Vietnam and Thailand still have 20% chance to attend Asian Cup: Heavy loss of points, FIFA relegation

The second round of the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers witnessed a surprise when the two strongest teams in Southeast Asia, Vietnam and Thailand, both suffered bitter defeats, with only a 20% chance of entering the finals and being relegated from FIFA.

Malaysia changes the game, Vietnam and Thailand teams are on their own

Malaysian press highly appreciated the home team's performance after the 4-0 victory over Vietnam at Bukit Jalil Stadium on the evening of June 10, thanks to the brand new naturalized players who immediately made an impression.

Coach Kim Sang-sik and the Vietnamese team players will overcome disappointment to regain the opportunity to participate in the 2027 Asian Cup.

Photo: Ngoc Linh

Journalist T. Avineshwaran of The Star expressed: "Malaysian football will never be the same again. Tonight, we not only defeated the Vietnamese team, we also tore apart a team that has haunted us for 11 long years. But honestly, the change in identity in this Malaysian team needs time to settle and also acceptance."

Meanwhile, the New Straits Times (Malaysia) admitted: "Without additional naturalized players, it would be difficult for the Malaysian team to make a difference against an experienced Vietnamese team. Naturalized players like Joao Figueiredo and Rodrigo Holgado made the difference, they "torn apart" the Vietnamese defense and scored 2 goals, before Corbin Ong and Dion Cools sealed the victory."

'Dissecting' Vietnam's defeat against Malaysia: Naturalization and what else?

The change of the Malaysian team, like Indonesian football has been doing recently, is gradually changing the game in Southeast Asian football.

The two strongest teams in the region, Vietnam and Thailand, have both slowed down, as these two football nations have focused on developing their internal strength and using more local players. They have also naturalized their players, but not massively and selectively. Whether the recent failures will cause Vietnamese and Thai football to follow the path of Indonesia and Malaysia is still unclear.

However, in the immediate future, the possibility of both teams not participating in the final round of the 2027 Asian Cup is quite high. According to Footy Rankings , the Vietnamese team in Group F only has a 20% chance of advancing after losing heavily to direct opponent Malaysia.

Previously, after the opening match, the Vietnamese team, with a 5-0 victory over Laos, had a 67% chance of qualifying for the finals. However, this rate has now dropped significantly. Meanwhile, Malaysia has increased its chances to 80%. The two teams Vietnam and Malaysia will meet in the return match on March 31, 2026.

Will the Vietnamese national team players soon find themselves again?

Photo: Ngoc Linh

Similarly, Thailand's 1-3 away loss to their direct competitor Turkmenistan on June 10 in Group D also put them in the same situation as Vietnam. Thailand also has only about 20%, or even less, of a chance to qualify for the finals and must also beat Turkmenistan in the return match at home on March 31, 2026.

On the FIFA rankings, the Vietnamese and Thai teams both lost a lot of points and dropped in rank on the latest FIFA rankings announced on July 10.

The Vietnamese team lost 13.99 points to Malaysia and fell to 113th place in the world . Meanwhile, Thailand lost 16.27 points and also fell out of the top 100 (101st place in the world).

Behind, the Indonesian team, thanks to the victory over China (1-0), was awarded 15.05 points, but was deducted 3.42 points for the heavy loss to Japan (0-6) in the 3rd qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup, rising to 118th place, not far behind Vietnam and Thailand. Malaysia also rose 5 places to 126th place in the world.

These will be the 4 teams in Southeast Asia that will have fierce competition in regional and continental tournaments in the coming time. In particular, the internal strength of the Vietnamese and Thai teams will certainly be consolidated. These are still the 2 strongest football teams in the region and cannot be underestimated, CNN Indonesia commented.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/doi-tuyen-viet-nam-va-thai-lan-con-20-co-hoi-du-asian-cup-mat-diem-nang-ne-rot-hang-fifa-1852506110729263.htm