Ukraine 'lost' funding, US sent final package, EU plans to take on leadership role?

The momentum of funding for Ukraine from Western partners is slowing, with actual support falling to its lowest level since January 2022. This conclusion was updated by the authors of the Ukraine Funding Tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on December 7.

Accordingly, the period from August to October 2023 saw a sharp decrease in new aid commitments, with the value of new packages reaching only 2.11 billion EUR, down 87% compared to the same period in 2022 and the lowest level since January 2022.

Meanwhile, on December 6, the Pentagon announced a new aid package worth $175 million for Ukraine. The package includes a variety of weapons, spare parts and the latest equipment sent to Kiev.

But unfortunately, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed in a statement that this new aid package could be one of the last security assistance packages that Washington sends to Kiev if the US Congress does not pass the supplementary budget bill. In fact, the bill cannot be discussed in the Senate because it does not have the minimum 60 votes in favor.

German Iris-T SLM air defense system. (Source: Diehl Defence)

According to the study by analysts at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, "Of the 42 donors tracked, only 20 have pledged new aid packages in the past three months, the smallest proportion of active donors since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There have also been very few new pledges from the European Union and the United States."

The largest “unfinished” commitments so far are from the EU, which does not include unapproved packages, while US aid is gradually being cut.

“Our data confirm quite clearly the more hesitant attitude of donors in recent months. Ukraine is increasingly dependent on a few core donors – who continue to provide significant support, such as Germany, the US or the Nordic countries.

With the uncertainty over the possibility of further US aid, Ukraine can now only hope that the EU will finally approve the long-announced €50 billion package. It is quite a sensitive issue if it is delayed any further,” said Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Funding Tracker and director of the Kiel Institute Research Center.

The main active donors are individual European countries, such as Croatia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland (which do not provide military assistance), as well as NATO countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom.

In addition, Ukraine can rely on previously committed large multi-year programs, which now account for the bulk of actual aid provided.

For example, Denmark, Germany and Norway have provided EUR 1.2 billion, EUR 1 billion and EUR 662 million in military aid respectively in the past three months, following previous multi-year plans.

In terms of military aid, the EU continues to catch up and even outpace the US. In particular, Germany and the Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) have allocated significant new aid in recent months.

Of the total EUR 25 billion pledged for heavy weapons (January 2022 - October 2023), the US accounts for 43% of the total value, while all EU countries and institutions together account for 47% and the remainder comes from various other donors, including the UK and Canada.

In the past three months (August, September and October), EU countries have allocated 780 million euros worth of heavy weapons, compared to just 500 million euros from the US.

New commitments from Germany and the Nordic countries from August 2023 contribute to the trend of European leadership. Through Germany's new Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems and 19 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark within the framework of a joint air alliance with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Other examples of EU cooperation in military assistance to Kiev include new joint procurement agreements between the Netherlands, Denmark and the Czech Republic to supply Ukraine with 15 modernized T-72EA main battle tanks, as well as a series of joint procurement plans by the Nordic countries to purchase 155 mm ammunition.

Among the top 10 donors, military aid now accounts for 58% of total aid (as of October 31, 2023).

The US remains the largest military donor, with total commitments of €44 billion. But Germany is catching up, with total military commitments now exceeding €17 billion. Smaller countries such as the Nordic countries and the Netherlands are also playing an increasingly important role in providing military aid to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

The Ukraine Funding Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Kiev as of January 24, 2022. The current report covers the period from January 24, 22 to October 31, 2023.

Comprehensive support from 40 countries is monitored, including the EU, G7 members, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan (China) and India.

In addition, EU institutions are counted as separate donors.

The tracker keeps a list of pledges from governments to Kiev. Private donations or donations from international organizations like the IMF are not included in the main database.

The database combines official government sources with information from international media. In-kind aid, such as medical supplies, food or military equipment, is quantified based on market prices or information about previous crises involving state aid.

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