Cautious cash flow, world commodity market temporarily 'keeps pace'

A cautious sentiment prevailed in the world raw material market yesterday (October 7). Domestic and international investors temporarily "held their positions" while weighing the risk of oversupply and the prospect of slow demand recovery. Rubber prices continued to fall due to abundant supply, while crude oil fluctuated around the short-term bottom after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.1% to 2,281 points, reflecting a period of calm before the market establishes a new trend.

Rubber prices "slid" in the low price range

Closing yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw material market was deep in red. In particular, rubber prices continued to be under pressure from the prospect of abundant supply while consumption demand showed signs of slowing down. Specifically, TSR20 rubber prices recorded a decrease of more than 0.5% to 1,704 USD/ton while RSS3 rubber prices continued to remain low, around 1,983 USD/ton.

According to the latest report of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to reach about 14.892 million tons, up 0.5% compared to 2024. Among the major producing countries, Thailand is forecast to grow by 1.2%, China by 6%, India by 5.6%, Cambodia and Myanmar by 5.6% and 5.3% respectively, while the group of other countries will increase by 3.5%. In contrast, Indonesia will decrease sharply by 9.8%, Vietnam by 1.3% and Malaysia by 4.2%.

In terms of exports, Ivory Coast - the third largest rubber producer in the world - continues to make a strong impression on the export market with outstanding growth in 2025. In the first 8 months of 2025, Ivory Coast's rubber exports reached a total of 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% over the same period in 2024 (920,000 tons). In August 2025 alone, the country's rubber export volume increased by 14.8% over the same period last year. However, August's export volume was still 8.9% lower than the previous July.

Meanwhile, rubber prices are still under strong pressure from the Chinese auto market, where fierce competition has caused both sales and prices to fall, making rubber demand more unstable. Specifically, last September, BYD recorded a 5.5% drop in sales to 396,270 vehicles, the first decline in 18 months. The company also lowered its sales target this year to 4.6 million vehicles, down 16% from the original plan.

In the domestic market, the price of latex purchased in Binh Phuoc on October 7 decreased by 5-10 VND/degree compared to the previous session, fluctuating at 405-415 VND/degree. The amount of latex purchased by factories tended to decrease due to a clear decrease in demand from China. At the same time, the price of latex in the province decreased by 500-1,000 VND/kg, reaching 19,000-20,500 VND/kg.

In addition, the latex purchase price of enterprises generally remained stable compared to the previous day. In particular, Phu Rieng rubber maintained the latex purchase price at 420 VND/kg; while the cup latex price of Ba Ria rubber fluctuated between 17,200-18,500 VND/kg.

Oil prices fluctuate, natural gas bounces back sharply

Meanwhile, the energy market yesterday recorded mixed developments. Especially the two crude oil products with two slight adjustments of less than 0.1%. At the end of the session, Brent oil price retreated to 65.45 USD/barrel, corresponding to a decrease of 0.03%; while WTI oil price inched up to 61.73 USD/barrel, recording an increase of 0.06%.

Analysts at ING bank said that OPEC+'s production increase of 137,000 barrels per day was contrary to market expectations of a stronger increase, showing the alliance's caution in the face of a forecast of global oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026.

The recent Short-Term Energy Outlook report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) further reinforced the above forecast when it said that crude oil production in the US this year is expected to reach 13.53 million barrels/day, up 0.6% from the previous forecast. This contributes to the increase in global oil production, thereby continuing to put pressure on oil prices.

On the other hand, rising demand for crude, especially in China and India, has partly supported the price increase. According to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Department of the Indian Ministry of Petroleum, fuel demand in the world's most populous country increased 7% in September compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, market reports show that Chinese oil companies are expected to add about 169 million barrels of oil to the national reserves by the end of 2026 - a factor that could contribute to maintaining stable demand in the medium term.

In another development related to the energy market, natural gas prices in the US continued to increase from the session on October 6. At the end of yesterday's trading session, the price of this commodity on the NYMEX floor increased by 4.2%, climbing to the mark of 3.5 USD/MMBtu, the highest level since July. The increase mainly came from the expectation of increased demand for gas as a heating fuel in the context of the cold weather forecast being announced.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/dong-tien-than-trong-thi-truong-hang-hoa-the-gioi-tam-giu-nhip-20251008082826862.htm