Consumer - retail stocks face opportunities from economic growth

(Dan Tri) - The socio-economic report for the first 7 months of 2025 shows many positive macro indicators, reinforcing expectations of consumption recovery and creating growth momentum for businesses in the consumer - retail sector.

According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office, the total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue at current prices in July is estimated at VND576,400 billion, up 1.1% over the previous month and up 9.2% over the same period last year. In the first 7 months of 2025, the total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue at current prices is estimated at nearly VND4 million billion, up 9.3% over the same period last year.

In addition, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 8.6%; newly registered and additional FDI reached 24.09 billion USD, up 27.3%, while realized FDI reached 13.6 billion USD, up 8.4%. Tourism continued to recover strongly with more than 12.2 million international arrivals, up 22.5% over the same period, leading to an increase in demand for consumption, accommodation and services.

WinMart attracts a large number of customers with a discount program on essential goods on the occasion of its opening (Photo: Masan ).

Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in July from 48.9 in June, marking the first time it has crossed the 50 threshold after four months of contraction. This was the sharpest improvement in nearly a year, reflecting an increase in new orders, especially from the domestic market.

Although export orders remained affected by tariffs, manufacturing output continued to increase for the third consecutive month, recording the strongest increase in 11 months.

In this favorable macro context, Masan Group (MSN) with its integrated consumer-retail ecosystem also directly benefits from the recovery of domestic purchasing power and international investment flows. Amidst the support from the macroeconomic foundation and the shift in investment flows, MSN shares are expected to reflect positive business prospects to become an attractive choice in the consumer-retail stock group.

Promoting the modernization of Vietnam's retail market

Newly released business results show that the WinCommerce retail chain continues to make an important contribution to Masan's overall growth in the first half of 2025. The implementation of new supermarket and store models, especially rapid expansion in rural areas, has helped WinCommerce (WCM) improve both revenue and profit.

On average, about 2 new stores are opened every day, bringing the total number of points of sale nationwide to over 4,000. Of these, nearly 3/4 of the new stores are concentrated in rural areas, which account for more than 60% of the country's population.

Customers shop at WinCommerce supermarket system (Photo: Masan).

According to the July report, WCM achieved net revenue of VND3,486 billion, up 23% over the same period in 2024, higher than the base growth target of 8-12% set for the whole year. In the first 7 months, total revenue reached VND21,400 billion, up 14.8% over the same period.

In July, WCM opened 36 new stores, bringing the total number of new stores opened since the beginning of the year to 354, equivalent to more than 50% of the yearly plan (400-700 stores). About 75% of these are WinMart+ stores in rural areas. The Central region alone recorded 175 stores, accounting for nearly 50% of the total new openings.

WCM’s long-term plan is to have a WinMart supermarket in every district, a mini-supermarket in every commune/ward, and a WiN+ point of sale in every village and residential group. However, rapid expansion and competitive pressure in the market are still factors that can affect profit margins.

Analysts' reviews

Many securities companies maintain a positive view on MSN shares. KBSV values ​​the stock at VND100,000/share based on the SoTP method, based on the double-digit growth prospects of Masan Consumer, WinCommerce and Masan MEATLife. VCBS recommends buying with a target price of VND93,208/share.

Consumers shop for Masan Consumer products (Photo: Masan).

According to the report, the main drivers come from WCM, which is expected to open more than 600 stores this year, MCH, which is expanding its premium product portfolio and export markets, MML, which is benefiting from high pork prices, and Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT), which is expected to improve its profit margins thanks to the recovery in international commodity prices. VCI also highlighted MSN as a leading consumer-retail stock, with a target price of VND101,000/share.

However, analysts also noted risks to watch, including uneven recovery in domestic consumption, geopolitical factors, supply chain disruptions and increased competitive pressure in modern retail and FMCG.

As of the second quarter, Masan recorded a Pre-MI after-tax profit of VND2,602 billion, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year, equivalent to about 50% of the annual profit plan (VND4,875-6,500 billion). This shows that the company is maintaining a stable growth rate in many areas of operation.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/co-phieu-tieu-dung-ban-le-truoc-co-hoi-tu-tang-truong-kinh-te-20250820151429157.htm