In the first half of 2024, the trade surplus is estimated to reach 8.4 billion USD. In the first half of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports are estimated to earn 3.4 billion USD. |
Exports in 6 months estimated to increase by 13.8%
Mr. Bui Huy Son - Director of the Department of Planning and Finance ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) - said that the export turnover of goods in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 188.97 billion USD, an increase of 13.8% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 11.3%).
In the first 6 months of the year, the total import-export turnover of goods is estimated at 369.59 billion USD, an increase of 16.03% over the same period last year. |
The export of the key group of processing and manufacturing industry is estimated at 159.92 billion USD, accounting for 84.63% of total export turnover and increasing by 13.8% over the same period in 2023 (same period decreased by 12.6%). Agricultural products continue to be a bright spot in terms of export growth rate, increasing by 18.8% over the same period in 2023 (same period decreased by 2.3%), total export turnover is estimated at 18.21 billion USD in the first 6 months of 2024.
Regarding fruits and vegetables, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association said that according to estimates from the General Department of Customs, in the first half of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached 3.4 billion USD, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. Of which, durian, dragon fruit, banana and longan are the fruits that contribute greatly to the growth of fruit and vegetable exports.
Also according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 6 months of the year, the total import-export turnover of goods is estimated at 369.59 billion USD, up 16.03% over the same period last year. The trade balance of goods continues to have a surplus with an estimated trade surplus of 8.4 billion USD.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh - Consulting Director of Think Future Consultancy - said that thanks to the recovery of exports, Vietnam's economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased to 5.66%, compared to the increase of 3.32% in the first quarter of 2023. The number of unemployment benefit applications in the first quarter of 2024 also decreased to 168 thousand, the lowest level in 10 quarters, showing an improvement in the employment sector and business operations of enterprises.
Economic growth will be better thanks to exports
Compared to other countries in the world , the openness of Vietnam's economy is very large. According to statistics from the World Bank, the export value of goods and services of Vietnam is equivalent to 94% of GDP, ranking 14th globally. In Vietnam's total exports, goods exports account for the majority with 82% of GDP. Service exports, mainly tourism and transportation services, account for 12% of GDP. To compare, two other important components of economic growth are retail sales of goods and services (reflecting the consumer demand of the population), and total social investment (including private investment, public investment, FDI investment), accounting for only 61% and 33% of GDP, respectively.
Affirming that exports are the direct driving force and have the greatest impact on Vietnam's economic growth, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh analyzed that in 2018 and 2019, Vietnam achieved GDP growth of over 7%, the highest level in 10 years. At the same time, exports increased by 13.2% and 8.4% respectively. In 2023, when exports decreased by 4.6%, GDP would only reach 5%. Fortunately, the export sector is showing positive signs.
As the most important driving force of the economy, Vietnam's exports are heavily dependent on the demand of developed economies. Currently, the US, EU, South Korea and Japan account for 53% of Vietnam's merchandise export value. The decline in exports to these markets has caused total exports to decrease and slowed Vietnam's economic growth. In 2023, exports to the US will decrease by 11.3%, the EU by 6.7%, South Korea by 6.7% and Japan by 3.7%.
Moving into 2024, developed economies are regaining positive growth momentum, with growth forecast at 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 (compared to 1.6% in 2023). The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global merchandise trade will increase by 2.6% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, after declining by 1.2% in 2023.
Improved purchasing power in developed countries has had a clear impact on the Vietnamese economy. Merchandise exports in the first five months of 2024 increased by 15.2%, compared to a decrease of 11.7% in the same period in 2023. Exports to the US, EU, South Korea and Japan all returned to good growth, reaching 22.3%, 16.1%, 10.9% and 3.2%, respectively.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh commented that with the economic forecast of developed markets continuing to trend positively, and the import of consumer goods from the US increasing again, we can be confident that Vietnam's exports will be better in the remaining months of 2024. Export growth in 2025 is also expected to be positive, as developed economies are forecast to continue to grow strongly.
With positive signals from the market, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen - General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association also forecasts that fruit and vegetable exports will continue to grow by 15 - 20% this year. If the opportunities from the protocols are well utilized, fruit and vegetable exports could reach 7 billion USD this year, an increase of 0.5 - 1 billion USD compared to the plan set out by the agricultural sector at the end of last year.
In addition to positive signals, economic experts said that although import-export activities have grown well, they still face many challenges. That is, the increase in exports is contributed by the increase in prices (especially agricultural products and energy) and the increase in transportation costs (due to the impact of political conflicts) and the appreciation of the USD.
On the other hand, import-export activities continue to depend on a number of markets, goods and FDI sectors. Some key export items of Vietnam to major markets such as the EU, the US, etc. continue to face pressure from trade defense investigations, technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transformation.
In the second half of 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that import and export activities will have many advantages when existing FTAs with partners/markets continue to have a positive impact, maintaining Vietnam's advantages in trade and investment activities. However, the global economy is entering a new period with many risks and challenges and unpredictability, increasing competition in Vietnam's export markets...
Therefore, to complete the planned tasks in the last 6 months of the year and the whole year of 2024, in the field of import and export, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will strongly implement solutions to unblock production, develop stable supply sources for export and domestic market; ensure energy security. Focus on market solutions, promote export and domestic consumption; effectively control import and quality of goods circulating on the market.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-duoc-du-bao-se-tiep-tuc-tang-truong-tich-cuc-327337.html
Comment (0)