Simultaneous increase of 1.5 times in more than a month

In the trading session on August 7, TPB shares of Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank ( TPBank ) increased to the ceiling price, adding 1,250 VND to 19,450 VND/share, with a buy surplus of more than 2.1 million units. In total, nearly 73.7 million TPB shares were transferred, of which foreign investors bought more than 9 million units and sold nearly 3 million units.

VPB shares of Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank ( VPBank ) also increased to the maximum allowed range, adding 1,850 VND to 28,950 VND/share. During the session, nearly 62.6 million VPB shares were transferred. Foreign investors bought nearly 19.7 million units, while selling nearly 4 million units.

Most other bank stocks also increased in price and recorded active trading.

Since the beginning of July, TPBank has increased by more than 45%, VPBank by more than 57%, andSHB by more than 47% from VND12,800 to VND18,850/share. An increase of more than 45%, even exceeding 57% in just over a month, is a rare development for banking stocks in the past 20 years on the stock market.

In the past, bank stocks were considered the “king stocks” group, attracting the attention of investors from organizations to individuals. This group of pillar stocks often did not fluctuate strongly, skyrocketing or falling sharply like real estate, securities, retail consumption or construction materials.

The sharp increase in price by one and a half times in just over a month, with many new records since the beginning of the second quarter until now, took place in a rather special context and it may be a long time before there is such a good supportive environment for the banking stock group.

This is considered the main driving force that has pushed the VN-Index to consecutive historical peaks after conquering the 1,500-point threshold.

tienUSD HH0k2.jpg
Banking stocks surge but face some risks, including exchange rates. Photo: HH

In the trading session on August 7, VN-Index increased by 8.1 points (+0.51%) to 1,581.81 points - the highest level in the past 25 years. Liquidity continued to be very high, reaching 1.5-3 billion USD in recent sessions, with banking stocks recording unprecedented high turnover.

Besides TPBank with more than 73.6 million units transferred, VPBank with nearly 62.6 million units, SHB also recorded nearly 92.4 million shares transferred. Techcombank (TCB) more than 30 million shares transferred, HDBank (HDB) more than 24.7 million units, MBBank (MBB) nearly 27 million units, ACB more than 19 million units, VIB nearly 18.7 million units...

It can be seen that the banking stock group has become the focus leading the stock market. The capitalization of this group reached 2.6 million billion VND, accounting for nearly 40% of the total market capitalization. The group of private banking stocks increased significantly compared to the group of state-owned banks.

Is the outlook bright?

Banking stocks have risen sharply as they benefit from the government’s policies to boost economic growth. The government is pumping money heavily through monetary and fiscal policies to ensure economic growth of over 8%. Good business results and the banks’ own efforts to expand their scale have also helped stocks rise sharply.

According to SSI Securities, banking, along with retail, fertilizer, utilities and industrial zones, was the group with results exceeding expectations in the second quarter. Banking continued to be the main growth driver, contributing 44% of total after-tax profit attributable to parent company shareholders and contributing 28% to this growth.

In addition, this is also a group of stocks that are held by many professional investors and are promoted by securities companies for margin lending. A very important cash flow comes from securities companies and many of them are backed by banks.

It is estimated that the total outstanding securities loans of the top 40 securities companies by the end of the second quarter reached a record high of VND285 trillion.

On August 6, the Prime Minister issued a telegram requesting the State Bank to pilot the removal of credit growth targets from 2026, in coordination with fiscal and other macroeconomic policies, contributing to promoting growth... This is considered a positive signal for securities in general and the banking group in particular, especially the private banking group.

In a report earlier this year, VinaCapital said the banking sector would benefit the most as Vietnam pushes for domestic growth. The organization expects listed banks’ profits to increase by 17% by 2025.

In addition to economic growth policies, banks also benefit from improved asset quality through strong digitalization efforts and the application of artificial intelligence (AI), to optimize costs and increase revenue from non-interest services such as fees and insurance linkages.

With the possibility that the Vietnamese stock market could be upgraded in September, investors also expect foreign capital to flow into banking stocks. Recently, foreign investors have been buying this group of stocks very strongly, such as HDBank, SHB...

On the other hand, the banking group also faces risks from the uneven recovery of the real estate market, competition for marginal interest rates, as well as potential bad debts at some medium-sized banks. In addition, global trade tensions, such as tariff risks, can affect the economy in general, thereby affecting the banking group.

Banking stocks may also be under pressure as State Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong, in a regular Government meeting on August 7, mentioned the challenge of sharp increases in exchange rates and will consider not continuing to reduce interest rates if exchange rates are tense.

In addition, the Governor noted: Inflationary pressure is on the rise. Factors such as adjustments to electricity prices, healthcare service prices, housing rents, etc. are creating pressure on input costs and pushing core inflation up continuously in recent months. Core inflation - which reflects the long-term impact of monetary policy - is an important indicator that the executive agency cannot be subjective about.

"Inflation appears very quickly, but it is very difficult to control and reduce it. This is the reason why it is necessary to operate policies proactively, closely following developments and cautiously," the head of the banking industry emphasized.

Record stock trading of several billion USD/session: Securities Commission issues warning The State Securities Commission issued a warning amid an unprecedentedly vibrant stock market with billions of USD worth of stocks transferred each session.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/bank-stocks-increase-by-1-5-years-in-the-month-2429873.html