Mr. Aat Pisanwanich, an expert on international economics and ASEAN issues and an advisor at Intelligence Research Consultant Co Ltd, commented that Thailand faces five significant challenges in 2025.
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| Thailand is predicted to be the 'sick man' with economic growth expected to be 2.4% in 2024. (Source: Chiangrai Times) |
The challenges that Mr. Aat Pisanwanic raised include: Household debt issues, investment and interest rate policies, economic policies of US President-elect Donald Trump in his second term, the slowdown of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.
This expert commented that Mr. Trump's economic policy is expected to reduce Thailand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by 0.3-0.5%.
In 2025, the country's economy is expected to grow 2.2-2.7%, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth below 3%.
US tariffs imposed under Mr Trump's policy are likely to reduce Thailand's exports to the US by 5-10%, causing an overall decline in exports of 2%.
"The country's trade deficit with the world's largest economy is expected to narrow to 27.5 billion baht this year," said Aat Pisanwanic.
Industries most affected by US tariffs include electronics, auto parts, rubber and rubber products, apparel, plastics, fruits, seafood, rice and beverages.
Mr. Aat also emphasized the importance of China to the global economy and the Thai economy. Beijing's slowing economic growth has affected demand for goods and reduced the number of tourists from the country of one billion people going abroad.
Meanwhile, China's strategy of maintaining production levels to achieve its 5% economic growth target poses additional risks to its trading partners as it leads to a flood of Chinese products into the markets of its trading partners, including Thailand.
"If China's economic growth falls below 5% by 2025, this will affect Thailand's exports to China and reduce the number of tourists from the country of a billion people," the expert warned.
In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Thailand is predicted to be the “sick man” with an expected GDP growth of 2.4% in 2024, ranking ninth among ASEAN member states.
Meanwhile, Vietnam and Cambodia are forecast to lead the region in growth rate.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/5-hon-da-tang-voi-kinh-te-thai-lan-nguoi-om-co-vuc-day-trong-nam-2025-299495.html
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