Sky Sports journalist Lewis Jones believes Tottenham will crush Chelsea in the London derby of round 11 of the Premier League.
Tottenham - Chelsea : 3am Tuesday, November 7, Hanoi time.
I'm leaning towards Tottenham in the London derby, and am fairly confident at 10/11. Chelsea have been praised by some for their recent performances, but while their midfield three have been impressive, Mauricio Pochettino's side have struggled to convert their chances into goals.
Son Heung-min has scored eight goals in the Premier League this season. Photo: Reuters
The data shows that Chelsea have yet to convert expected goals (xG) into goals. They have only scored 19 goals in 2023, missing 57 chances. Chelsea's goal conversion rate is just 7.08%, the lowest in the Premier League. That includes matches against defensively weak teams like Luton, Everton and Sheffield United. Chelsea have also failed to score in 14 Premier League games this year, the most of any team in the competition.
Tottenham fans are probably looking forward to this game, as they are living in the clouds as the team has enjoyed its best start to a season since 1960-1961. Ange Postecoglou continues to break new records and is aiming to become only the third manager in history to go 11 Premier League games unbeaten. In the 21st century, only former Chelsea boss Maurizio Sarri has achieved this.
Despite being in better form and being rated higher, Tottenham should not be underestimated. They have had a difficult time against Chelsea in the past. In the last nine meetings, Tottenham have won just one, drawn two and lost six. Last season, Tottenham beat Chelsea 2-0 at home, and they will have the chance to beat their city rivals twice in a row for the first time since 2018. I believe in a victory for Postecoglou's team, even thinking that they will win by a big score of 3-0 without conceding a goal.
Fulham - Man Utd : 7:30 p.m. Saturday 4/11
The trip to Fulham is a chance for United and Erik ten Hag to salvage their current crisis. However, those hoping for a big win for the Red Devils to turn things around may be disappointed. Of the 32 Premier League games that have been played early on a Saturday, 23 have produced fewer than 2.5 goals. That's 72%, and with United's current form, the chances of the game having at most two goals are very high.
The statistics show that Man Utd have the fewest goals from strikers in the league (just one). Therefore, facing a team that has conceded 16 goals since the start of the season will be an opportunity for Rasmus Hojlund or Marcus Rashford to relieve the pressure. Despite doubts about Man Utd continuing to collapse after two heavy defeats, the odds of 10/11 for them to win this match are very attractive.
Man Utd have a near-perfect record away from home against teams that finished in the bottom 11 last season, or were predicted to be in that group this year. Since the start of last season, Ten Hag's men have taken 34 points from a possible 39 against these opponents and conceded just six goals in 13 games.
Ten Hag has shown he can get Man Utd an 'ugly win' when needed. Ten of the 13 games mentioned above have had under 2.5 goals. If you bet on that match, the odds are 11-10. If you add a Man Utd win, the odds are 1-4. Last season, the odds were 46%. Fulham have the third worst attack in the Premier League and are undergoing a rebuilding phase following the departure of Aleksandar Mitrovic. Only Sheffield United have created fewer chances than them. Therefore, I believe the match will end 1-0 in favour of Man Utd.
Brentford - West Ham : 10pm Saturday 4/11
In those four games, West Ham have averaged just 0.85 xG per game, and that figure drops to 0.26 per game when they visit the Gtech Community. David Moyes is known for his conservative approach to new tactics, so I don’t expect West Ham to be any different this time around against Brentford.
The form of both teams seems to support that. While West Ham have suffered back-to-back defeats to Aston Villa and Everton, Brentford are on fire after beating Burnley and Chelsea. Frank’s side have kept clean sheets in both of those games and are on course for their first three consecutive Premier League wins since the end of the 2022-23 season. West Ham will also be among the teams they have beaten then. So I’m tipping the game to end 2-0 in favour of the hosts.
Man City - Bournemouth : 10pm Saturday, November 4
Man City have won their last 21 home games in all competitions by an aggregate score of 67-10. They have also won all 12 Premier League games against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 38-7. This is the most dominant statistic ever recorded by a team against another opponent in the top flight of English football.
Haaland has the chance to improve his scoring record when Man City host Bournemouth this weekend. Photo: Reuters
Bournemouth picked up their first Premier League win of the season last time out, beating Burnley 2-1. They then lost 2-1 to Liverpool in the fourth round of the League Cup. Bournemouth have won just four of their 15 away games in 2023 and are unlikely to improve on that in this round.
Those statistics show that the belief in victory for Pep Guardiola's team seems absolute. But not many people are interested in the odds of 12 to 1 for this bet. Therefore, I pay more attention to the number of goals Man City can score against Bournemouth.
The 3-0 win over Man Utd last round shows that Man City are in the form to be able to create big wins with more than three goals scored. Therefore, the odds of 6:5 for them to score more than 3.5 goals in this match are worth considering for me. I believe Man City can win this match 4-1.
Newcastle - Arsenal : 0:30 Sunday 5/11
The two previous meetings between the two teams were tense, promising a fierce contest ahead. There were 54 fouls and 12 yellow cards in those two games. It’s not easy to predict the score of this match, so I paid more attention to the number of fouls committed by the players of both teams.
Recent matches between Arsenal and Newcastle have often been fierce. Photo: Reuters
The bookies are offering 11-4 odds on at least 27 fouls. That’s a tempting proposition in my opinion. Dan Burn, in particular, will certainly struggle to cope with Bukayo Saka on Newcastle’s left flank, increasing the chance of fouls. Burn has been dribbled past 16 times this season, only Pedro Porro has been dribbled past more.
Burn was exposed in the last game when he picked up four fouls against Wolves. The 31-year-old defender has a style of play that is not afraid of contact and sometimes too aggressive, which often gets him into trouble. I’m betting 4-1 on Burn committing four fouls again this time around, as he has to stop Saka.
Newcastle will come into this game in high spirits after beating Man Utd 3-0 in the League Cup. Arsenal, on the other hand, were beaten 3-1 by West Ham. The Gunners are one of only two teams yet to lose this season, alongside leaders Tottenham, and are in a serious race for the top of the table. But Newcastle have won their last three home games without conceding, suggesting their defence has returned to the form of last season. A 1-1 draw seems like a fair result to me for this game.
Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa : 9pm Sunday 5/11
Forest have lost just two of their last 19 Premier League home games, a statistic that could give them a leg up this time around. However, whether Steve Cooper's men can maintain that form is a question mark when they face an in-form Aston Villa.
Villa have picked up 65 points from 32 Premier League games in 2023, only Man City have won more. They are widely tipped to win away from home at odds of 5-4, but it is worth noting that Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all failed to leave the City Ground with three points.
Taiwo Awoniyi's return will be a huge boost for Cooper's side. The striker has scored nine goals and provided three assists in his last 14 games. Nottingham Forest's win rate has increased from 25% to 55% when Awoniyi has started home games, so he could make the difference in this tie. I predict a 1-1 draw and Villa's attack will struggle despite scoring 11 goals in their last three games in all competitions.
Luton Town - Liverpool : 23:30 Sunday, November 5
Keep faith in Luton’s corner-scoring ability. Manager Rob Edwards knows his team must find a way to get the ball quickly into the opposition box to find corners and free-kicks from the flanks. Luton won a high number of corners at Kenilworth Road, averaging 7.4 per game last season in the Championship, second only to West Brom.
The move to the Premier League has not affected Luton's corner performance. They have won 31 corners in four games against Wolves, West Ham, Burnley and Tottenham. In three of those four games, Luton have won at least seven corners. So the 11-10 odds on them winning four corners in this match look attractive. If you're feeling a little more adventurous, you could consider 9-4 for five corners or 9-2 for six.
Liverpool have won their last four games and are unbeaten in their last six in all competitions. But it's fair to say Jurgen Klopp's men haven't found their best form yet, as evidenced by the number of corners they've conceded. In their last seven games, Liverpool's opponents have conceded 45 corners, or 6.4 per game. That makes me more confident that Luton will score from a corner. But overall, this was a dominant performance by the visitors and I think they can win 3-1.
Vinh San (according to Sky Sports )
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