What will “tilt the balance” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024

2023 began with high hopes that a carefully planned counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army would change the course of the war with Russia. But that did not materialize, and no breakthroughs were made. In 2024, the fighting could get even more difficult.

Military experts and defense analysts predict that heavy fighting will likely continue into the new year, but Kiev’s forces are unlikely to mount any further counterattacks. Meanwhile, Russia will likely focus on consolidating the areas it controls, especially on the eastern front.

Not only on the battlefield, military experts say the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 will also be decided thousands of miles away in the United States – Ukraine's largest sponsor.

Complete the mission excellently

“War is an uncertain endeavor,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told CNBC. “The Russians could win the war, the Ukrainians could win the war. We’re in a situation where if there’s no clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate and perhaps a frozen conflict for the foreseeable future.”

What could tip the balance, in Mr Twitty’s view, is if the Ukrainians no longer get the reinforcements, equipment and manpower they need. Then the war could tilt in Russia’s favour.

As hopes of victory fade, the war between Ukraine and Russia could get even tougher in 2024.

In the view of White House diplomats, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a “waiting game” after two years of fighting, betting that Western support will gradually crumble, fractured by political divisions, eroded by war fatigue and distracted by other issues, such as the issue around Taiwan (China) and Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip.

“It was a good year, I would even call it a great year” for Mr. Putin, said Mathieu Boulegue, a fellow with the Russia-Eurasia Program at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Western sanctions are hitting the Russian economy hard but not crippling. Russian forces still largely dictate what happens on the battlefield, where their defenses, backed by dense minefields, have largely stalled Ukraine’s months-long counteroffensive.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Moscow’s main objectives in the war in Ukraine over the past 12 months have been “successfully accomplished.” In a statement published by Russian media on December 26, Shoigu said Russia’s main goal throughout 2023 is to “prevent a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces.” “This task has been successfully accomplished,” he said.

World - What will — Russian soldiers during a field exercise in the special military operation zone in Ukraine. Photo: Sputnik

The counteroffensive was launched before Ukrainian forces were fully ready, a hasty political effort to demonstrate that Western aid could turn the tide of the war, said Marina Miron, of King's College London's defence studies department.

“The expectations for the counterattack were unrealistic,” said Ms. Miron. “It turned out to be a failure in the end.”

But Ukraine says its counteroffensive began later than planned, allowing Russian forces to dig in, build formidable defenses and lay mines in Ukraine’s path. Kiev blames the slow start to its ambitious military operation on the delay in the arrival of vital Western aid.

Regardless, “The initiative in this war is clearly shifting to Russia and that is not the situation we expected at the start of 2023, but that is an honest assessment of where we are now,” said General Richard Barrons, former head of Britain’s Joint Forces Command.

No breakthrough

A year ago, international military support for Ukraine was solid, with NATO pledging to support Kiev “for as long as necessary” as the Eastern European nation braces for a war against Russia starting in February 2022.

However, in the counteroffensive that began in the summer of 2023, the challenge facing Ukrainian forces was clear as they struggled to penetrate fortified Russian positions and defenses along a frontline of more than 600 miles (1,000 km) in the south and east of the country.

After making some small advances, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been locked in a battle of attrition with neither side making significant gains. Ukrainian military officials admit that expectations of a major breakthrough in the counteroffensive have not been met.

Fierce fighting is likely to continue into the new year, with much depending on the presidential election in the United States, Ukraine's biggest military backer.

However, Ukrainian leaders say Russian forces have suffered heavy losses and their forces have made important progress in other areas such as the Black Sea with daring Ukrainian attacks on Russian bases and assets in Crimea this summer forcing the Russian navy to withdraw several warships from Sevastopol, giving Kiev victory in the Battle of the Black Sea.

Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain and snow making offensive and reconnaissance operations difficult. However, heavy fighting continues, particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the east, where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent confirmed advances.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted last week that Russian forces will likely maintain offensive operations in many areas of the front, during the most difficult weather period of the autumn-winter season, “in an effort to seize and maintain the initiative” ahead of the Russian presidential election in March 2024.

Meanwhile, “Ukrainian forces established and consolidated defensive positions to preserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts,” ISW noted in an analysis.

Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate. A senior army general warned last week that frontline Ukrainian troops were facing a shortage of artillery and had scaled back some military operations due to a lack of foreign support.

Disaster for American interests

Another year of war in Europe has certainly drained the West's military resources as well as its political appetite for maintaining massive amounts of military aid to Ukraine.

Continued funding for Ukraine is no longer guaranteed in 2024 due to the fact that the US presidential election could herald a seismic shift in attitudes and support towards Kiev.

In particular, all eyes are on former US President Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, who built a close relationship with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his presidency (2016-2020).

There are concerns that aid to Ukraine could be quickly shelved, given Mr Trump’s previously good relations with Moscow and his “America First” policy. Defense analysts agree that much of the aid outlook for Ukraine depends on the outcome of the November 2024 vote in the US.

“I think it’s important to understand the extent to which Ukraine is dependent on the United States at the moment, because Ukraine is significantly more dependent on the United States than it is on the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, a defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told CNBC.

“If the US election goes against Ukraine, coupled with the fact that the EU is not really involved – given that its ammunition production is far from where it should be to give Ukraine a hope of survival and a hope of victory – then that is not an optimistic forecast for 2024,” said Cranny-Evans.

Complaints of discontent about continued aid to Ukraine have been heard in some Republican strongholds in the US for months now, as well as in Ukraine's neighbors in Eastern Europe.

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC that he believes U.S. and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved in January, saying he believes the funding will help Ukraine get through another year militarily. However, Volker also said the aid packages should include more advanced weapons for Ukraine, such as F-16 fighter jets that have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

Ukrainian pilots are now starting training on the jets but it could be several months before they are deployed in Ukraine. The US has not supplied F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to deliver the fighters.

“Some things have to change,” Volker told CNBC. “We should lift the restrictions on the weapons that we are providing. We have not provided the longest-range missiles and we have not delivered any Western aircraft to Ukraine. Those things have to happen. And I think we have to try to give Ukraine more of a technological edge,” the former ambassador noted.

Mr. Volker believes that Mr. Trump’s presidency may not be as disastrous as feared for Ukraine, but said it would make future funding uncertain.

“I don’t think that even if Trump were elected, he would abandon support for Ukraine in general, because that would be a disaster for US interests and would look like a failure… But it’s unclear exactly what he would do to try to end the war.”

For his part, Mr. Trump has repeatedly stated that he could resolve the Ukraine war “in a day” if re-elected, and has said he would convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal.

What direction for the conflict?

Russia has shown it is ready for a long-term conflict in Ukraine and is capable of sending hundreds of thousands of additional troops into the fight. President Putin announced at his year-end press conference that 617,000 troops are currently operating in Ukraine.

The Russian leader also said there was no need to mobilize troops a second time at the moment, but earlier in December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of members of the Russian armed forces by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million.

Russia is also ramping up military spending by 2024, with nearly 30% of its financial spending going to the armed forces. The country’s military-industrial complex has also ramped up production of hardware ranging from drones to fighter jets.

Ukraine's defense ministry said last week that its main goal by 2024 is to boost its domestic defense industry amid uncertain future supplies from Western allies.

They have also changed their conscription laws, anticipating the need to bolster their forces, which are smaller than Russia’s but better trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that the military had requested up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear “more arguments” to support the sensitive and expensive proposal.

Video shows the ongoing attack in the direction of Maryinka, Donetsk region, late December 2023. Source: Ukraine Watch

With both Ukraine and Russia heavily invested in the war, it is unlikely that any negotiations will be held to end the conflict or agree to a ceasefire. Defense analysts say neither side wants to negotiate unless they are in a stronger position and can dictate the terms.

“If a Republican wins the 2024 US presidential election, especially if it is Donald Trump, and if funding is significantly reduced, the pressure on Ukraine to negotiate will increase,” Mario Bikarski, Europe and Russia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an independent research organization of The Economist Group, told CNBC.

“Of course, Ukraine does not want to negotiate right now… but in the current circumstances, they will have no choice but to comply with it. And the question remains whether Russia is ready to negotiate because if there are signs that the West will stop supporting Ukraine and Ukraine will be forced into these negotiations, Russia may see this as another opportunity to consolidate more interests,” the expert said.

Defense experts also told CNBC that their base case scenario for 2024 is a continuation of the current intensity of fighting, accompanied by a similar sense of stalemate where neither side can make much progress on the ground and seize or regain territory .

Minh Duc (According to CNBC, Al Jazeera, Newsweek, The National News)

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