To achieve the target, Ho Chi Minh City needs double-digit growth in the third quarter.

Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS) has just released scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City's economic growth in the second half of the year.

According to HIDS, since April, some economic growth drivers have shown signs of improvement. Up to now, these economic growth drivers have continued to maintain their recovery momentum, while some other drivers have begun to improve, such as public investment and consumer demand.

In the second quarter of 2023, Ho Chi Minh City regained growth momentum, although not at the expected high level, it brought many prospects for the remaining months of 2023. As a result, the city's first 6 months of 2023 is estimated to increase by 3.55% over the same period in 2022.

This agency has proposed economic growth scenarios for the third quarter, nine months and fourth quarter of 2023 for Ho Chi Minh City to achieve the set growth target of 7.5-8%.

Specifically, to achieve the economic growth target of 7.5% in 2023, the third quarter of 2023 will grow from 11.31-15.35%; the first 9 months of 2023 will grow from 5.3-6.67% and the fourth quarter of 2023 will grow from 7.98-11.89%.

To achieve the economic growth target of 8% in 2023, the third quarter of 2023 will grow from 12.81-16%; the first 9 months of 2023 will grow from 6.14-7.92% and the fourth quarter of 2023 will grow from 9.35-12.45%.

Two economic growth scenarios of Ho Chi Minh City (Source: HIDS).

HIDS assessed that the growth rate of 7.5% for the whole year is the highest expected scenario.

According to the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office, the city's gross regional domestic product (GRDP) in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 5.87% (more than 8 times higher than the first quarter). It is estimated that GRDP in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 3.55% over the same period. This growth rate is recognized as a great effort of the locality.

In addition to growth scenarios, HIDS also identifies a number of risks that will negatively impact the second, third and entire year of 2023.

Differences in monetary policy responses among major economies are causing exchange rate volatility among currencies, which will negatively affect import and export activities.

Foreign direct investment in the city has not shown any signs of improvement, still decreasing compared to the same period last year; while this is also one of the main driving forces for the city's growth.

In the last month of the second quarter of 2023, the pressure on maturing individual corporate bonds continued to increase, while the cash flow mobilized through this channel continued to flow "dripping". The list of businesses with delayed payments continued to lengthen.

The real estate market is gloomy. If the real estate market does not show more positive signs in the last 6 months of 2023, it will affect related industries such as construction and construction materials production.

Consumers tend to save on spending and reduce non-essential consumption. In the first 6 months of the year, revenue from other consumer services is estimated to have decreased by 4.6% compared to the same period last year.

The employment index in June and the first 6 months of 2023 both decreased compared to the same period last year. It should be noted that the risk of export orders will continue to decrease if major economies in the world continue to decline, the possibility of labor cuts increases.

Remittances to Ho Chi Minh City increased, estimated at 4.4 billion USD in 6 months . Remittances in Ho Chi Minh City in the first 6 months of 2023 are estimated to reach 4.4 billion USD, equal to 66% compared to 2022. From the beginning of 2021 to June 2023, the amount of remittances in the city also increased sharply compared to the first half of the previous term.

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