Stock market picture in the second half of 2024

VN-Index has many opportunities to increase points in the second half of 2024, from the 1,350 - 1,400 point area, accompanied by the increase of many large-cap stocks and small and medium-cap stocks.

Investors still have faith in the market, but they tend to trade less and wait for a good time to return to disburse.

Monetary easing policy is expected to be outlined more clearly from the third quarter.

The stock market picture in the second half of 2024 is predicted to have many bright colors when receiving favorable signs from information on macroeconomic factors. The GDP growth figure for the whole year is forecast to increase compared to the same period last year, fluctuating between 5.8 - 6%. Import-export activities, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI)... have positive signals.

The stock market has some corrective fluctuations after recovering from the bottom of 1,165 - 1,170 points, before returning to the 1,240 - 1,245 point area. VN-Index has many opportunities to increase points in the second half of 2024.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been considering the timing of a rate cut, although the current view is that it will keep rates high through the second quarter. The first rate adjustment is expected to take place on September 17-18, which means that the June 11-12 and July 30-31 meetings will not include any easing announcements. Rate cuts are sometimes postponed for extended periods when inflation data has not cooled down, unless the labor market shows signs of weakening.

If the US and world stock markets have increased to the old peak and surpassed the peak, it is likely that the Vietnamese stock market will also have a better acceleration to reach 1,350 - 1,400 points in the third quarter of 2024.

In all baseline to optimistic scenarios, the appropriate timing for a rate cut is predicted to occur at the Q3 meeting with a higher probability. If monetary policy “reverses” and the global economic recovery gradually improves towards the end of the year, the stock market is likely to perform more positively.

If the US and world stock markets have increased to the old peak and surpassed the peak, it is likely that the Vietnamese stock market will also have a better acceleration to reach 1,350 - 1,400 points in the third quarter.

The medium-term uptrend continues to be maintained in the last 6 months of the year.

The April period saw the market correct from last year's peak of 1,290 points to near 1,170 points, combined with a context of strong exchange rate fluctuations, high gold prices, not to mention escalating geopolitical instability. All these factors made some investors think of a negative scenario.

However, contrary to the unstable information, the stock market did not adjust much and had a good recovery period in the first half of May. The phenomenon of "Sell in May and Go Away" did not occur, but instead, the phenomenon of "Buy in May and stay still" occurred. Market liquidity did not increase and remained low at some points, reflecting the signal that investors still had confidence in the market. However, investors tended to trade less and wait for a good time to return to disburse. This positive development could start from the beginning of June.

Many leading stocks hit new peaks

One of the important indicators that determines the market trend as well as evaluates the market strength is the number of stocks that increase significantly compared to the market, the number of stocks that increase back to the old peak area and the number of leading stocks that surpass new peaks.

It is not difficult to list the industry groups, from finance, chemicals, retail, to oil and gas, technology - telecommunications... that have increased their points beyond the year's peak, as well as surpassing the all-time historical peak. Some large stocks can be listed such as DGC, FPT, CMG, GMD, CSV, PVS, VCB, REE, CTR, VTP, DRC, PHR, BID, CTG... The stock market's return to the old peak and surpassing the peak is just a matter of time. The favorable time will most likely take place at the end of 2024 and 2025.

Portfolio management remains important for both individual and institutional investors.

Notable sectors and stock groups

Looking at the forecasted revenue and profit growth for the whole year of 2024, it can be seen that cash flow will continue to focus on financial, chemical, steel, oil and gas, technology - telecommunications, or industrial park stocks.

This year, focusing on portfolio management is still very important for not only individual and institutional investors, but also foreign investment funds, which are likely to invest heavily at the end of the year. When exchange rate fluctuations are controlled, the process of promoting market upgrading will also be clearer. Investment opportunities will become more numerous at the end of the year.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/buc-tranh-thi-truong-chung-khoan-giai-doan-nua-cuoi-nam-2024-d216845.html