Experts reveal why tra fish prices may stay high until the end of the year

The price of commercial pangasius fish has increased to 31,500-33,500 VND/kg, the highest in the past 3 years and is forecast to remain at this level from now until the end of the year.

Dr. Duong Nghia Quoc - Chairman of the Vietnam Pangasius Association had an interview with reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.

For each kilogram of tra fish, farmers earn a profit of 5,000 - 6,000 VND.

- Pangasius price increased sharply, what is the reason, sir?

Mr. Duong Nghia Quoc: The reason is that for a long period of last year, the selling price of pangasius was too low, even lower than the cost price, so many businesses suffered losses. Therefore, businesses and farmers also reduced the quantity of fish raised. The scarcity of supply is the factor that pushed the price of pangasius up sharply.

As of mid-February 2025, total pangasius export turnover reached 208 million USD, up 5% over the same period last year.

Another reason that needs to be mentioned is climate change, weather changes leading to disease outbreaks in breeding areas. The price of fingerlings has also increased, about 50,000 VND/kg (30-40 fish), while previously, this price was only about 25,000 VND/kg.

No business or household can afford this price. Especially for households that raise using traditional methods, the risk of facing losses is very high. Therefore, they do not reproduce. Therefore, only a few businesses with strong capital and following the chain can survive.

Another problem is the quality of the fish fry, which is getting worse and worse. The 3-level pangasius breeding program is currently almost “on hold”, with the loss rate of fish fry reaching 40-50%. If the fish fry are invested well, this will reduce costs, reduce prices and improve the competitiveness of the pangasius industry.

- With the current price, are catfish farmers profitable, sir?

Mr. Duong Nghia Quoc: Short supply, increased demand, increased prices, pushing the price of pangasius (fish meat) to 33,000 VND/kg. It can be said that in the past few years, we have never had such a good price as now.

For experienced farmers who have invested in a good system of conditions to handle disease problems, the current farming cost is around 27,000 - 28,000 VND/kg. With the current selling price, pangasius farmers earn a profit of 5,000 - 6,000 VND/kg, which is a very ideal profit.

Dr. Duong Nghia Quoc - Chairman of Vietnam Pangasius Association. Photo: Nguyen Hanh

However, currently, there are not many households raising pangasius, mainly businesses raise it themselves and some contract with large households. Because currently, the cost to raise a 400-ton fish pond, the cost of raising 27,000 VND/kg, the initial investment is up to 10 billion VND. While the investment is usually from 5-7 ponds, the cost is up to hundreds of billions of VND, it is very difficult for farmers to have money to invest.

Pangasius fish export forecast to reach 2.4 billion USD

- Sir, the problem is that the price of pangasius fish is increasing, but farmers do not have products and vice versa. Is it because our market information is still weak and lacking?

Mr. Duong Nghia Quoc: I think that currently, our pangasius industry chain is weak in many ways. Currently, in this industry chain, there are many stages, if just one stage is congested, it will lead to stagnant output. The more households raise, the more they lose, leading to competition for sales and price reduction.

Talking about market information, this is extremely important, but currently, Vietnamese exporters do not export directly but only through intermediaries. Therefore, although they do not produce, they enjoy more profit than food processors and farmers.

Sometimes, export market information is also "hidden" by importers themselves to find ways to force down prices if exporters do not grasp it in time.

If we have official and accurate information, it will help the production problem better. Therefore, the provision of market information, the role of commercial counselors is very important.

Exporting enterprises also need to promote cooperation and association to reach agreement on export prices and avoid competition in buying and selling. Only then can we create conditions for stable production development.

- Returning to the story of pangasius prices, can we maintain the current high level? At the same time, what is your assessment of pangasius export turnover for 2025?

Mr. Duong Nghia Quoc: Previously, we would have to raise tra fish for about 6 months to harvest 700-800 gram commercial fish. But now, due to changes in weather, climate, and diseases, if we want to release tra fish, we have to raise them for 8 months to have 800-900 gram commercial fish.

If the world market outlook does not fluctuate greatly due to fish sources of other countries, the Vietnamese pangasius industry will have a good harvest and good prices.

There were years when tra fish exports reached 2.4 billion USD. With the current selling price, if we have stable production, achieving this figure is not difficult.

In fact, we do not throw away anything from the pangasius. Pangasius fat is exported to China or processed into cooking oil, pangasius skin is used to produce collagen, and pangasius bones are processed into fish meal and exported to the Chinese market. The export turnover of these products reaches 30-40% of the total export turnover and can reach billions of USD, but we have not included these numbers. Therefore, if we add up the entire pangasius industry, we can earn 3-4 billion USD in export.

Exporting enterprises also proposed to include the number of exported tra fish by-products in the total export turnover of the whole industry so that the government can have policies to support the deep processing industry, enhancing the value chain for the whole industry.

Thank you!

According to Vietnam Customs, as of mid-February 2025, total pangasius export turnover reached 208 million USD, up 5% over the same period last year. Markets such as China and Hong Kong (China), CPTPP, the US, EU and Brazil continue to play an important role in the consumption of Vietnamese pangasius.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/chuyen-gia-he-lo-ly-do-gia-ca-tra-co-the-o-muc-cao-den-cuoi-nam-377708.html