Key questions for German Chancellor's coalition government

More division than unity is sweeping through Germany's ruling coalition, which includes Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Greens, and Finance Minister Christian Lindner's pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

The budget crisis the coalition overcame late last year means there will be less money to settle differences this year. The key question is whether the coalition government can continue on its current trajectory until the end of its term.

Temporary boost

Discontent has been simmering within the FDP for months. As the smallest coalition partner in the current German federal government, the FDP has suffered one defeat after another in state and local elections in 2022 and 2023.

Local politicians blame the poor partnership in Berlin, with polls showing that only a fifth of citizens remain satisfied with the work of the “traffic light” coalition – the governing coalition’s traditional colors: the SPP’s reds, the FDP’s yellows, and the Greens’ blues.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz poses for a photo during a recording session of his New Year's address at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Dec. 29, 2023. Photo: AP/Toronto Star

Many in the FDP see only one way out: the party must leave the coalition government, which they see as blocking their path forward. A poll of party members, due to close on January 1, was supposed to pave the way for such a move. However, 52% of FDP members voted to stay in the coalition, according to results released on January 1.

The result is likely to have been a relief to the leaders at the headquarters of the three ruling parties. Although the vote is not legally binding, the FDP leadership cannot ignore it if the majority supports leaving the coalition.

If the result is that a majority of FDP members want to leave, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be forced to hold a confidence vote that he is likely to lose. It is clear that the ruling coalition will come under even more pressure between now and the federal election in 2025.

Christian Dürr, chairman of the FDP parliamentary group, welcomed the result of the internal vote, saying it “confirms that the FDP always carries out its responsibilities even in challenging times”.

However, he added that the FDP “must continue to work to move our country forward with liberal policies,” a statement that could be seen as a warning to the SPD and the Greens that the FDP still intends to push back on their agendas.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Photo: European Newsroom

In fact, the January 1 poll may only provide a temporary boost. That’s because 2024 is an election year, with European elections scheduled for June 6-9 and parliaments in the states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg up for re-election in September. Local elections are also scheduled for nine of Germany’s 16 states.

In Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is by far the strongest party, with only the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) able to keep pace. The SPD, Greens and FDP parties in the governing coalition are far behind, with approval ratings in the low single digits in some polls.

The three parties have also lost significant ground at the federal level since taking office in December 2021. While they initially held a majority with a combined 52% of the vote, their approval rating in opinion polls has now plummeted to 32%.

Breathtaking change

In his New Year’s Eve address to the nation, Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged that many people were unhappy. “I take that to heart,” he said. But the world had become “more chaotic and harsh” and was changing “at an almost breathtaking pace,” he added, and Germany had to change with it.

But is it really the changes that are causing people to struggle to adapt, or is it the way the coalition government is handling the multiple crises and their consequences?

Germany is facing an energy crisis exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine, soaring inflation and economic stagnation.

What is telling is that the German chancellor’s approval ratings continue to plummet in the polls, which is likely due in part to the 65-year-old’s notoriously unflattering communication style.

When the coalition is in discord – as it has been often in 2023 – Scholz prefers to stay out of the public eye, speaking only when he feels it is absolutely necessary. 2024 will probably be the most difficult year of the governing coalition’s tenure. On top of all the political and ideological differences, there is now a dispute over the budget.

The ferry carrying German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck was blocked by farmers on January 4, 2024. Photo: T-Online

The coalition is a coalition of an economically liberal party and two left-wing parties. The SPD and the Greens are committed to building a strong state and want more money for social welfare and climate protection. The FDP, meanwhile, takes the opposite view, emphasizing personal responsibility and a smaller state.

To resolve these conflicts, Mr Scholz, who will remain finance minister in Angela Merkel’s government in 2021, came up with a clever trick: He proposed that the unused €60 billion in credits that parliament had approved in 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic be transferred to a special fund managed by his government.

The proposed budget provides enough funding for the political plans of the SPD and the Greens, while allowing FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner to draw up a regular federal budget without taking on any new debt.

The plan was only effective for less than two years. Then, in November 2023, the German Federal Constitutional Court blew the whistle, determining that the reuse of the fund was unconstitutional. As a result of this ruling, the coalition government’s budget was “torn” and further borrowing was strictly limited by the “debt brake” measure stipulated in the German Constitution, introduced in 2009.

The coalition government will now have to save money for the remainder of its term in power, but it will not have at least some breathing room. The dispute over money is likely to cause further rifts in the “traffic light” coalition in the coming months.

Fear of separation

At a recent SPD conference, Mr Scholz said Germany might have to provide more aid to Ukraine “if other countries weaken” – an apparent reference to the political situation in the US ahead of the 2024 presidential election. So, he said, decisions need to be made on the German side to ensure “that Germany has the capacity to do so”.

More division than unity has swept through Germany's ruling coalition since it took office in December 2021. Photo: Getty Images

The German chancellor was apparently referring to the “debt brake,” which would force the federal and state governments to balance their books. Mr Scholz managed to convince Finance Minister Lindner that they would at least discuss suspending the debt brake again this year, if it was deemed that military and financial support for Ukraine needed to be increased.

But that doesn't mean the FDP will agree. An internal FDP poll shows that 48% of its members want to leave the coalition, and that number could easily rise over time.

Party leaders fear division more than anything else. In the event of new elections, they fear not only losing power but also that many lawmakers would have to give up their seats in the Bundestag.

That is why at the official level and in the factions in the German parliament, everyone is trying to maintain the coalition. The fear of political obsolescence is probably the only thing that will hold the coalition partners together in 2024 .

Minh Duc (According to DW, Politico EU)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/cau-hoi-quan-trong-doi-voi-chinh-phu-lien-minh-cua-thu-tuong-duc-a644333.html