Shrimp, the main livestock in the Mekong Delta, including Soc Trang, how long will the "big waves and strong winds" last?

This, combined with the impacts from weather, rising shipping rates, and increasingly fierce price competition with cheap shrimp from other countries, has led most forecasts to agree that the shrimp industry's troubles could last until the end of 2024.

In response to the above assessment, recently, businesses have been very active in searching, contacting, and exchanging with customers to maintain and expand consumption channels from international seafood fairs to direct meetings.

However, according to businesses, the immediate situation is still very difficult, shrimp prices are still low so businesses are forced to reduce raw shrimp purchasing prices, causing shrimp prices to drop sharply recently.

Difficulties are something that all stakeholders in the shrimp industry have felt, but whether there are still any opportunities for the shrimp industry this year is what stakeholders are most concerned about right now, especially shrimp farmers.

According to businesses, according to market rules, opportunities for the shrimp industry often start to brighten from the third quarter onwards, because this is the period when importers increase purchases to prepare supplies for the holidays and Tet at the end of the year.

Therefore, shrimp prices from the third quarter onwards are likely to improve compared to the present, but are unlikely to increase sharply, although currently, most businesses have contracts for delivery from the third quarter to the end of the year, mainly because world shrimp prices are still low, and price competition between major shrimp producing countries such as Ecuador, India, Vietnam and Indonesia has not only not decreased but has also become more intense.

With the current domestic shrimp price being very low, most businesses only dare to sign export contracts for small quantities and fast delivery times to avoid risks arising because domestic supply is quite limited.

The storm in the shrimp industry is forecast to last until the end of 2024, but shrimp farmers and shrimp enterprises in the Mekong Delta provinces, including Soc Trang province, still have hope and wait for better developments to come after the third quarter. Photo: TICH CHU.

The sharp drop in shrimp prices, almost hitting rock bottom, not only worries shrimp farmers but also makes exporting enterprises extremely worried, because once farmers cannot see the expected profit from the selling price, they will reduce the farming area, or even stop farming to wait for the price.

This is also a potential risk that businesses have recognized early on, so they have not dared to sign large-volume contracts with long delivery times. It is also the fact that sea freight rates have increased quite sharply recently and it is unknown whether they will increase further in the near future, when political conflicts around the world have not shown signs of cooling down.

If a large quantity is signed and there are no shrimps at the time of delivery, businesses will compete to buy and push up the price, and businesses will surely suffer losses.

In fact, from the beginning of May until now, the number of new farming areas in the Mekong Delta is not much, even the model of farming with tarpaulin lining and high-tech farming does not dare to farm the entire area but only stock in moderation to listen to the market, although the farming situation is developing quite favorably.

After the two largest international seafood fairs of the year (taking place in March and April), most businesses assessed that the situation from now until the end of the year is still difficult, so even though exports in the first 5 months have reached 2.3 billion USD, it still does not allow them to be optimistic.

Mr. Dang Ngoc Son - General Director of Camimex Company (Ca Mau) said that it is almost the end of June, but the market has not shown any signs of improvement. Therefore, no business has dared to increase the price of raw shrimp, but most are still waiting to see the market before making a decision.

Despite the difficulties, with the great advantage in processing and raising large-sized whiteleg shrimp, the shrimp industry is still capable of maintaining the high-end market segment in some major markets, such as: Japan, EU, USA...

According to the information the author has, the possibility that shrimp prices will improve from the third quarter is quite high, although the level of improvement in general has not yet met the expectations of farmers.

Therefore, farmers need to consider and choose the appropriate farming model and density to ensure a high success rate to reduce production costs, and harvest large shrimp with more stable prices, helping to increase profits of the farming season.

On the other hand, there are many things that are expected and expected to bring a new wind to the economy in general and the seafood industry in particular from the third quarter to the end of 2024.

That is the final conclusion on anti-subsidy tax on shrimp in the US market expected in August or September; the 5th inspection scheduled in October by the European inspection team (EC) regarding the IUU yellow card and the expectation of an early recovery of the world economy and a stronger reduction in inflation.

If all the above expectations and waiting take place according to a scenario that is beneficial to the seafood industry in general and shrimp in particular, everything will change in a better direction for the shrimp industry's goal of reaching the finish line in 2024.

Source: https://danviet.vn/con-tom-vat-nuoi-chu-luc-o-dbscl-trong-do-co-soc-trang-song-to-gio-lon-keo-dai-toi-khi-nao-20240629224843589.htm