What will the conflict hotspots look like after Trump is elected?

The 2024 US presidential election results, with the return of Donald Trump, are expected to impact two major conflicts between Israel and Ukraine. During his election campaign, Trump also expressed his views on these two conflicts.

In Israel

In Israel, the country’s right-wing leaders are excited about Donald Trump’s return, but some are concerned that the Biden administration will ramp up pressure in its final days in office.

Trump’s success has reverberated across the Arab world . While most of America’s allies in the region are pleased with the outcome, some observers fear that Trump’s return could lead Israel to escalate an already widespread conflict.

The Biden administration has made several efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East, but has yet to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas or an agreement to secure the release of hostages.

Israeli protesters block a road in Tel Aviv (Israel). (Photo: Getty)

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has also called for an end to the war in Gaza. But the president-elect has yet to share a specific plan for how he might help speed that up. He also said during the campaign that he would support what he described as Israel’s “right to win the war on terror.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu could seek to end Israel's offensive in Gaza early in Mr Trump's term, which would give Republicans a quick diplomatic victory.

"No one in Israel wants Kamala Harris to take office. No one trusts her here," said an Israeli official.

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics , said Prime Minister Netanyahu is one of Mr. Trump's close allies. Accordingly, Mr. Trump's victory would be more beneficial for the Israeli Prime Minister.

Professor Gerges fears that under Trump, Washington, already Israel's largest arms supplier, will "give Netanyahu whatever he wants, including the right to continue the war in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Iran." According to Brown University's Costs of War Project, US spending on Israel's military operations will total more than $17.9 billion between October 7, 2023 and September 30, 2024.

Despite those concerns, Mr. Gerges said that generally in the Arab world, “who wins the White House” is not important because “American foreign policy has historically been closely tied to Israel.”

For Ukraine

On the Ukraine issue, Mr. Trump said he could resolve the conflict before taking office. Many believe that a US-brokered peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would include concessions that Kiev has long declared “unacceptable.”

Expressing his views on the conflict, Mr. Trump publicly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was wrong to start the war. At the same time, Mr. Trump said he would refuse to provide more aid to Kiev.

Trump's victory is not a positive signal for Ukraine. (Photo: Getty)

Mr Trump's strategy could be to try to "appease" Russia, according to Maksym Kostetskyi, head of the Center for Policy Planning, a Kiev-based think tank.

“I am afraid that it will have negative effects on Ukrainian society,” he said, stressing that holding talks while Russia is attacking Ukraine is “absolutely unacceptable.”

However, Mr Zelensky publicly welcomed Trump's victory, saying he looked forward to "the era of a strong America under the decisive leadership of President Trump".

The US has approved $175 billion in aid to Ukraine, more than any other country, since Russia began its military campaign in February 2022. If Trump reverses this support, Ukraine’s defense capabilities will be severely affected. Accordingly, Kiev may also have to make concessions on many issues, including Russia’s annexation of many regions of Ukraine as well as a commitment not to join NATO.

Russian officials say Moscow is expecting changes in the US under Donald Trump.

But if Ukraine loses this conflict, the question will likely be: Will Mr Trump honor NATO’s core promise that if one member is attacked, the others are expected to come to NATO’s aid? During his first term, Mr Trump suggested he would not, undermining the entire purpose of the alliance.

In fact, for months, Ukraine has been criticizing US restrictions on the country.

“A Trump victory means big risks and big opportunities,” said Kostetskyi, of the Kiev-based think tank. “Only time will tell how things will turn out.”

Kong Anh (Source: NBC)

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/cac-diem-nong-xung-dot-se-ra-sao-sau-khi-ong-trump-dac-cu-ar908961.html