Coffee prices suddenly dropped shockingly?

Are Robusta and Arabica coffee prices entering a new price increase cycle? Export coffee prices are on a strong upward trend, will Robusta coffee return to its peak?

Coffee prices on May 21, 2024 in the domestic market are forecast to continue to increase because the coffee market has many positive supporting factors. Robusta coffee supply from Vietnam is still in short supply and is expected to continue until the new crop begins.

In addition, experts said that the world coffee price market on online trading floors will decline after the high session at the end of the week. According to the assessment, the first trading session of the week in New York is just the beginning after a period of price reduction and fluctuations due to liquidation.

In the London market, coffee prices are likely to return to $3,540 soon, and if they succeed in breaking through the $3,612 level - the first stop-loss level that the sellers are placing - the Robusta coffee market could create a new rally.

Domestic coffee prices increase

Domestic coffee prices today, May 20, 2024, continued to increase, an increase of 1,500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 103,800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 104,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, today's coffee purchase price in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces is 103,400 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 104,000 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 103,300 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today, May 20, in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 103,800 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 103,900 VND/kg.

World coffee prices fall

In addition, world coffee prices on May 20, 2024 of three online coffee trading floors had mixed increases and decreases, tending to decrease sharply after high increases at the end of last week.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:20 on May 20, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices have turned down sharply compared to the previous trading session, fluctuating at 3277 - 3489 USD/ton.

Dự báo giá cà phê ngày 21/5/2024: Giá cà phê bất ngờ giảm sốc?

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 3,489 USD/ton, down 0.82% or 29 USD/ton. The delivery term for September 2024 was 3,429 USD/ton, down 0.70% or 24 USD/ton; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,351 USD/ton, down 0.86% or 29 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,277 USD/ton, down 0.52% or 17 USD.

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor at 20:20 on May 20, 2024 also decreased simultaneously in all terms, fluctuating between 202.00 - 204.90 cents/lb.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 204.90 cents/lb; down 1.70 cents/lb compared to the end of the previous session. The September 2024 delivery period is 203.90 cents/lb, down 1.55 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 202.80 cents/lb, down 1.70 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 202.00 cents/lb, down 1.75 cents/lb.

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee at 20:20 on May 20, 2024 fluctuated depending on the trading period, ranging from 245.70 - 251.90 USD/ton.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the coffee price for May 2024 delivery is 251.90 USD/ton, an increase of 11.40 USD. The July 2024 delivery is 257.80 USD/ton, an increase of 11.50 USD; the September 2024 delivery is 248.00 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.55 USD and the December 2024 delivery is 245.70 USD/ton, an increase of 8.55 USD.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Robusta coffee supplies from Vietnam remain tight and are expected to continue into the new crop. Vietnam’s April coffee exports fell 19.5% year-on-year to 152,073 tonnes, according to data released by the General Department of Vietnam Customs late last week.

According to the Vietnam Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change, the El Nino phenomenon has caused drought in Vietnam's coffee growing areas this year. Although the Central Highlands coffee growing areas have had rain, information from many Vietnamese coffee growers' forums shows that it seems that the rain has come late to save the fruit for the 2024/2025 crop to be harvested in October 2024.

In the first 7 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to April 2024), coffee exports reached more than 1.1 million tons, down 1.5% compared to the same period in the 2022-2023 crop year. With this result, Vietnam has exported about 65-70% of the total expected output of about 1.6-1.7 million tons of the current crop year.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2152024-gia-ca-phe-bat-ngo-giam-soc-321297.html