4 scenarios for Russia-Ukraine conflict if Trump is re-elected

(Dan Tri) - Former President Donald Trump continues to make the public curious about the possibilities that could happen on the battlefield in Ukraine if he returns to the White House.

As the US gears up for the November presidential election, one question that remains of public interest is what US policy toward Ukraine will be if former President Donald Trump is re-elected. In the event that Mr. Trump returns to the White House, the course of the war in Ukraine will depend largely on whether the new administration considers supporting Ukraine to be riskier than doing nothing, in terms of security, politics and economics. In addition, the conflict situation also depends on the risk tolerance of other important actors such as Russia, Ukraine, European countries and China. On that basis, Stratfor Worldview identifies four main scenarios that could happen to the Russia-Ukraine war if Mr. Trump is re-elected. Scenario 1: Frozen conflict A likely scenario is a frozen conflict, with a fragile ceasefire to temporarily end hostilities, but no peace agreement. In this scenario, the US might not cut off aid completely and abandon Ukraine, but the extent of Washington’s aid cuts would be enough to force Ukraine into peace talks with Russia. Ukraine is already facing constraints on both equipment and personnel. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy has fared well, but is showing signs of strain. A pause in fighting would allow both sides to recover and adjust. The international community could also provide assistance to both sides, including aid to rebuild Ukraine and some easing of sanctions on Russia. This would be an imperfect but mutually acceptable outcome. This scenario would allow Russia to consolidate the areas it has annexed from Ukraine and prepare its forces if the fighting resumes. A frozen conflict would also ensure that NATO does not expand further eastward, a trend that Moscow sees as a threat to its national security. Meanwhile, Europe could continue to focus on bolstering Ukraine’s military to prevent Russia from launching new attacks. Such a ceasefire is possible, as some Reuters analyses suggest Russia is willing to hold off on a ceasefire to freeze the conflict. Moreover, some Western governments and political groups believe a negotiated solution is within reach and should be encouraged. They consider Moscow’s top demands to slow down military support and freeze Ukraine’s accession to NATO. For Ukraine, the lack of US aid would make it difficult for it to continue fighting because it fears losing more territory. Scenario 2: US maintains aid, risking further escalation

US soldiers prepare aid weapons to be delivered to Ukraine (Photo: US Air Force).

If Trump wins, the war in Ukraine could continue to drag on with the risk of further US involvement. He could maintain the policies of the Joe Biden administration towards Ukraine, refuse to push Kiev to negotiate, continue to provide military support to Ukraine in various forms from providing weapons to sharing intelligence and supporting training of soldiers. If the US maintains its support for Ukraine, the war risks escalating more fiercely. In order to make tougher responses on the battlefield, it is not impossible that Trump will change the US's calculations and provide Ukraine with weapons systems that the current administration considers a "red line". He could also allow Kiev to use US-aided weapons to attack Russian territory. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump is fully capable of mentioning the nuclear weapons card in his threats. He could approach the nuclear issue not according to the old conservative orthodoxy but according to his own rules to strengthen the position of the United States and Ukraine at the negotiating table. Although he has been critical of the current administration for its aid to Ukraine, ending that aid would not be easy for Trump. Even if he really intended to abandon Ukraine, he would have to fight within his own party. Trump is believed to still have some influence in the Republican Party, but he has struggled to unify his opinion on issues related to Russia and Ukraine policy. In 2017, the Republican-controlled US Congress imposed sanctions against Russia that the White House did not want. To this day, strong support for Ukraine exists among Republican lawmakers and among Republican voters. Trump is aware of this, and he also knows how negative a cutoff of aid to Ukraine would be for his image. The most obvious lesson is the withdrawal from Afghanistan and its consequences for the Biden administration. There is reason to believe that his statements about ending the war in Ukraine are more campaign rhetoric and propaganda than concrete actions. Claiming that he could end the war in 24 hours in an effort to push Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table does not mean that Trump will adopt a conciliatory and accommodating attitude toward Russia in exchange for peace talks, as some have suggested. From 2017 to 2021, Trump did not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or its military presence in eastern Ukraine. He also broke with the policy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, by sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank missiles. Montenegro and North Macedonia were admitted to NATO with the approval of the Trump administration. In Syria, the US also took military action against Russia in 2018. During his term, Mr. Trump has not had to deal directly with any war. From 2017 to 2021, Russia did not make any major military moves. However, the next US presidential term will probably see Ukraine lose its first major European war since 1945. With such a prospect, America's position in the world will be seriously threatened, and blaming previous administrations will not help improve the situation. Moreover, the US has a right to worry that cutting aid to Ukraine will encourage China to increase its activities in the Indo-Pacific, witnessing Washington's lack of determination to protect its allies. A second term under Mr. Trump, if it really happens, cannot exclude the possibility of escalating the conflict. His communication and working style can bring risks. If the conflict cannot be ended within 24 hours as promised, Mr. Trump is expected to shift to strengthening his power and intervening more deeply in the war in Ukraine. At that time, Russia will be forced to respond in kind and cause the conflict to expand further. In this scenario, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage fiercely, requiring large economic and military costs and increasing human losses for both countries. However, the US's continued support will show Ukraine a stronger security guarantee from the West. Scenario 3: Push Russia and Ukraine to negotiate an end to the conflict While the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has affirmed its readiness to cooperate with the US regardless of who the next president is, many Ukrainians are worried that Mr. Trump's plan to end the conflict means cutting off military aid to Kiev. That leaves Ukraine with a choice: continue fighting without any additional US support and suffer heavy losses, or negotiate peace on unfavorable terms. This possibility is based on Trump's recent actions and statements about Ukraine. In a recent interview, Trump reiterated his claim that if re-elected, he could end the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours. However, when asked how he would do that, he did not answer. In an interview with Reuters last year, he said Ukraine might have to cede some territory to reach a peace deal. Under the slogan "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), Trump has adjusted US foreign policy to the "America First" principle during his term, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and canceling the nuclear deal with Iran. In this spirit, Mr. Trump also did not commit to providing more aid to Ukraine if he returned to the White House and asked European countries to increase their contributions. He even suggested that the US should not protect allies that do not contribute enough to NATO. Earlier in February, Mr. Trump tried to call on the Republican Party to block the Senate from passing a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. The former President also stated that the US should stop foreign aid unless it was provided in the form of loans. In addition, Mr. Trump's personal motives need to be taken into account to explain why this could happen. The former President is said to have had problems with the Ukrainian government since 2019 when he was accused of interfering in the 2020 election. Mr. Trump pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce an investigation into incumbent President Joe Biden, but Ukraine refused. However, the possibility of a peace deal depends not only on Trump’s actions, but also on Russia’s own strategic interests and calculations. Since the conflict broke out more than two years ago, President Vladimir Putin has said he would end the military campaign in Ukraine if Kiev abandoned its intention to join NATO and withdrew its troops from the four regions that Russia has annexed: Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Putin has stressed that Moscow’s goal is to end the conflict, not simply freeze it. In addition, he has demanded that the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine be fully protected, and that all Western sanctions against Russia be lifted. However, a final agreement that satisfies both sides and leads to a permanent peace settlement is extremely difficult, as both Russia and Ukraine want to control the regions that Russia has annexed since 2022. Meanwhile, Russia will not accept a deal that allows Ukraine to join NATO. On the other hand, Ukraine has no intention of giving up this ambition. Scenario 4: Ukraine tries to drag NATO into war

Ukrainian soldiers fire on Russian positions in Donetsk (Photo: Getty).

This is the worst-case scenario for all parties involved in the war, but it is unlikely to happen. In this scenario, Kiev realizes that if Trump is re-elected and cuts aid to Ukraine, it will have no security, political and material guarantees. Moreover, Ukraine will most likely lose support from NATO. Therefore, in order to protect its interests to the end, Kiev seems to be increasingly taking risks with its offensive on Russian territory, even if this risks triggering Moscow’s retaliation and starting a spiral of tit-for-tat escalation, eventually leading to a larger conflict between Russia and NATO. One of the most likely causes of such a wide-ranging conflict is that Ukraine violates Western restrictions and uses its weapons to attack Russian territory, targeting energy facilities and other infrastructure. However, this scenario is almost impossible because Kiev knows that Western powers will not risk a direct conflict with Russia. Moreover, if a Russia-NATO conflict occurs, it will mean World War III. The Trump administration will almost certainly reduce support for Ukraine to redirect resources. Thus, more than 2 years after the fiercest ground war in Europe since World War II broke out, both Moscow and Kiev have said they are considering the possibility of negotiations, although they have not yet clearly expressed their views on what a ceasefire would look like. Both sides are paying attention to the US presidential election in November. In this year's election, foreign policy has become a weighty issue and a concern for voters. Therefore, it can be said that the situation of the Ukraine conflict is closely tied to the results of the US presidential election in November.

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