Storm forecast for June entering East Sea, moving towards Vietnam

Super Typhoon Usagi approaches the Philippines during the 2024 typhoon season. Photo: NOAA

The latest storm bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that one to two tropical storms are expected to enter the Philippine forecast area (PAR) in June.

In the bulletin, PAGASA weather expert Daniel Villamil presented a diagram of the four common paths of storms in June. The first two paths are scenarios of storm changes, while the latter two paths are scenarios of storm landfall.

Villamil pointed out that the low pressure area that is likely to form in June could strengthen into a storm and approach the Philippine mainland, but it could also change direction to the north or northeast, towards the northern boundary of the PAR, which is the area near Taiwan (China) and Japan.

“Even if the storm is far to the northeast of the Philippines, even if it does not make landfall, it still has the potential to attract the southwest monsoon. So even if the storm is far away, rains can still occur across the country, not directly due to the storm, but due to the strengthening of the southwest monsoon,” Mr. Villamil explained.

Villamil noted that the third and fourth tracks of the June storms are landfall scenarios. This means that storms entering the PAR could make landfall in the eastern part of South Luzon or the Eastern Visayas region of the Philippines.

June storm forecast to enter East Sea and head towards Vietnam. Photo: PAGASA

“After making landfall, the storm may move across most of the Philippine mainland. Once it reaches the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), it will continue moving westward, towards Vietnam and Hong Kong (China),” said expert Villamil.

Previously, on May 30, PAGASA officially declared the southwest monsoon season (habagat) to begin, signaling the approaching rainy season.

If it enters the PAR in June, PAGASA will assign local names to the storms based on the official list for the 2025 typhoon season. The first two names on the list are Auring and Bising. No tropical storms have entered the PAR since the start of the year.

According to the 2025 Asian Summer Climate Outlook forecast by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) predicts that in the 2025 typhoon season, the frequency of typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean and typhoons in the South China Sea will be close to normal, with the number of typhoons ranging from 27 to 29 (while the average index for the period 1991-2020 is 25), with 7 to 9 tropical storms making landfall in China (average is 7).

Storms in the 2025 season are expected to be at or above normal intensity, with a primary track to the west and northwest.

Meanwhile, the latest storm news from the Hong Kong Observatory (China) said that in the 2025 storm season, the names of storms in the northwest Pacific Ocean have been added with three new names: Bori, Saobien and Tianma. These storm names will replace the old names Doksuri, Saola and Haikui.

The new name for the 2025 typhoon season in the region was adopted at the 57th session of the Typhoon Committee, under the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the World Meteorological Organization.

Typhoon Bori, which means barley, was contributed by South Korea. Typhoon Saobien, which means starfish, was contributed by Vietnam. Typhoon Tianma, which means heavenly horse, a mythical creature in China, was contributed by China.

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