Trying to regain upward momentum.

Việt Nam•20/04/2025

Today's USD exchange rate (April 21): Early morning on April 21, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at: 24,898 VND.

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the fluctuations of the US dollar against six major currencies, stands at 99.23.

Predicting the trend of the USD this week.

The DXY index is struggling to rise back above the psychological 100 mark. This has been clearly demonstrated by price movements throughout the past week. This also makes it likely that the US dollar will continue to decline in the coming days.

Chart showing the fluctuations of the DXY index over the past week. Image: Marketwatch

Investors are currently showing considerable caution amid concerns about the impact of trade tariffs from the administration of US President Donald Trump on the country's economy . The rapid changes in tariff announcements have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, reducing the attractiveness of the US dollar.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are anticipating a total Fed rate cut of 86 basis points by the end of 2025, with the first move projected to occur in July, putting downward pressure on the USD, despite Powell's more cautious stance.

US Treasury yields also fell last week. Overall, the short-term outlook remains bleak for the DXY index.

The DXY index remains pessimistic. The range between 100 and 100.50 is acting as strong resistance and limiting the dollar's upward momentum. This maintains the initial bearish outlook. The index could fall to 98.50. A break below 98.50 could trigger a decline to 96 in the medium term.

This index needs to break above 100.50 to alleviate downward pressure. This would trigger a corrective rally to the 102-102.50 region. However, the downtrend would likely continue. To reverse the trend, the DXY index would need to surpass 102.50. But that scenario seems unlikely at this time.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell last week, contrary to economists' expectations of an increase. The immediate outlook is mixed. Support is at 4.2% and resistance is at 4.4%. A breakout on either side of the 4.2% and 4.4% marks will determine the next move in yields.

A break below 4.2% could drag yields down to the 4.1-4.0% range. On the other hand, a rise above 4.4% would signal an upward trend, potentially pushing yields straight up to the initial 4.7% and then to 4.85%.

Over the past week, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been struggling to hold above 1.1250. The EUR may initially rise to 1.16. Breaking above 1.16 would fuel further upside potential and push the currency towards 1.20 in the coming months.

Conversely, a drop to 1.1150 would only occur if the EUR fell below the support level at 1.1250.

USD exchange rate today, April 21st: The US dollar needs to break above 100 to regain upward momentum. Photo: Reuters.

Domestic USD exchange rate today

On the domestic market, at the beginning of trading on April 21, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the US Dollar at 24,898 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange floor increased slightly for buying and selling, currently at: 23,704 VND - 26,092 VND.

The USD exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

USD exchange rate	Buy	Sell
Vietcombank	25,730 VND	26,120 VND
Vietinbank	25,620 VND	26,130 VND
MB	25,760 VND	26,120 VND

* The EUR exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk has slightly increased, currently standing at: 26,905 VND - 29,738 VND (buying rate - selling rate).

The EUR exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

EUR exchange rate	Buy	Sell
Vietcombank	28,736 VND	30,310 VND
Vietinbank	28,670 VND	30,380 VND
MB	29,038 VND	30,301 VND

* The Japanese Yen exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk increased slightly, currently standing at 166 VND - 184 VND (buying rate - selling rate).