Russia could launch a massive attack on Kiev with a variety of long-range weapons from multiple directions, forcing the Patriot system to fire and expose its position to the Kinzhal missile.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on May 16 that its military "launched a coordinated strike with long-range precision weapons against Ukrainian units, as well as ammunition depots, weapons and military equipment supplied by the West", in which "the Kinzhal hypersonic glide vehicle hit the US-made Patriot air defense missile system in Kiev".
CNN later quoted an unnamed US official as saying that Washington was assessing the extent of damage to the Patriot system to decide whether Ukrainian forces could repair the system on the ground or need to send it abroad for repair.
The Ukrainian military admitted that the attack was "unusually intense", with "the maximum number of missiles launched in the shortest possible time" targeting Kiev. Military analysts said that this is a new Russian attack tactic to detect and neutralize the Patriot system worth more than 1.1 billion USD that Ukraine is deploying in Kiev.
Russian warship launches Kalibr missile from the Black Sea at target in Ukraine in March 2022. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense
A US official said Russia recently launched a wide-ranging attack on Ukraine, with targets spread out, in an attempt to prevent Kiev from launching a large-scale counterattack. But Ukraine’s multi-layered air defense systems in many provinces have proven effective, intercepting most of the Russian missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
This spread-out attack "benefits Ukraine by making Russia increasingly run out of precision weapons," while being unable to deal with modern air defense systems that the West provides to Kiev, according to US officials.
Therefore, in the early morning raid on May 16, the Russian air force seemed to have changed its tactics, concentrating an unusually large number of missiles, with many different types, to overload and confuse the Ukrainian air defense network, creating conditions for the Kinzhal missile to launch a decisive attack.
The Ukrainian military said that in the raid, Russia launched a total of 18 missiles in less than an hour, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and many suicide and reconnaissance UAVs flying from the north, south and east, aiming at key targets in Kiev.
The Ukrainian capital is protected by at least two Patriot batteries, one supplied by the US and one transferred by Germany. The Patriot is capable of detecting multiple incoming targets at once and is the only Ukrainian air defense system capable of countering hypersonic weapons.
Hypersonic missiles are weapons with a minimum speed of five times that of sound (Mach 5), equivalent to more than 6,200 km/h. The Kinzhal missile weighs 5 tons, has a range of 1,800 km, and a maximum speed of up to Mach 12.5, exceeding the interception capabilities of other air defense systems in service with the Ukrainian military.
Patriot can detect Kinzhal missiles launched from MiG-31K fighters from a long distance thanks to its powerful radar system. However, this radar also emits signals that Russia can receive and trace back to the location of the Patriot complex in Kiev.
Unlike highly mobile short-range air defense systems, Patriots are bulky, have many components, and are difficult to move after firing, making them vulnerable to Russian targeting if exposed.
Kiev officials have warned residents for weeks not to post online images of Patriot systems deployed near their homes, as Russian experts could use them to locate the air defense complex.
The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have successfully intercepted Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missile on the night of May 4 by firing multiple Patriot missiles, each costing $4 million, from different angles to ensure the target was neutralized.
General Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, said the massive missile attack on the capital Kiev on May 16 was carried out to overload Ukraine's air defense systems by having to continuously fire in response.
When the Patriot and short-range systems of Ukraine have almost exhausted their ammunition, the hypersonic Kinzhal missile will perform the most important task of rushing into the most expensive air defense position in Kiev.
A source told Russia's RIA Novosti news agency that a MiG-31K fighter carrying a Kinzhal missile "ambushed" the Patriot complex. "When ambushed like that, due to the Kinzhal's extremely high speed, the US air defense system was completely caught off guard and could do nothing to protect itself," the source said.
Video shared on Telegram yesterday shows a suspected Ukrainian Patriot air defense system firing 30 missiles in a two-minute period. The missiles flew in different directions, apparently to counter the Kinzhal and incoming ballistic and cruise missiles.
Minutes later, when the Patriot system stopped firing, a large flash of light erupted at the site, most likely the moment the missile complex was attacked.
Ukrainian air defense system opened fire in the early morning of May 16. Video: Telegram/Milinfolive
“In order to conduct more effective air strikes in the future, Russia must neutralize Ukraine’s air defenses,” said Justin Crump, a military analyst at London-based intelligence consultancy Sibylline. “Russia must deploy its limited number of modern missiles to achieve this goal.”
Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also assessed Russia's attack as "complex, sophisticated with many types of missiles with different trajectories".
"Ballistic missiles come from one direction, cruise missiles and drones approach from other directions," Karako said, adding that the tactic was not aimed at disrupting Ukraine's air defense system, but at the Patriot, the highest-value target in that system.
"When Russia fires the Kinzhal missile, they don't do it just for the sake of making a splash," he said.
Crump said the extent of the damage to the Patriot system was not yet clear, but "this is not the end of Ukraine's air defense system." However, experts also said that this attack could prompt the West to transfer more modern air defense systems to Ukraine.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov also said that Russia has stopped attacking infrastructure and has switched to destroying Ukraine's air defense systems. He called on the West to transfer "40 Patriot systems, 40 IRIS-T systems and 40 NASAMS systems" to Ukraine to strengthen its air defense capabilities.
The situation on the Russia - Ukraine battlefield. Graphics: WP
Nguyen Tien (According to CNN, WP )
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