Strong capital inflow drives MXV-Index to new high.

Strong capital flows entered the global commodities market yesterday (January 26).

At closing, overwhelming buying pressure pushed the MXV-Index up 3.22% to 2,732 points, extending its winning streak to a fifth consecutive session. Silver continued to be a hot commodity for domestic and international investors, surpassing the $115/ounce mark. Meanwhile, the coffee market also began to heat up.

Silver prices surpass $115 per ounce.

Closing yesterday's trading session on January 26th, the metals market continued to attract attention from domestic and international investors, with silver remaining the driving force behind the overall commodity market's upward trend.
Specifically, the COMEX March silver contract yesterday recorded a gain of nearly 14%, reaching $115.5 per ounce, marking its third consecutive day of price increases. Year-to-date, the price of silver has risen by 63%.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), safe-haven flows continue to shift strongly into silver amid increasing global trade risks. US President Donald Trump's tough statements on tariffs have fueled concerns about a wide-ranging trade war, particularly after he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa pushed through trade agreements with China. Despite Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's attempts to reassure the market, investor defensive sentiment remains high.

Alongside trade tensions, the market is also being impacted by uncertainties related to the US Federal Reserve (FED). The criminal investigation into FED Chairman Jerome Powell over the FED headquarters renovation project has raised questions about political pressure on the central bank, thereby shaking confidence in its independence in monetary policy.

These mounting risks dragged the Dollar Index down for the third consecutive session, losing another 0.56% to 97.05 points. The weakening US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities, especially silver, more attractive to international capital flows, thereby triggering buying pressure during the session.

With gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce, becoming prohibitively expensive for most individual investors, capital is shifting towards silver as an alternative safe haven. The gold/silver ratio is rapidly narrowing to around 50:1, indicating that silver is accelerating its efforts to close the valuation gap with gold. MXV believes that silver surpassing the psychological $100 per ounce mark is not only significant from a technical standpoint but also acts as a trigger for a series of automated buy orders, further amplifying the upward momentum.

Domestically, silver prices continued to rise for the third consecutive session, closely following global trends due to the supply being primarily dependent on imports. 999 pure silver increased by approximately 5.7%, trading in the range of 3.506 - 3.541 million VND/ounce. In the investment segment of 999 pure silver bars, significantly increased demand pushed prices up to the 4.11 - 4.25 million VND/ounce range.

Supply pressure supports a rise in coffee prices.

Following the general market trend, the industrial raw materials group also attracted attention yesterday as the prices of both coffee commodities closed in positive territory. Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee futures for March delivery increased by more than 1.5% to $7,853 per ton; while the Robusta coffee futures contract for the same month also increased by more than 1.3% to $4,197 per ton.

According to MXV, concerns about global coffee supply continued to support the price of this commodity during the session.

On January 19th, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) announced that Brazil's green coffee exports in December fell by 18.4% year-on-year to 2.86 million bags. Specifically, Arabica exports totaled only about 2.6 million bags, down 10% year-on-year, while Robusta exports saw a significant decrease of 61%, falling to approximately 222,000 bags. Overall for 2025, Brazil's coffee exports are projected to reach just over 40 million 60kg bags, 20.8% lower than in 2024.

In Vietnam, data from the Customs Department shows that exports of green coffee beans in the first 20 days of January 2026 also remained low, reaching over 103,000 tons, equivalent to a decrease of up to 29% compared to the same period last year, further reinforcing the picture of tight supply across the region.

The price increase is also supported by inventory levels in key consumer markets. Data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF) shows total inventories as of October at only 471,389 tons, falling to their lowest level in a decade. In addition, the Brazilian Real's appreciation of approximately 9% against the USD in 2025 is also causing Brazilian farmers to limit sales, waiting for better prices, further slowing the flow of goods to international markets.

Regarding weather conditions, Somar Meteorologia stated that the Minas Gerais region – Brazil's key coffee-growing area – received only 33.9 mm of rain in the week ending January 16th, equivalent to approximately 53% of the historical average. This is affecting plant growth, raising concerns about a medium-term supply shortage, which could contribute to higher prices.

Back in the domestic market, a cautious sentiment prevails among both export businesses and manufacturers, keeping market liquidity low.

In key raw material producing areas, the purchase price offered by export warehouses is currently commonly in the range of 100,000 - 100,100 VND/kg. Some other purchasing units list lower prices, around 99,500 VND/kg. In the Chu Se area, supply warehouses are quoting purchase prices ranging from 100,000 - 100,300 VND/kg (price at the seller's warehouse).

On the supply side, although farmers continue to sell regularly, the scale of each transaction is quite limited, averaging only 2 to 3 tons per time. Due to significantly lower coffee prices compared to the same period last year, farmers tend to release their goods in small quantities, hoping for price rebounds. In response, dealers and warehouses are also maintaining a cautious purchasing pattern to sustain operations.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/dong-tien-do-manh-mxvindex-lap-dinh-cao-moi-20260127092742793.htm