What if the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities?

If US President Donald Trump decides to use the largest US bomb, the GBU-57, to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, the blast would likely injure workers or anyone remaining in the area but would not cause a nuclear explosion or release radioactive material, nuclear experts and former officials told NBC News .

Located south of Iran's capital Tehran, the Fordow plant is used to enrich uranium. Fordow enriches uranium to 60%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). That's much higher than the 3-5% needed for most nuclear power plants and closer to the 90% needed to make a nuclear warhead.

Uranium and its chemical products can be harmful if ingested or handled without protective equipment but would not cause a major explosion or widespread contamination of the area, analysts say. A nuclear disaster would only occur if Fordow contained nuclear reactors or warheads, neither of which are present at Fordow, according to international monitoring groups and experts.

There will be no disaster like Chernobyl.

The bombing would have killed anyone still inside the nuclear facility, said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the British Army’s Chemical, Biological, Nuclear and Radiological Regiment. “That’s because the warhead weighs 2.5 tonnes,” he said, referring to the world’s largest non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-57, which is only possessed by the United States.

Fordow, an Iranian uranium enrichment facility, before and after 2005 (left to right). Photo: The Guardian .

“But it won’t be like Chernobyl,” de Bretton-Gordon said. “Destroying uranium won’t create a nuclear explosion. Nuclear explosions are very complex science , and that’s why building a nuclear bomb is so difficult.”

There is also little chance of a leak or release of radioactive material affecting the surrounding area, according to Mark Nelson, founder and chief executive of Radiant Energy Group, a Chicago-based research consulting firm.

Because “the radioactive materials at Fordow are only very weakly radioactive,” he said, if this were a nuclear plant or a nuclear missile site, there could be “fission products” — substances that uranium breaks down into in a nuclear reaction — that would cause a nuclear disaster.

Iran said Fordow was designed to house 3,000 of these centrifuges. The facility’s “size and configuration” are “inconsistent with a peaceful program,” former President Obama said in 2009.

Centrifuges used to enrich uranium in Iran in 2021. Photo: Reuters .

Observers like de Bretton-Gordon have suggested that a giant US bomb could be powerful enough not only to destroy the nuclear facility but also to bury it under a collapsing mountain. This could have a similar effect to the protected zone built around Chernobyl after the 1986 disaster, de Bretton-Gordon said.

While the Chernobyl protection zone was 12 metres thick, at Fordow the protection zone will be around 60 metres thick, de Bretton-Gordon said. This does not mean the risk of nuclear contamination is zero.

Small risk of contamination

If uranium gas is released, it decomposes into hydrofluoric acid, a poison that causes deep burns if exposed without protective equipment, and can cause serious damage to the heart, lungs, and nervous system if inhaled.

Chernobyl nuclear power plant after the explosion in 1986. Photo: Reuters .

“This is a very dangerous chemical without proper protective equipment and safety procedures,” said Nelson at Radiant Energy Group. Anyone who survives the explosion, or rescuers without the necessary protective equipment, will face very serious consequences, experts say, but that’s if they’re very close and unprotected.

There is also a chance that radioactive material could leak into any water sources that flow over the mountain. But the levels of radiation would likely be low, detectable but not harmful, both Nelson and de Bretton-Gordon said.

Nelson agreed that all of these risks were still much smaller than the threat posed by the US bomb itself, with a warhead of more than 2.5 tons and a total weight of up to 14 tons.

Source: https://znews.vn/dieu-gi-se-xay-ra-neu-my-nem-bom-co-so-hat-nhan-iran-post1562551.html