in the short term, DXY is expected to continue to recover slightly, but the downtrend will still prevail if there are no breakthroughs in macro data or geopolitical situations.

Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has fluctuated around 4.38% - 4.46% throughout the week, recording 4.38% on June 20. The slight decrease in the yield shows that the market is still cautious about the US economic outlook and is worried that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer.

The EUR/USD pair has recovered slightly after falling to near 1.0670 and is currently trading around 1.072. The euro remains under pressure due to weak economic data from the eurozone, especially from Germany and France. Resistance for the EUR/USD lies at 1.08 and 1.0880, above which the EUR could recover to the 1.10 area.

The Fed’s monetary policy will play a key role, as interest rates remain high and show no signs of cutting them in the near term. Upcoming economic data, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will play a key role in shaping the Fed’s interest rate policy. Recent economic reports have shown steady consumer spending, supporting the strength of the USD.

Illustration photo / vietnambiz.vn

In addition, interest rate decisions from central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, or the European Central Bank (ECB) also affect the USD exchange rate against other currencies. If the ECB cuts interest rates sharply, the euro may weaken, helping the USD appreciate.

Investors have been looking for safe haven assets amid heightened risk aversion after US President Donald Trump announced that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also raised concerns about oil supplies, which could push up oil prices and indirectly support the US dollar. The news of the US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites has strengthened the greenback, thanks to its traditional role as a financial haven in times of global uncertainty. However, if US economic data shows signs of weakness or trade tensions ease, the dollar could fall slightly.

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on June 23, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 25,031 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office for buying and selling is kept at: 23,830 VND - 26,232 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: