In January, Vietnam exported 134 thousand tons of coffee, worth approximately 729 million USD, up 5% in volume and 6.2% in value compared to December 2024, down 43.7% in volume and up 0.3% in value compared to January 2024, according to the General Department of Customs.
Coffee price today 2/19/2025
World coffee prices fluctuated, robusta increased again, while arabica decreased for the second session.
Domestic coffee prices have surpassed the psychological threshold of VND130,000/kg. Today, February 19, they traded between VND130,300 and VND132,000/kg. This price increase has caused domestic coffee prices in Vietnam to skyrocket. However, Vietnamese farmers are still selling cautiously, believing that prices may continue to rise.
Speculative selling in New York after last week’s overbought conditions has sent rabica prices tumbling. The coffee market appears to be on “autopilot,” overcoming each growth challenge, according to agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado. “Technically, New York coffee prices are stretched and vulnerable to correction as there are growing signs of overbought conditions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find anyone willing to bet on a decline. In fact, hedge funds continue to increase their net long positions on the coffee exchange,” it said.
Although in the long term, coffee prices are forecast by many sources to decrease by the end of 2025. But in the medium and short term, there are still many factors supporting the increase of Arabica.
Supply concerns remain the main cause as the two major Arabica markets, Brazil and Colombia, are both volatile. While Brazil is likely to have a poor crop this year with output expected to fall by about 15%, Colombian coffee is affected by concerns about tariffs on goods imported into the US.
The Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center (VITIC) has predicted that the La Nina phenomenon in 2025 could replace El Nino, affecting Brazil's key coffee growing regions. This increases the risk of frost, which could destroy coffee trees and severely impact expected output. In the 2025/26 crop year, the country's coffee output is forecast to fall to its lowest level in three years.
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| Domestic coffee prices on February 17 decreased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: ohman.vn) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on February 18, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased by 40 USD, trading at 5,738 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 41 USD, trading at 5,721 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term March 2025 continued to decrease by 0.75 cents, trading at 419.00 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term May 2025 decreased by 2.15 cents, trading at 405.25 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 17 decreased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
The market momentum is still dominated by buyers, continuing to push prices higher. But how long will this trend last?
Some argue that even the market is testing its buying power, seeking its financial limits. This is linked to consumer affordability and traders’ credit capacity to maintain positions, reinforcing the view that the current coffee market has lost touch with fundamentals and is increasingly driven by financial challenges.
Experts predict that coffee prices will remain very high until at least July. However, they also recommend that farmers should not push prices too high to avoid financial risks.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1922025-gia-ca-phe-bat-che-do-tu-dong-tang-gia-chuyen-gia-phan-tich-thuc-te-the-nao-304820.html
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