Bitcoin plummets, causing the market to evaporate billions of dollars, what is the scenario for October?

(Dan Tri) - The sudden crash to 112,000 USD burned 1.7 billion USD, pouring cold water on Uptober expectations. Is this a necessary shake-up or the beginning of a tumultuous period?

In just a few short hours in the early morning of September 22, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a real sharp decline. Bitcoin (BTC), the king of coins, suddenly plummeted from a stable level above 115,000 USD to 112,000 USD - the lowest price since September 10.

This lightning crash led to the collapse of the entire altcoin market, causing the capitalization to "evaporate" more than 80 billion USD and blowing up the accounts of more than 400,000 traders.

According to statistics, the total value of liquidated orders in the past 24 hours has jumped from 630 million USD to a shocking 1.7 billion USD. The largest liquidation order recorded nearly 13 million USD. This event poured cold water on the rising optimism of investors, who were expecting an “Uptober” - a term referring to the historic October of bitcoin price increase.

Bitcoin's sudden crash to $112,000 in the early morning of September 22 threw the market into chaos, liquidating more than $1.7 billion (Photo: Getty).

Between the expectation of an explosive growth cycle and the harsh reality of the market, investors are facing a big question: what scenario awaits the world's most valuable cryptocurrency next month?

"Uptober" - Prophecy Proven by History

Before the crash, optimism was in the air, and it was well-founded. Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin's best months. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has been rising in October. Notably, during the strong growth cycles of 2017 and 2021, BTC exploded by 48% and 40%, respectively, in this month alone.

This belief is further reinforced as bitcoin is on track to end September in the green for the third consecutive year. Historically, a strong September has always been a precursor to a breakout October with double-digit gains. If history repeats itself, a similar jump could push bitcoin to $165,000 from current levels.

This optimism is not just based on historical price patterns. There are three key macro and business drivers that support the bullish scenario.

First is the post-halving effect. The April 2024 halving event cut the supply of new bitcoins into half. Historically, the year following each halving (2017, 2021) has been the most explosive growth period. “Uptober” 2025 is expected to be part of this cycle, when scarce supply meets increasing demand.

Next is the influx of money from the "big guys". Spot bitcoin ETFs in the US have become a real force. The total amount of bitcoin held by these funds has exceeded 1.3 million BTC.

In the first half of September, capital inflows into these products reached their highest level since July, showing that demand from institutional investors remained strong and resilient. This money flow created a steady buying force, acting as a cushion to support prices.

Finally, the macro environment is more favorable. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has revived confidence in risk assets. Experts such as Kyle Chassé point out that the market has priced in a monetary easing cycle, anticipating abundant liquidity to be pumped into the market – the main fuel for the rally.

The $1.7 billion crash

Amid that optimism, the flash crash to $112,000 served as a wake-up call.

It shows that the market still has unpredictable risks and investor sentiment is extremely fragile.

From a technical perspective, this is a massive leveraged liquidation. As the price suddenly drops, highly leveraged long positions are forced to close, creating a domino effect of selling and pushing the price even lower. Some analysts, like “Sykodelic”, believe this could be a “final shakeout” before the market enters a period of acceleration.

Under this scenario, removing weak positions would help make the upcoming growth momentum more sustainable.

However, not everyone is optimistic. Augustine Fan, chief analyst at SignalPlus, is cautious that BTC's upside momentum will be limited. "We expect any upside in BTC to be quite limited due to low implied volatility, weak inflows and many investors still waiting to take profits to limit the upside momentum," he said.

This potential selling pressure could hold back any breakout attempt.

Similarly, Mr. Jeff Mei, CEO of BTSE, also said that this year's "Uptober" trend is unlikely due to macro uncertainties and the fact that the market did not have a significant decline in September to gain momentum.

Scenario for October: Psychological war at $112,500

The recent crash has established the $112,500 level as a crucial psychological and technical level. The price action around this area in the coming days will determine the scenario for the entire month of October.

Scenario 1: "Uptober" continues after the challenge

If bitcoin quickly recovers and holds above $112,500, it would suggest that the recent crash was just a healthy correction. ETF buying and macro confidence will return, driving the market to new highs, true to the "Uptober prophecy".

Scenario 2: Accumulation and volatility phase

If bitcoin struggles to break through resistance levels and continues to trade under pressure, the market could enter a period of sideways movement or strong volatility in a narrow range. This scenario suggests that profit-taking pressure is still strong and the market needs more time to "digest" the recent shock before determining a clear trend.

The market is in a real psychological battle. On one side is the compelling “Uptober” narrative, bolstered by solid fundamentals like the halving effect and institutional money. On the other side is the shock of $1.7 billion in liquidations, a brutal reminder of the market’s brutality.

For investors and businesses, the message is clear: the era of one-sided price increases is over. While the long-term outlook remains promising, short-term volatility is inevitable.

October will be a key test of bitcoin's intrinsic strength. Investors will have to closely monitor the Fed's next moves, ETF inflows, and most importantly, how prices react to key support levels.

How the price can hold above key support levels and react to macro news will be key to determining whether the "Uptober" becomes a reality, or just a fond memory in history.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-lao-doc-khien-thi-truong-boc-hoi-ty-usd-kich-ban-nao-cho-thang-10-20250922152148409.htm