To achieve the 2025 growth target of 8.3-8.5%:

This is a significant challenge that requires great efforts from all levels and sectors, especially increasing the efficiency of traditional driving forces while promoting and unlocking new growth drivers.

Transporting export goods at Hai Phong Port.

GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 must increase by 8.4-10.2%

Data from the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) shows that GDP in the first 9 months of 2025 is estimated to increase by 7.85% over the same period last year. This growth momentum is firmly maintained thanks to the strong and synchronous recovery in many key areas. The industrial and construction sectors have become locomotives, making important contributions to the overall growth of the entire economy. In addition, tourism activities have flourished; monetary and fiscal policies continue to be maintained at a supportive level.

Regarding the economic situation in the first 10 months of 2025, the macro economy continues to be stable; inflation is controlled; growth maintains positive momentum. Total import-export turnover in the first 10 months reached over 762.4 billion USD, up 17.4%. Of which, exports reached 391 billion USD, up 16.2%; imports reached 371.4 billion USD, up 18.6%. The trade balance has a surplus of nearly 19.6 billion USD.

All three sectors of agriculture, industry and services have developed steadily. The agricultural sector continues to maintain growth despite the impact of storms and floods in many localities. Industrial production increased by 9.2% (compared to 8.3% in the same period). Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.3% (in the same period, it increased by 8.8%).

The Government has set a GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5% for 2025. According to many experts, this is an ambitious target because to achieve growth of over 8% for the whole year, Vietnam's economy needs to grow by about 8.4% in the fourth quarter - the highest level since 2011. For the whole year of 2025 to reach 8.3%, GDP in the fourth quarter needs to increase by about 9.5%. For the whole year to reach 8.5%, GDP in the fourth quarter must reach about 10.2%. Meanwhile, the economy still faces many challenges internally as traditional growth drivers have not met expectations: Attracting large-scale foreign direct investment (FDI) is still limited; exports tend to slow down due to the impact of the new US tariff policy; disbursement of public investment capital is still slow. Although the real estate market has recorded signs of recovery in some segments, it still faces many difficulties and problems that need to be resolved.

In addition, production and business activities in some areas are still difficult, especially for small and medium enterprises; the number of enterprises ceasing operations remains high. The domestic commodity market continues to be affected by global economic developments, fluctuations in imported raw material costs, exchange rates and dependence on external supply sources.

Synchronously and drastically deploy many solutions

Many experts believe that to achieve the growth target of over 8%, it is necessary to synchronously and drastically implement many solutions. The most important of which is to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital at the end of the year, especially for important national projects. Strong disbursement will help increase total demand and spread to the supply sector. At the same time, it is necessary to improve productivity and quality of industrial products and services based on innovation; promote trade promotion, distribute goods via digital platforms and support market information and legal matters for businesses...

Producing household appliances for export at Sunhouse Group's factory (Ngoc Liep Industrial Park). Photo: Nhat Nam

At the regular Government meeting in October 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that to achieve a growth rate of over 8% for the whole year of 2025, GDP in the fourth quarter needs to increase by over 8.4%, of which industry must increase by 9.4%; services by 8.3%; agriculture by 4%; striving for the digital economy to account for about 20% of GDP.

From there, the Prime Minister requested maximum focus on traditional growth drivers. Regarding investment, strive to disburse 100% of public investment capital, reform administrative procedures, strongly attract FDI and encourage private investment. Regarding consumption, develop the domestic market, promote e-commerce; strengthen trade promotion, promotions, fairs; exempt and reduce taxes and fees, especially during holidays and Tet. Regarding export, it is necessary to implement large-scale promotion programs in key markets such as: European Union (EU), United States, Japan, Korea...

In addition, new growth drivers need to be promoted synchronously. Especially science and technology, innovation, digital transformation; green economy, circular economy, creative economy; international financial centers, free trade zones, new business models; new industries and fields such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, renewable energy; regional connectivity, urban development; innovation, institutional improvement...

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Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Head of the National Accounts System Department (General Statistics Office):
Prioritize industries and fields that create large spillover effects

To promote economic growth, it is necessary to prioritize a number of industries and sectors that have the potential to create large spillover effects, both stimulating domestic aggregate demand and increasing export value. First, it is necessary to accelerate the disbursement of public investment, striving to complete 100% of the assigned capital plan because this is the key to stimulating the construction sector, materials industry and related services.

Ministries, sectors and localities need to prioritize thoroughly removing obstacles in site clearance, investment procedures and contractor selection to ensure projects are implemented on schedule; it is necessary to speed up the approval and promotion of foreign direct investment projects, especially in high-tech processing and manufacturing sectors such as chip production, electronic components and renewable energy. Along with that, developing export-oriented processing and manufacturing industries is necessary to maintain high growth rates in export turnover in the context of recovering global demand.

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Mr. Nguyen Van Hien, Vice Principal of Gia Dinh University:
Removing "bottlenecks" in major projects

Public investment is considered an important lever to promote economic growth. In 2025, the scale of public investment capital of the whole country will reach nearly 900,000 billion VND, a record high ever. The Government aims to disburse 100% of the capital plan. Therefore, all levels and sectors need to resolutely, synchronously and effectively implement solutions to promote disbursement of public investment capital. In particular, in addition to high political determination, all levels and sectors need to clearly define the responsibility of the head in directing, urging and taking direct responsibility for the progress of disbursement of public investment capital in the units and localities under their management.

In particular, ministries and branches should focus on immediately removing "bottlenecks" in large, key national projects, because these are projects that absorb high capital and have strong spillover effects on the economy. At the same time, the Government and ministries and branches should work directly with localities and contractors to promptly handle problems related to procedures, site clearance, counterpart funds and construction materials.

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Mr. Nguyen Van Chien, Dong Ngac ward:
Firmly control prices and support vulnerable groups

The Government’s determination to set an economic growth target of over 8%, even 8.3-8.5% in 2025, demonstrates its strong determination. Many sectors such as tourism, services, construction, trade, etc. are gradually recovering, and if properly supported, these sectors can make a strong contribution to growth. With drastic implementation of solutions, the high growth target can be achieved.

I hope that the economic growth of over 8% will go hand in hand with improving the quality of public services, enhancing the efficiency of state management, promoting digital transformation in education, health care and public administration to reduce time and costs for society. High growth is only truly meaningful when accompanied by price stability, good control of inflation and ensuring social security. Therefore, I hope that the Government will continue to be steadfast in its goal of controlling prices, ensuring the supply of goods, and at the same time supporting vulnerable groups and low-income workers.

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